Republican strategists will be dissecting the results of this year's midterms for a long time as they unpack why their party performed so dismally.
For Vice President JD Vance, the answer is obvious.
"The reason we lost is the war," he said yesterday, hours after his party suffered stunning losses across the US. "Everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there."
President Donald Trump later seemed to agree with his deputy, admitting that his comments were "largely true".
Mr Trump, of course, had campaigned on not starting any new wars and many of his supporters were furious when he pulled off such a rapid about-face by launching the Iran war in late February. Then came the costs of the conflict, in blood and treasure, as the war disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and sent prices soaring.
Throughout it all, Mr Trump appeared largely indifferent to the woes of many of his constituents. Marie Antoinette would surely have blushed at his tone-deafness as he boasted of a "Golden Age" from his newly gilded Oval Office, while millions of Americans struggled to fill their cars and shopping baskets.
On Monday, the day before the elections, Mr Trump delivered a "closing argument" to voters. He chose to do so from the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, where he rambled on about what a great job he'd done fixing it, and repeating false claims that vandals, not inept contractors, had made a mess of it in the first place.
It turns out that retrofitting the Oval Office with gold, boasting about his new ballroom and gaslighting America about the affordability crisis were not winning messages. Imagine that.
It’s hard to overstate the scope of the Republican losses: Kansas voted for a Democratic senator for the first time since 1932. Texas elected its first Democratic senator since 1988. Darline Graham was unable to hold on to her late brother Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat in South Carolina. Iowa, long considered a Republican stronghold, also voted for a Democratic senator. Even Mississippi might go blue, if the Democrat's narrow lead there holds.
Mr Vance is right that the Iran war and its economic impacts may have been the prominent issues for voters, but Republicans should not ignore how else they'd managed to alienate the electorate.
Black people voted in droves against the Trump administration's policies, including cuts to the African American-heavy federal workforce; Latinos and others were fed up with indiscriminate immigrant round-ups; and self-dealing and corruption were a major bipartisan turn-off.
It was a perfect storm for the Democrats and their hoped-for blue wave ended up becoming a tsunami. The party, which was nigh-on irrelevant for two years, came roaring back as a political force.
But they need to be careful about overplaying their hand, as many voters said they were casting their ballots against Mr Trump and not necessarily for the Democrats. Americans want their government to deliver relief, and distractions like impeachment hearings could cost the Democrats as they look to the presidential election of 2028.
Eye on the White House
Donald the lame duck Trump president

Ducks have a reason to celebrate in Washington, after residents in the US capital voted to ban the force feeding of birds and the sale of foie gras.
There is, however, one rather important duck – albeit a lame one – sitting in the White House with a lot less reason to cheer.
After two years of almost unbridled power, Mr Trump has had his wings severely clipped in the US midterm elections. The results have radically reshaped the political landscape, with Democrats securing full control of Congress and making gains beyond even their wildest expectations.
With control of Congress, Democrats will soon be able to summon Trump administration officials into the US Capitol to testify under oath and to launch investigations into how the war was planned and conducted.
They will grill officials such as Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth over everything from how much the war has really cost to what intelligence underpinned the decision to attack Iran.
It will be interesting to see how his final two years in office play out. Even as a hobbled president, he still retains the power of the veto and can get a lot done by executive order, including on matters of national security.
The lame duck may have lost a lot of his political bite, but it is far from clear if he is ready to fly south for the winter.
What's Washington talking about?
Night of firsts It was a night of firsts in the gubernatorial arena, with Texas electing its first Latina and Florida its first black man, while Georgia elected the first black female governor in US history. Michigan is sending the country's first Muslim American to the Senate. Kansas elected its first Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century. In a major upset for Republicans, Darline Graham, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham and who Mr Trump chose to serve out the remainder of his term, lost to Democrat Annie Andrews in South Carolina, a traditionally red state.
Texas flips blue The Democratic Party pulled off a historic victory in Texas, winning its first Senate seat since 1988, as well as the governorship in a state that has long been a Republican stronghold. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin-based state legislator and former school board president, defeated incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who was seeking a record fourth term. And James Talarico, also a state legislator and former teacher, defeated Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race, and will be the first Democrat to be elected to the chamber in Texas since 1988.
Adam Hamawy An Egyptian-American Democrat who volunteered as a surgeon in Gaza during Israel's war won a seat in Congress for New Jersey, defeating Republican Gregg Mele. Born in Egypt, Mr Hamawy moved to Old Bridge Township, New Jersey, with his family when he was a baby. Mr Hamawy will become the first Muslim to represent New Jersey in Congress, in a milestone for the state's community. He will be one of five Muslims in the House of Representatives, if the others keep their seats, and the first person of Egyptian descent.
Spotlight: Texas at centre of Republican push against 'Islamist influence' and Sharia

During a rally in Michigan last weekend, Mr Trump declared that Muslim-American senatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed was a “jihadist” looking to implement “Sharia law” in the country.
“I'm here to keep a jihadist Muslim Brotherhood member from becoming a United States senator,” Mr Trump told supporters in Port Huron. “Not going to let that happen.”
Despite the mudslinging, Mr El-Sayed won the Michigan Senate race, beating his Republican rival Mike Rogers.
There has been a growing push among some Republicans to pre-emptively ban Sharia, or Islamic law, and combat the influence of Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. This pre-dated the midterms but grew exponentially during the pivotal elections.
Nowhere has this push reached more of a fever pitch than Texas.
Only in America
Foie gras to be banned from Washington menus following midterm referendum

As noted above, the production and sale of foie gras will soon be banned in Washington, after voters in the US capital voted to prohibit the force-feeding of ducks and geese in the capital.
The referendum, known as Initiative 86, prohibits "any person from force-feeding a bird for the purpose of enlarging the bird's liver beyond normal size” and will “ban the sale or distribution of any product” resulting from the practice, “including foie gras”. Those found in violation would face civil penalties.
The dish is made from the enlarged livers of ducks and geese that are overfed through a force-feeding process known as gavage. Pro-Animal DC, the group that drove the effort to ban foie gras, argues this practice is inhumane, saying on its website the process “makes birds so diseased and sick that many can barely walk or stand, as they become too heavy for their legs to hold them”.
It had spent more than $470,000 in lobbying efforts, according to a filing with the District of Columbia's Office of Campaign Finance.
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