Britain and Europe must forge a “strong alliance” with the Middle East in the rapidly changing world order, former UK prime minister Tony Blair has said, while also castigating the political party he led to three general election victories.
Mr Blair outlined his criticism of the current Labour government and leaned on his experience in foreign relations to suggest Britain needs to turn away from a dangerous path to isolationism.
In his biggest political intervention since Labour came to power two years ago, Mr Blair put forward what he called a “new policy agenda” for Britain.
It coincides with a highly turbulent time for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is facing calls from his own MPs to resign, while there is also a growing possibility of the party moving further to the left.
Middle East alliance
But it is the evolving nature of the new world order that Mr Blair highlights in the 5,600-word essay in which he calls on Europe, including Britain, to “fashion a strong alliance with the Middle East” as a new power bloc.
He said the Iran war "will not alter" the Gulf States' status as a significant player in global politics. Britain recently signed a free-trade agreement with the Gulf Co-operation Council.
“The Gulf states are another new factor in global politics, wealthy, modernising fast and with huge investment in the West, which they are increasing, as well as becoming important players in the developing world,” he said.
He argued that the new world order was not the result of an American breach with its western allies but a “product of a risen China, a rising India, a newly militaristic Russia” as well as “emerging significant power blocks in the Gulf”.
Island of irrelevance
How the world order might ultimately look is still unclear because the “shifting pattern of power isn't an order yet” and Britain faced becoming isolated, he wrote.
Caught between the thinking of both the far-right and left wings, this could put it “in danger of leaving Britain marooned on an island of irrelevance”.
“An accumulative risk for Britain is that we become frighteningly insular, wary of America because of [US President Donald] Trump, out of Europe because we think it's inconsistent with national sovereignty and considering China as an enemy state,” he wrote.
But it is difficult for politicians to think clearly as they were “living in a 24/7 pressure cooker”, Mr Blair said, with little time to recognise the turning of the word’s political axis “let alone study it”.
“These changes need long-term strategic thinking, which is alien to the way most modern democracies function,” he added.
Refuelling refusal
The former Labour leader, who was appointed by Mr Trump to the Gaza Board of Peace, also launched a pointed attack against Mr Starmer’s initial refusal to allow American jets to use British bases at the start of the Iran war, a decision that led to a breach in relations with the White House.
Mr Blair, who allowed British troops to take part in the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, argued that the initial Washington request was “simply for the use of our military bases for the refuelling of American planes”.
While he understood the political reasons behind the refusal “it's not the best way to treat our ally,” and accused the government of forgetting “an essential lesson, not just of diplomacy, but of power politics - if you want to play, you have to be sat at the table and bring something to the table”.
Playing with fire
The upheaval in Labour, with the strong chance of a leadership challenge on Mr Starmer in the coming weeks, suggested that the party Mr Blair led for 13 years was “playing with fire, or, more accurately with its future, and that of the country”.
Mr Blair, who was prime minister from 1997 to 2007, argued that to reverse its decline and win a second term, the government needed a “fundamental reset” with a “radical centre” adopting an agenda where “policy comes first and politics comes last”.
A change of leadership was “irrelevant if it doesn't start with a policy debate”, he added. “Trying to force the prime minister out before we know what policy direction we're bringing in, is not a serious way of conducting ourselves.”
The leadership struggle has reopened the debate on Britain rejoining the EU, something over which Mr Blair urged caution. “Just as Brexit was never the answer to Britain’s challenges back in 2016, reversing it isn't the answer to the country’s far worse situation in 2026,” he said.
The country could only rejoin from the position of economic strength rather than in desperation, he added.
Ultimately government needed to be reorganised to harness the power of AI in which taxes and spending were lower, productivity higher and a consensus “behind a radical restructuring of the state”.
“Without an agenda of this nature, radical but sensible, Britain will continue its long slide towards relegation from the premier league of nations,” he concluded.
