The Middle East, where the US military is currently deployed in three conflicts, barely got any mention in the two presidential debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but is likely to see a policy pivot if the Democrats win the White House on Tuesday.
Mr Biden, 77, if elected, would bring the longest foreign policy experience for any sitting US president in recent history. Having been a member and then chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for more than two decades, and later in charge of critical foreign policy portfolios as vice president to Barack Obama, Mr Biden is no stranger to international affairs.
In the Middle East, Mr Biden is known for his controversial proposal as senator to divide Iraq among its three major sects in 2006, and for having close relations with regional leaders. But if elected, experts say, the former vice president would bring changes to three critical foreign policy arenas in the Middle East: Iran, Turkey and Syria.
Return to Iran nuclear deal
Mr Biden has made it clear that he would return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that the Trump administration withdrew from in 2018. But such return is contingent on Iran’s compliance.
“If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations,” Mr Biden wrote in a column published by CNN last month.
Ariane Tabatabai, a Middle East fellow at the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund, described an Iran policy under Mr Biden as one that turns the page on Mr Trump’s but does not necessarily return to Mr Obama’s.
"The most significant difference [between Mr Trump and Mr Biden] in my view is one where a potential Biden administration would be in line with the Obama administration, and would seek to rebuild international consensus on Iran and work with US allies," Ms Tabatabai told The National.
But where Mr Biden might differ with the Obama years would be in addressing the regional issues that come with the Iran challenge. “A Biden administration would inherit a much different regional file and frankly, where it begins on that largely depends on what will happen between now and January 20” when the new presidential term begins, she said.
"By the time the JCPOA was reached, it was understood that the regional issues would have to wait for the next administration. Now, as the former vice president has put it, he would be looking to build on the deal by addressing the regional activities too," said Ms Tabatabai, author of No Conquest, No Defeat, a historical overview of the Islamic Republic's national security strategy.
In his column, Mr Biden said he had “no illusions about the challenges the regime in Iran poses to America's security interests, to our friends and partners and to its own people”. But it is not clear whether any US president can force regional issues to the negotiating table with Iran on its nuclear programme. The country is growing more defiant in its nuclear capabilities and has begun construction at its Natanz nuclear facility, according to satellite images.
Bigger rift with Turkey
Another challenge for a Biden presidency would be dealing with a more hostile and hawkish Turkey. In the past six months alone, President Recep Tayip Erdogan’s government has tested the Russian S-400 missile defence system, increased Turkish involvement in the Libyan and Syrian wars, challenged the EU in the East Mediterranean, and involved Ankara in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
But throughout, Turkey's president has had a warm personal relation with Mr Trump, who called him "a friend", "an ally", and "hell of a leader". According to the New York Times, Mr Erdogan recruited Trump officials to quash a lawsuit in New York against Turkey's Halkbank. The state-owned bank is now charged with embezzlement, conspiracy, money laundering, fraud and helping Iran evade sanctions.
This warm relationship is unlikely to carry on into a Biden presidency, said Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
"I anticipate some tough words for Turkey from a Biden administration," Mr Stein told The National. He said a Biden presidency would start enforcing sanctions on Ankara under CAATSA, the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, for its acquisition of the S-400 system. These are mandated by Congress but Mr Trump has delayed their application for 16 months.
Mr Stein did not foresee a return to the Obama years under Mr Biden. The former US president visited Istanbul during his first 100 days and maintained a good working relationship with Mr Erdogan on issues related to the Arab uprisings, Iraq, and the situation in Gaza.
But Mr Stein saw a tilt away from Turkey for Mr Biden. “He would continue to tilt towards Greece in crisis spots like the East Med, and show even more scepticism about US involvement in Syria.”
The former vice president has had a good rapport with the Kurdish leadership and minority over the years. Turkish officials were furious at Mr Biden for saying in January that he was “very concerned” about Mr Erdogan’s policy toward the Kurds in Turkey.
Calling Mr Erdogan an “autocrat”, the former vice president encouraged support to the Turkish opposition.
"What I think we should be doing is taking a very different approach to him [Erdogan] now, making it clear that we support opposition leadership … to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan. Not by a coup, not by a coup, but by the electoral process," Mr Biden told the New York Times.
Re-engagement in Syria
Another area where Mr Biden could challenge Turkey is Syria, said Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
"A Biden administration would remain engaged in Syria, sustain and potentially re-empower the counter-ISIS mission, protect our local Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) partners and challenge Turkey more determinedly," he told The National.
At the same time, there would be a shift from the Obama years where the Syrian conflict sprouted into a humanitarian and counterterrorism disaster. “Ultimately, I think many of the folks around the former vice president realise that under Mr Obama, the crisis in Syria was allowed to get out of hand and the effects of that have been profound – most if not all of them costly to US interests,” Mr Lister said. In a primary debate, Mr Biden did not commit to withdrawal US forces from Syria.
On the question of talking to the Assad regime, after Mr Trump sent his adviser Kash Patel to Syria over the summer to discuss the issue of hostages, Mr Lister expected a diplomatic push from Mr Biden but not engagement with Damascus. “The campaign has made it very clear that re-engagement with the regime is off the table, at least not without a UN-backed political process and a meaningful negotiated outcome,” he said.
Mr Biden's regional policy will also hinge on who he appoints to top cabinet posts. Key contenders for the secretary of state job such as former national security adviser Susan Rice, Senator Chris Murphy, Mr Biden’s aide Tony Blinken or former undersecretary of state Bill Burns, see regional priorities differently.
The former vice president is also expected, if elected, to continue Mr Trump’s Arab-Israeli normalisation push, take a tougher stance on human rights in the region, review arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and push harder stance to end the Yemen war.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Karwaan
Producer: Ronnie Screwvala
Director: Akarsh Khurana
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar
Rating: 4/5
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IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
Story%20behind%20the%20UAE%20flag
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Law%2041.9.4%20of%20men%E2%80%99s%20T20I%20playing%20conditions
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog
Hobby: "It is not really a hobby but I am very curious person. I love reading and spend hours on research."
Favourite author: Malcom Gladwell
Favourite travel destination: "Antigua in the Caribbean because I have emotional attachment to it. It is where I got married."
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
The%20specs
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
HAJJAN
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About RuPay
A homegrown card payment scheme launched by the National Payments Corporation of India and backed by the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank
RuPay process payments between banks and merchants for purchases made with credit or debit cards
It has grown rapidly in India and competes with global payment network firms like MasterCard and Visa.
In India, it can be used at ATMs, for online payments and variations of the card can be used to pay for bus, metro charges, road toll payments
The name blends two words rupee and payment
Some advantages of the network include lower processing fees and transaction costs
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
