The European Central Bank (ECB) at the beginning of this month issued a package of monetary policy measures and promised more to come if needed to help stave off deflation and support the euro zone’s fragile economic recovery. David Zahn, the head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, explains why investors should be looking at European assets, including in Spain and Italy, as a result.
Which of the announcements have the most impact on investors?
I think the proposed targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), which will allow banks to borrow from the ECB at ultra-low rates, are what people will be most focused on because they offer the prospect of cheap funding to banks for a considerable amount of time – four years. The ECB has also reasserted that it will consider taking further quantitative measures in the future other than cutting interest rates. It has confirmed that, if economic data continues to be poor, it will do more.
How have the announcements been received by the markets so far?
The ECB telegraphed the rate cut quite well, in my view. The TLTROs are being framed with the appropriate term – in the past it tried to do them too short, and that gets it into other issues. I think the market has seen the announcements as more evidence of the ECB’s accommodative approach. We sense too that the ECB president, Mario Draghi, was more dovish in his speech. I think overall that is very positive for European fixed income. But I also think there is more that can be done, and he has left the door wide open for more to happen.
And what is your view of the approach?
We think the ECB is looking to hit on various different levers, but one of the main ones is getting bank lending back on track, and I think that is important because if you get bank lending going it tends to help growth. I like the fact that Draghi has not tried to pin the ECB’s success all on one particular strategy. He has put out several different ways of creating liquidity. The ECB will probably see which one works best and do more of that, or try something different. We see evidence that the ECB is trying different things to increase liquidity and attempt to reignite inflation in the euro zone.
Tell us about the impact of the announced negative interest rate on the ECB’s deposit facility.
I think it’s largely symbolic. It’s only on the excess reserves that the banks hold, so I don’t think it’s going to have much of a market impact. Instead, I think the move suggests that the ECB will continue to be accommodative.
What is the impact of this going to be outside the euro zone?
The ECB action reflects the fact that central banks in different parts of the world are in very different parts of the economic cycle. In Europe, the ECB is very clearly still loosening policy and will continue to do so, we believe, for several years. Meanwhile, Japan is also doing outright quantitative easing and is printing money. But the United States is starting to reduce the amount of quantitative easing. Globally, it means that there is more liquidity being produced into the world than there was previously, and I think in general that’s reasonably supportive for asset prices.
For investors, what potential value does that present?
In general, I think it means investors may want to look at European assets, because it appears that accommodative actions are continuing. Obviously my remit is the bond market, and I think there is value to be found there, but I think there could be other areas that potentially offer value too. In this environment I believe what some might perceive or classify as risk assets, including high-yield corporate bonds as well as equities, could likely do better than they would if the ECB wasn’t taking these types of measures. From our point of view, we seek securities that can produce higher yields in this sort of environment. Therefore, we continue to look for relative value in fixed income among the more heavily indebted and less-wealthy members of the euro zone – known as the euro zone periphery – Spain and Italy being the two major ones.
What does the future hold for the markets, and ECB, in your view?
The main possibility, in our view, is outright quantitative easing and the purchasing of bonds. I think that is still out in the future. Mr Draghi has made it clear that it is in the ECB’s remit and is something they could consider longer-term. I think he is doing an excellent job of having the market do a lot of the work for him, as yields had been on the decline and this latest round of actions is likely to maintain that trend.
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