Could there be a Russian-sponsored peace agreement in the Middle East? It is not impossible.
Moscow has seemingly offered to broker a deal on behalf of Syria, its ally in the region, that could help the latter resolve some of the outstanding issues it has with neighbouring Israel. One such issue is Iran's military presence inside Syria, which has helped to safeguard the Assad regime in Damascus against disparate opposition forces, but which Israel sees as a threat to its own security.
Moscow is seeking to use the stalemate in war-torn Syria to consolidate its influence over the country after the Astana Process – which brings together Russia, Turkey and Iran with the express purpose of resolving the Syrian conflict – reached a dead end. The primary reason for the impasse is the souring of relations between Moscow and Ankara. And now the proposed deal could end up isolating Turkey and reducing Iran's military presence in Syria, in a way that would not only assuage an insecure Israel but also help to maintain Russia's hold in that part of the region. This deal, however, will require keeping Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in power.
Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia's Vladimir Putin and Iran's Hassan Rouhani have not been able to sustain the Astana Process. AFP
During his visit to Moscow this week, Syria's new Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad told Sergey Lavrov, his Russian counterpart, that Mr Al Assad wants to speed up the process of stabilising Syria following nine years of conflict. At the moment, it seems impossible for the regime and its backers to reach a deal with Turkey over the fate of Idlib, a region in Syria's north-west that is controlled by rebels mostly backed by Ankara – and Moscow and Damascus seem to be acknowledging this fact. This, then, leaves the Astana Process in tatters, thereby paving the way for new ideas – such as the one proposed in Moscow.
Mr Mekdad’s visit has made one thing clear: the Assad regime is determined to remain in power, no matter Syria’s dire circumstances. Mr Al Assad remains convinced that his regime is the cornerstone of Syria’s political future, regardless of local and international pressure, but he is reaching out to his enemies. He is willing to meet with the country’s opposition groups in Geneva, where talks have been ongoing, but is not interested in a power-sharing agreement with them. He is likely to accept some structural changes that could mean having a more independent parliament, but only so long as he remains in power.
Mr Al Assad also hopes that, by signalling his desire to make concessions with opposition groups and Israel, Moscow would be able to urge the Arab world to soften its stance towards his regime.
It may be open to Moscow’s proposal of drawing down Iran’s military presence in Syria. Mr Mekdad has, nonetheless, ascertained to his hosts that Syria-Iran co-operation would continue “because Iran has become a real and steady partner” – although not at the expense of Syria-Russia relations. In other words, the Assad regime intends to maintain good relations with Iran but consult Russia on all the key issues, including Tehran's presence in its backyard.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, left, hosted his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad earlier in the week. EPA
That may not come as a huge surprise. However, it is instructive not only that Russia wants Syria to talk to Israel, a mortal enemy of Damascus, but also that it believes the Iranian regime should, in one way or the other, be part of that deal. Moscow fully understands the extent of Tehran’s influence in Syria and the organic relationship between the two regimes.
At the same time, Moscow has significant leverage over Tehran – whether it is regarding the arms deal negotiations or the fate of the contentious 2015 nuclear agreement – and is willing to use that leverage.
Meanwhile, the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – or JCPOA – which the US and other global powers, including Russia, signed with Iran five years ago, hangs in the balance. US President Donald Trump pulled the US out of it in 2018 but his soon-to-be successor, Joe Biden, seems determined to return to it. This could have a bearing on Iran's continued role in Syria.
However, experts I recently spoke to remain divided over how the US should deal with Iran after Mr Biden is sworn in on January 20.
For instance, Ellie Geranmayeh, from the European Council on Foreign Relations, would like to see the incoming administration focus on resolving the nuclear deal before pivoting to other issues, such as Iran’s expansionist agenda in the region as well as its ballistic missile programme. On the other hand, Lina Khatib, from Chatham House, has argued for a push to resolve the issues around the missile programme and Tehran's military adventurism in the region as a pre-condition for talks on the JCPOA.
However, Karen Young, from the American Enterprise Institute, has predicted that the first six months of a Biden administration “are not necessarily aligned for good diplomacy”, given that Iran will be holding its presidential election in June, the outcome of which could well decide its foreign policy priorities.
Were progress not to be made on the JCPOA front, Russia’s sponsorship of a deal involving Syria, Israel and Iran would amount to a significant development.
Furthermore, it will be entirely in line with the messages coming out of Moscow that speak to a desire on Russia’s part to follow a path of “moderation” and a determination to play a constructive role in the world, including in the Middle East.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
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Company Profile
Name: Thndr Started: 2019 Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr Sector: FinTech Headquarters: Egypt UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi Current number of staff: More than 150 Funds raised: $22 million
How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
La Mer beach is open from 10am until midnight, daily, and is located in Jumeirah 1, well after Kite Beach. Some restaurants, like Cupagahwa, are open from 8am for breakfast; most others start at noon. At the time of writing, we noticed that signs for Vicolo, an Italian eatery, and Kaftan, a Turkish restaurant, indicated that these two restaurants will be open soon, most likely this month. Parking is available, as well as a Dh100 all-day valet option or a Dh50 valet service if you’re just stopping by for a few hours.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
