Opec+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, kept oil output unchanged as global oversupply risks collide with the removal of Venezuela’s president and plans for US companies to run the country’s oil assets.
The move reflects caution as new Venezuelan barrels could hit markets amid weak demand and rising supply.
After returning 2.9 million barrels a day to the market since April last year, the group paused production increases for the first quarter of this year and reaffirmed that stance at an online meeting on Sunday.
The group of oil producers is currently unwinding 1.65 million barrels a day of voluntary cuts announced in April 2023, having previously reversed reductions of 2.2 million barrels a day that were agreed to in November 2023 and put into effect from April last year.
“The eight participating countries reiterated that the 1.65 million bpd may be returned in part or in full, subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the alliance said in a statement.
The producers, including Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, also reaffirmed the need for a cautious approach and full flexibility to pause or reverse additional voluntary supply increases, including those linked to the 2.2 million bpd cuts announced in November 2023.
The group will hold its next meeting on February 1, 2026.
The meeting followed a dramatic escalation involving Opec member Venezuela, after the US launched an operation to detain the country’s President Nicolas Maduro and transfer him to the US to face narco-terrorism charges.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would use an oil “quarantine” to pressure Venezuela’s new leaders following Saturday's capture and arrest of President Nicolas Maduro.
Mr Rubio also told CBS News that Caracas must sever ties to Iran and Hezbollah, stop drug trafficking and ensure that Venezuela’s oil industry doesn’t benefit adversaries of the US.
“I do know this: That if they don’t make the right decision, then the United States will retain multiple levels of leverage to ensure that our interests are protected and that includes the oil quarantine that’s in place, among others,” Mr Rubio told CBS on Sunday.
US President Donald Trump said major US oil companies would invest billions of dollars in Venezuela to rebuild its oil infrastructure and generate revenue for the country.
Chaotic handover concerns
Venezuela is one of Opec’s founding members, alongside Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait. Home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the country produces about 1.1 million bpd of crude, with most exports flowing to China and India, according to Rystad Energy. While that accounts for just around 1 per cent of global oil trade, the output is distinctive, with more than 67 per cent classified as heavy crude.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and Mena research at RBC Capital Markets, said Venezuela could unlock several hundred thousand barrels a day of additional output within a year if sanctions are eased and there is an orderly transition of power.
She cautioned that a chaotic handover, similar to those seen in Libya or Iraq, could derail any production gains, and said Iran may now reassess its strategy to avoid a comparable US-led intervention following President Donald Trump’s warnings of possible military action this week.
She also said Mr Trump's plans puts a heavy burden on US oil companies, with billions in dollars of investment required to increase Venezuela's oil production.
“Oil executives currently operating in the country contend it will cost at least $10 billion annually to turn the sector around and that a stable security environment is an absolute prerequisite to expanding production capacity towards historical levels,” Ms Croft said.
Oil markets were volatile last year as geopolitical tensions collided with rising supply from Opec+ producers. Prices extended that weakness into the first trading day of 2026, slipping after their worst annual performance in six years, as investors weighed the war in Ukraine and US-Venezuela tensions against deepening oversupply concerns.
Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, settled at $60.75 a barrel on the first trading day of 2026, down 0.16 per cent. West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, fell 0.17 per cent to $57.32 a barrel.
Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure this year after both benchmarks fell nearly 20 per cent in 2025 on oversupply concerns. The International Energy Agency forecasts that supply will outstrip demand by 3.85 million bpd in 2026, equivalent to almost 4 per cent of global consumption.
