Risks to shipping remain high in the Strait of Hormuz as the US begins a blockade of all vessels leaving and entering Iranian ports.
Only two vessels left the strait on Monday, both carrying petroleum products, data from shipping analytics firm Kpler shows. That was a drop from the 14 vessels that left the waterway on Sunday.
Before the Iran war began on February 28, about 140 ships passed through the waterway each day. "For now, the risk is that this creates a more restrictive and legally uncertain transit regime, which is likely to keep shipowners and charterers cautious,” Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at Kpler, told The National.
The US began its blockade after a deadline announced by President Donald Trump that passed at 6pm UAE time. "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," US Central Command said in a post on X.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, meanwhile, said any wrong move by American forces in the strait would turn it into a "whirlpool of destruction". The escalation comes after the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement after talks held in Islamabad, jeopardising a fragile ceasefire.
Each side blamed the other for the failure of the 21-hour negotiations to end war, which has killed thousands and sent global oil prices soaring. Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel on Monday, having settled below $100 when markets closed on Friday.
After the failed talks at the weekend, Washington "has since signalled that it may interdict vessels deemed to be paying Iranian transit tolls, while still allowing passage between non-Iranian ports”, Ms Subasic said. " We have not yet seen the practical effects of those measures, but we are monitoring the situation closely."
Iran has effectively blocked the strait in response to its war with the US and Israel. Tehran's proposals for ending the conflict include a provision allowing it to charge ships to pass through the waterway to compensate for damage caused by the war.
"Nothing changes with a single social media outburst," said Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at maritime consultancy Drewry, referring to Mr Trump's post. "Major container shipping lines will continue to wait for something substantive, which will mean it really is safe to sail into the Gulf."
Major shipping companies, including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk, have yet to start operations in the Arabian Gulf and are monitoring the situation.
It is difficult to assess what effect Mr Trump's plans to block the strait will have on shipping, Reuters reported, quoting a Hapag-Lloyd statement on Monday. "What's important is that passage through the Strait of Hormuz be restored as soon as possible," the company said.
As long as there are mines in the strait, passage is not possible, while insurance is also difficult to obtain, it added.
