A few weeks ago I wrote that the economic arguments in the British referendum debate had been well and truly won by the Remain side – and, on Bill Clinton’s principle that “it’s the economy, stupid!”, that was that. Game over.
It was far from over. The economics were soon submerged in emotional and moral arguments, which swept it aside: immigration, particularly by the Turks; loss of sovereignty; and the fear that Britain was going to get drawn down the road to closer integration inside the European Union. The polls, which started off reassuring David Cameron that he would win a handsome victory, swung the other way, causing panic in the Remain camp and share prices and the pound to fall sharply.
With days to go, the polls are running neck-and-neck. The markets, watching the bad-tempered debate in growing bewilderment, decided over the weekend that enough was enough and that sense and the Remainers will prevail. As Asian markets opened yesterday, the pound powered ahead, recording its biggest one-day rise since the banking crisis in 2008 when the whole British financial system was on the verge of collapse.
But if Thursday’s vote goes Mr Cameron’s way it will not be because of the economic arguments. Forecasts have been coming so thick and fast with warnings of hellfire and brimstone attached to them that the British public has switched off. The people do not believe any of them, and with good reason: how many economists, after all, forecast the crash of 2008-09? Why should they be right now?
No, that has little to do with the rising optimism in the Remain camp. The swing back, which the market antennae picked up long before the pollsters, has come from the brutal murder of an engaging young Labour MP and passionate Remainer, Jo Cox. European markets soon picked up the scent with stock prices following the upwards trajectory of sterling.
Of course the polls and the markets could be wrong, but, in a curious way, markets seldom are. The Cox tragedy has caused voters to pause and think again about the fateful path they were blindly heading down without seriously considering the economic consequences.
No one much likes the EU (particularly, as a recent poll showed, the French and Germans) but, as the Economist remarked last week, even if EU membership has unsatisfactory aspects "it beats all plausible alternatives".
Win or lose, it has been a dirty, soul-destroying and bruising debate that has frequently dropped into the puerile. Reputations have been damaged, including that of Mr Cameron but more so that of his chancellor, George Osborne, who has seen his chances of succeeding him as prime minister recede dramatically. Boris Johnson, the other contender and chief Brexiteer, has also emerged badly, seen as an unprincipled opportunist and an oaf (which he is not – in fact there is a very keen brain underneath that matt of thatch).
The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, supposedly campaigning on the Remain side, has hardly said anything and Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, capped his absurd campaign with a poster depicting a long queue of migrants at the borders of the EU with the caption “Breaking Point”. That caused even a horror-struck Boris to disown him and every political leader to condemn him as racist.
If the vote is a narrow one, either way a second referendum is emerging as a real possibility. In the end that may be the most elegant solution. But it is high risk. Better the devil you know: vote Remain.
Ivan Fallon is a former business editor of The Sunday Times.
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Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club race card
5pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic (PA) Prestige; Dh110,000; 1,400m
5.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic (PA) Prestige; Dh110,000; 1,400m
6pm: Maiden (PA); Dh80,000; 1,600m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (PA) Listed; Dh180,000; 1,600m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap; Dh70,000; 2,200m
7.30pm: Handicap (PA); Dh100,000; 2,400m
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
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Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
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Navdeep Suri, India's Ambassador to the UAE
There has been a longstanding need from the Indian community to have a religious premises where they can practise their beliefs. Currently there is a very, very small temple in Bur Dubai and the community has outgrown this. So this will be a major temple and open to all denominations and a place should reflect India’s diversity.
It fits so well into the UAE’s own commitment to tolerance and pluralism and coming in the year of tolerance gives it that extra dimension.
What we will see on April 20 is the foundation ceremony and we expect a pretty broad cross section of the Indian community to be present, both from the UAE and abroad. The Hindu group that is building the temple will have their holiest leader attending – and we expect very senior representation from the leadership of the UAE.
When the designs were taken to the leadership, there were two clear options. There was a New Jersey model with a rectangular structure with the temple recessed inside so it was not too visible from the outside and another was the Neasden temple in London with the spires in its classical shape. And they said: look we said we wanted a temple so it should look like a temple. So this should be a classical style temple in all its glory.
It is beautifully located - 30 minutes outside of Abu Dhabi and barely 45 minutes to Dubai so it serves the needs of both communities.
This is going to be the big temple where I expect people to come from across the country at major festivals and occasions.
It is hugely important – it will take a couple of years to complete given the scale. It is going to be remarkable and will contribute something not just to the landscape in terms of visual architecture but also to the ethos. Here will be a real representation of UAE’s pluralism.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
Killing of Qassem Suleimani