French oil major Total is committed to the development of an Iranian gasfield and will apply for a waiver if US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdraws from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and re-imposes sanctions on Tehran, the company’s chief executive said.
“If the US decides to put back the sanctions, we have to look at what the consequences are…and then we will see, either Donald Trump decides to maintain the waivers and we will move on with the project,” Patrick Pouyanne said in an interview in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. “If the US decides not to sign the waiver, then what will be our position, it’s quite simple - as the project has been awarded prior to that decision during the period of time that we could sign … we will argue that we should benefit from the grandfather clause and we will ask for a waiver from the US authorities.”
In July last year, Total became the first Western energy company to sign a deal with Iran when it agreed as part of a 20-year contract to develop phase 11 of the country’s South Pars field, the world’s largest gasfield that is shared with Qatar. The project will have a production capacity of 2 billion cubic feet per day or 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day including condensate. The produced gas will supply the Iranian domestic market starting in 2021.
In January, Mr Trump set May 12 as the deadline to decide whether the US will re-impose sanctions that were lifted as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal that curbed Iran’s nuclear programme. He said European countries that are party to the agreement must address “terrible flaws of the Iran nuclear deal.”
The ultimatum has pressed Britain, France and Germany to seek ways that will mollify the American president and preserve the deal. The three European countries are considering a new set of sanctions that target Iran’s ballistic missiles and Tehran’s role in Syria’s seven-year civil war, Reuters reported on Saturday.
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Read more:
France's Total buys Maersk Oil in $7.5 billion deal
Iran's gas wealth tempts Total into political risk
What's at risk for energy If Trump pushes Iran deal to collapse
Trump to ‘decertify’ Iran nuclear deal
__________
Iran has propped up the regime of Bashar Al Assad and is accused of meddling in the internal affairs of regional Arab countries and backing Houthi rebels in Yemen.
In the wider context “Total is a small matter of a contract…it's more the diplomatic tension,” said Mr Pouyanne. “What is more important is the debate, a consequence of the negative US decision on the stability of the region.”
Prior to the nuclear agreement, Iran’s economy was crippled by years of sanctions that led to hyperinflation and drying up of foreign investment. The country, which relies on oil revenue saw its crude production fall to about 2.5 million bpd with exports limited to a million barrels a day. The nuclear agreement allowed Iran to nearly double its oil and condensate production to 3.8 million bpd allowing it to boost its foreign exchange reserves. The government's budget continues to rely on oil receipts for about 40 per cent of its total revenue, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“Our intent is to do all that we can to execute the contract that we signed…. We have good arguments to explain…This contract, it’s a contract for domestic gas to help the people in Iran. It’s not an export contract,” said Mr Pouyanne.
“I can also tell you that we were very clear and the teams worked very hard…not to see any interests of revolutionary organisations involved," he said.
After the sanctions were lifted, Tehran approved shortlisted contractors that were not affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard in a bid to attract oil and gas companies who wanted to avoid falling afoul with the US government.
"We have done the best on our side in order to comply with the highest level of requirement … we will see what the US and European governments decide," said Mr Pouyanne.
"Today the priority is to concentrate on South Pars and…be able to execute that contract… It’s a very serious situation for the stability of the region.”
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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