Fifty years ago, at the end of the sun-baked summer of 1976, Denis Howell was appointed the UK’s minister for drought. It promptly rained for two months straight, making him one of the most effective ministers in history. After a record European heatwave last month, politicians and populace need pragmatism more than luck to survive.
This year, the UK has just broken its highest May temperature. Europe has been 10°C to 15°C hotter than usual for the time of year. The rapidly developing El Nino, the periodic warming of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific, looks set to reach record strength. That could generate record heat next year.
El Nino in turn typically brings hot, dry weather to India, Indonesia, south and central Africa, and Australia. These important agricultural areas are already facing shortages of fertiliser and diesel for farm machinery because of the continuing blockage of the Gulf.
Sensible action against global warming has become a critical victim of the American culture wars, now infecting Europe. A civilisation that can't convince people to take life-saving vaccines will not cope with the slow-moving cataclysm of climate change.
The causes of the conflict in the Gulf have nothing directly to do with global warming but its consequences provide useful rhetorical ammunition across the political divide.
Right-wing parties have latched on to “net-zero” carbon plans as a convenient bogeyman for high energy prices. European countries have indeed made a series of self-destructive choices, particularly closing off nuclear power, and blocking investment in new oil and gas production.
Green politicians have oversold the ease and generality of switching to renewables. They have preferred the cheap target of bashing the unpopular oil companies. If they come to office, they will have to be more practical and work much harder to explain tough trade-offs to voters.
But the continent’s energy struggles would be much worse without the heavy investment in energy efficiency and renewable power since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the attendant gas crisis. The cosiness with Russia of anti-environmental parties such as Fidesz in Hungary, the AfD in Germany and Reform in the UK makes them yearn for a return to energy dependence on the Kremlin.
On both sides of the Atlantic, right-wing political orthodoxy on solar and wind power and electric cars is a decade out of date – these are now not just low-carbon but also reliable and cost-effective. Even the recent manifesto from the UK’s centrist former prime minister, Tony Blair, falls into this trap. Meanwhile, US officials who have opposed renewable subsidies are now paying companies billions of dollars not to build wind farms, while propping up uneconomic coal power stations.
Gulf's push
The Gulf countries can view these sterile debates with a mix of frustration and satisfaction. Officials such as Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Adnoc chief executive Dr Sultan Al Jaber have for years pleaded for more energy pragmatism. They have pointed to insufficient investment in both traditional and new energy. The severity and length of the current crisis is perhaps unexpected. But even before this year, it was apparent that energy security worldwide was becoming dangerously fragile, even as the world failed to meet its decarbonisation goals.
The UAE and its neighbours do not have the luxury of believing influencers and demagogues who peddle easy stories about climate science and economics between the adverts for wellness pills. They do not doubt the reality, causes and severity of global warming. They have net-zero carbon plans of their own.
Still, the Gulf states must be clear that the winds have changed for them, too. Before the Strait of Hormuz crisis, there was a good case that fossil fuels were required for energy security. Affordable, reliable energy depended for most nations on a sensible mix of oil and gas, renewables and other sources.
That argument is much harder to make now. Some countries, mostly in Africa and Asia, have already suffered badly from this energy crisis, with shuttered offices and factories, blackouts and riots over sharp rises in fuel bills. But the economic pain in Europe and the US, China and Japan, has so far been muted.
That will change as oil storage continues to drain, especially if something like normal Gulf transit is not restored within a couple of months. A starving, sweltering summer with power cuts will burn itself into folk memory as 1976 did. Consumer preferences and government policies will promote electric vehicles and other non-hydrocarbon technology even more strongly. China’s strategy already looks prescient.
The most resilient Gulf countries will adapt. They will address the perceived insecurity of energy from the Gulf with new pipelines, ports, road and rail routes. These are imperfect but important ways to loosen any future stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
They will double down on their existing policies of energy and economic diversification. The UAE’s successful civil nuclear power programme, the 24-hour solar and battery plants of Abu Dhabi’s Masdar and Oman’s O-Green, the Neom green hydrogen plant in Saudi Arabia, are multibillion-dollar commitments to the new energy world. Investment in AI, space, defence and other emerging technology support the traditional energy industry even as they move beyond it.
Gulf societies have grown up between the desert and the sea. Both are welcoming, life-giving environments to those humans and animals who adapt to and know them. They are harsh, deadly places to those who do not take them seriously. Denial of reality – scientific, economic or political – is fatal.
