The International Energy Agency maintained its global oil demand forecast for 2019 despite trade war headwinds as falling oil prices will help make up for slower economic growth.
Global oil demand will reach 1.4 million barrels per day in 2019, up from 1.3 million bpd in 2018, the Paris-based energy watchdog said in a report on Friday. The IEA is more bullish than Opec, which is projecting an increase of 1.29 million bpd in oil demand in 2019, with lower Chinese demand growth compared with 2018 offset by an increase in consumption in Latin America and the Middle East from a year earlier.
“The impact of higher oil prices in 2018 is fading, which will help offset lower economic growth,” said the IEA, the energy watchdog for industrialised countries. “However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies.”
Oil demand is being affected by signs of a slowing global economy as the trade war tensions between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, intensify. The International Monetary Fund in October lowered its forecast for global economic expansion in 2019 to 3.7 per cent, the first time it cut its growth projections since July 2016. The fund cited the trade war, vulnerable emerging markets and sluggish growth in the eurozone as major contributors to its downgrade.
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US-China trade war forces IMF to cut global economic forecast for first time since July 2016
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The gloomy economic growth outlook and an oil glut has contributed to a slide of more than 30 per cent in oil prices since reaching a four-year high of $86 a barrel in early October. Brent closed Friday up 1.5 per cent to $62.7 a barrel.
Opec, which pumps more than a third of the world’s oil, and producers led by Russia, commonly known as Opec +, started this month trimming output by 1.2 million bpd as crude demand begins to falter.
Opec alone lowered its output by 751,000 bpd in December to 31.58 million bpd, the biggest cut since Opec+ began trimming output in January 2017, according to second sources data quoted in Opec’s monthly report released last week.
The IEA is projecting US oil production will keep on rising in 2019 but at a slower pace than 2018, thanks to high shale oil output. US oil output, which had an “unexpected” growth of 2.1 million bpd in 2018, is set to expand by 1.3 million bpd in 2019, the energy watchdog said.
“While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world's number one crude producer,” the IEA said. “By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.”
Saudi Arabia, which has an oil output capacity of 12 million bpd, pumped 10.55 million bpd in December and shouldered the bulk of the Opec cuts during that month, with a 468,000 bpd trim to its production, according to the secondary sources quoted by Opec.
Meanwhile Russia boosted its output to a new record of about 11.5 million bpd in December, according to the IEA.
“While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner,” the IEA said.
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Need to know
The flights: Flydubai flies from Dubai to Kilimanjaro airport via Dar es Salaam from Dh1,619 return including taxes. The trip takes 8 hours.
The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.
When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend are January-February and September-October. Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.
Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.
Fight card
1. Featherweight 66kg: Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg: Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg:Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg: Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg: Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg: Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg: Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Ahmed Abdelraouf of Egypt (EGY)
9. Featherweight 66kg: Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg: Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
25%20Days%20to%20Aden
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
DUNE%3A%20PART%20TWO
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Denis%20Villeneuve%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Timothee%20Chamalet%2C%20Zendaya%2C%20Austin%20Butler%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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MO
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Company%20profile
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ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA