Several large-scale factors are set to shape global oil prices in the first quarter of this year. Developments in the US-China trade dispute, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global recession fears and US shale versus Opec cuts all exert a powerful influence on investor confidence in the oil markets.
Most institutions such as Opec and the International Monetary Fund are forecasting lower demand for oil in 2020 but there is a chance for demand to pick up if the US and China seal the second deal by the end of the year ...
The pressure cooker of the US-China trade dispute has cooled off after the phase one deal was signed, possibly avoiding further tariff hikes and trade obstacles in the near future and easing investor sentiment. If there are more signals that the negotiating teams are closer to a comprehensive and full trade agreement in the first quarter, it’s reasonable to expect more support for oil prices because the gigantic economies of the US and China would get some breathing space to recover from the damage to their manufacturing and agricultural sectors. This is looking increasingly unlikely if we consider the US elections coming up in November and President Donald Trump’s comments that he is not in a hurry to conclude a final trade deal with China.
Positive results from a boost in confidence may not set in until later in the year. Demand for crude may pick up during the course of the year because of a recovery in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, both main drivers of demand.
In the last nine months of 2019, US manufacturers and hauliers suffered a sharp decline in growth which impacted demand for petroleum products like diesel. Diesel consumption fell 3.4 per cent in the period August to October 2019 on an annual basis, meaning an overall decline in demand. In addition, although the first phase of a trade deal is signed, China has not yet lifted the 5 per cent tariff on US oil imports.
Even China’s demand for oil weakened slightly in 2019 to 9.5 per cent growth in imports versus 10.1 per cent the year before.
Most institutions such as Opec and the International Monetary Fund are forecasting lower demand for oil in 2020 but there is a chance for demand to pick up if the US and China seal the second deal by the end of the year and give trade relations a fresh start. The impact of the trade disputes on sentiment shouldn’t be underestimated because the prevailing mood since the trade disputes started in summer 2018 has been uncertainty which in turn dampens investment and curbs risk appetite.
Opec deepened its supply cuts at the end of 2019, a period in which the US Shale industry reported a higher rate of bankruptcies in what appears to be an unsustainable level of growth given lower global oil prices. Already, the US market buys domestic oil products and energy imports from overseas have fallen to 11 per cent, the lowest since 1957. Conceivably, the domestic industry could satisfy 100 per cent of US oil demand within the next year, leaving US shale with the question "what next"?
The US is now a serious player in international oil markets and competing hotly for market share, meaning that oil prices are set to stay hemmed in by the push and pull between US shale and Opec, with the exception of geopolitical flare-ups.
The supply-side risk to Middle East oil continues to be a significant factor for investors ever since the flare-up of tensions between the US and Iran in early January.
Fears of a prolonged conflict appear to have calmed but the situation is volatile and uneasy, meaning that oil prices may spike or even slump unexpectedly depending on what happens next.
Looking ahead, a bright spot for prices may be waning recession fears as investors get ready for a more robust post-trade war reality. Global recession fears were behind much of oil’s price weakness last year and may have a long-tail effect in the first quarter before receding further on more positive news from trade talks.
The upside scenario for oil prices would be a definitive resolution to the US-China trade dispute and a reduction of geopolitical tensions. The downside would be a lag between the first and second phase agreement, adding to uncertainty, and an escalation of geopolitical tensions. Investors should expect either scenario to materialise and be prepared for oil prices to react accordingly.
Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at FXTM
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
Francesco Totti's bio
Born September 27, 1976
Position Attacking midifelder
Clubs played for (1) - Roma
Total seasons 24
First season 1992/93
Last season 2016/17
Appearances 786
Goals 307
Titles (5) - Serie A 1; Italian Cup 2; Italian Supercup 2
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
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Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
if you go
The flights Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, and Royal Jordanian all offer direct, three-and-a-half-hour flights from the UAE to the Jordanian capital Amman. Alternatively, from June Fly Dubai will offer a new direct service from Dubai to Aqaba in the south of the country. See the airlines’ respective sites for varying prices or search on reliable price-comparison site Skyscanner.
The trip
Jamie Lafferty was a guest of the Jordan Tourist Board. For more information on adventure tourism in Jordan see Visit Jordan. A number of new and established tour companies offer the chance to go caving, rock-climbing, canyoning, and mountaineering in Jordan. Prices vary depending on how many activities you want to do and how many days you plan to stay in the country. Among the leaders are Terhaal, who offer a two-day canyoning trip from Dh845 per person. If you really want to push your limits, contact the Stronger Team. For a more trek-focused trip, KE Adventure offers an eight-day trip from Dh5,300 per person.
Intercontinental Cup
Namibia v UAE Saturday Sep 16-Tuesday Sep 19
Table 1 Ireland, 89 points; 2 Afghanistan, 81; 3 Netherlands, 52; 4 Papua New Guinea, 40; 5 Hong Kong, 39; 6 Scotland, 37; 7 UAE, 27; 8 Namibia, 27
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In the Restaurant: Society in Four Courses
Christoph Ribbat
Translated by Jamie Searle Romanelli
Pushkin Press
Squads
Australia: Finch (c), Agar, Behrendorff, Carey, Coulter-Nile, Lynn, McDermott, Maxwell, Short, Stanlake, Stoinis, Tye, Zampa
India: Kohli (c), Khaleel, Bumrah, Chahal, Dhawan, Shreyas, Karthik, Kuldeep, Bhuvneshwar, Pandey, Krunal, Pant, Rahul, Sundar, Umesh
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The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
A Dog's Journey
Directed by: Gail Mancuso
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott
3 out of 5 stars
Rankings
ATP: 1. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 10,955 pts; 2. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 8,320; 3. Alexander Zverev (GER) 6,475 ( 1); 5. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) 5,060 ( 1); 6. Kevin Anderson (RSA) 4,845 ( 1); 6. Roger Federer (SUI) 4,600 (-3); 7. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 4,110 ( 2); 8. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 3,960; 9. John Isner (USA) 3,155 ( 1); 10. Marin Cilic (CRO) 3,140 (-3)
WTA: 1. Naomi Osaka (JPN) 7,030 pts ( 3); 2. Petra Kvitova (CZE) 6,290 ( 4); 3. Simona Halep (ROM) 5,582 (-2); 4. Sloane Stephens (USA) 5,307 ( 1); 5. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) 5,100 ( 3); 6. Angelique Kerber (GER) 4,965 (-4); 7. Elina Svitolina (UKR) 4,940; 8. Kiki Bertens (NED) 4,430 ( 1); 9. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 3,566 (-6); 10. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) 3,485 ( 1)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Mountain Classification Tour de France after Stage 8 on Saturday:
- 1. Lilian Calmejane (France / Direct Energie) 11
- 2. Fabio Aru (Italy / Astana) 10
- 3. Daniel Martin (Ireland / Quick-Step) 8
- 4. Robert Gesink (Netherlands / LottoNL) 8
- 5. Warren Barguil (France / Sunweb) 7
- 6. Chris Froome (Britain / Team Sky) 6
- 7. Guillaume Martin (France / Wanty) 6
- 8. Jan Bakelants (Belgium / AG2R) 5
- 9. Serge Pauwels (Belgium / Dimension Data) 5
- 10. Richie Porte (Australia / BMC Racing) 4
THE SPECS
BMW X7 xDrive 50i
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Eight-speed Steptronic transmission
Power: 462hp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh600,000
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
