Around the world, fresh water is not only running low – we are depleting it.
Conventional wisdom has long held that freshwater availability – that which is stored in our soils, aquifers, lakes, rivers, snow, and glaciers, and on which we depend – is fixed. Withdrawals from these reserves are eventually replenished through the hydrological cycle. New evidence has revealed that this is not the case.
We are losing fresh water faster than it is being replaced. Some of that loss is the result of changes in the climate. But some of it is due to how we farm, how fast cities are growing, and how much water we pump from the ground to quench our growing thirst.
A new World Bank report, Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future, highlights how quickly the world’s reserves of fresh water are declining and how human activity is driving the depletion. For the first time, a global, satellite-backed picture of terrestrial water storage decline makes visible when, where, and how fresh water is being lost and what this implies for economic futures.
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An abandoned house in Al-Bouzayad village, Diwaniya province, Iraq. All photos: AFP -
The provinces of Dhi Qar, Maysan and Diwaniya are among the worst affected by the drought, according to the International Organisation for Migration, which estimates 76 per cent of displaced people relocate to cities -
Haydar Mohamed once grew wheat and barley, but drought has forced him off the land and into the city where he now earns $15 a day in construction, supplementing this by driving a taxi -
'The transition is difficult,' said Mohamed, 42, who abandoned village life several years ago for a shantytown in the city of Karbala, 'but if you don't work you don't eat' -
Until 2017, Mohamed farmed in the remote village of Al-Khenejar in Diwaniya province where, in a good year, they would harvest 40 or 50 tonnes of grain -
The United Nations ranks Iraq as one of the world's five countries most affected by climate change -
The UN says nearly one in five people live in an area hit by water shortages, while state authorities have limited areas designated for cultivation -
In Diwaniya province, 120 villages rely on water deliveries, up from 75 last summer, said provincial governor Maitham al-Chahd -
The rural flight piles pressure on urban areas where infrastructure is dilapidated after decades of conflict, corruption and mismanagement and reports warn of 'social unrest' driven by climate factors -
Al-Chahd said rural migrants faced unemployment in the cities, where there 'are not enough job opportunities' for all the newcomers -
Rural areas, meanwhile, are being deserted, including the village of Al-Bouzayad, where the main irrigation canal has dried up -
About 100 families have left in the past two years, and today only 170 households are still listed on the municipal register, said mayor Majed Raham -
Those who stayed depend on water deliveries made by tankers sent by the governorate authorities -
Raham said most survive on either state benefits or money earned by their children, who commute daily to the nearest town -
'The majority want to leave,' he said, 'but they don't have the means'
For countries in the Middle East and North Africa, the implications are far-reaching. The region includes some of the world’s fastest-drying countries. While fresh water has always been limited, the new data shows the region is losing it much faster than previously thought. Up to 96 per cent of the land area is losing about 60 cubic kilometres each year – a cumulative loss since 2002 that is equivalent to 70 years of domestic water use for the region’s population.
The region has a long history of finding ways to thrive despite a scarcity of water. For decades, countries have expanded desalination, upgraded irrigation, and prioritised efficient water use. But the scale of today’s losses signals a different challenge: a long-term drop in underlying reserves of fresh water.
What was once a chronic shortage has evolved into an existential challenge, demanding bold policy innovation and regional co-operation to sustain people and economies in the decades ahead. In practice, this means improving systems that track fresh water balances, creating clear incentives for efficient water use and building out a portfolio of non-conventional supply.
Agriculture sits at the heart of this transition. Farming consumes more than 80 per cent of the region’s available fresh water. Raising irrigation efficiency to the global median would cut irrigated water use by more than 20 per cent and ease pressure on stressed basins. Aligning crop choices with water availability would further boost water savings. Trade can also help: the region already saves an estimated 85 billion cubic metres a year by importing water-intensive crops from more water-efficient producers.
But reducing water demand alone will not be enough to close the gap. Supply must also expand. Using treated wastewater for agriculture, industry and limited urban uses eases pressure on aquifers and can delay the need for costlier alternatives. Recharging groundwater and capturing rainwater can also help, where conditions allow. Desalination, increasingly paired with renewable energy, will continue to be an important part of the water security equation for coastal economies.
The effectiveness of such reforms, however, will depend in large part on the strength of institutions. Clear rules, reliable data systems and transparent tariffs that shield low-income households are essential. A trusted, consistently functioning regulator enables efficiency improvements and new supply investments to deliver results. If policies are not implemented well, however, even the most technically sound reforms struggle to take hold.
The effects of continental drying reach far beyond the water sector. Water shortages weaken harvests and squeeze farm incomes. They strain public budgets. And can heighten the risk of instability or displacement. Without a decisive shift in policy, the cost of drying will continue to rise, making long-term growth and resilience harder to secure.
The 2026 UN Water Conference, to be co-hosted by the UAE and Senegal in December next year, offers an opportunity to translate evidence into policy and financing commitments on pricing systems, allocation methods and regional co-operation. Hosting this global meeting, alongside efforts such as the One Water Summit, signals that water security is now a priority across the region.
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Internally displaced children Ali and Osman Abdulahi stand near carcasses of their family's livestock, killed by severe drought near Dollow, Somalia. Reuters -
Quick distribution of climate funds agreed at Cop28 will help devastated populations get back on their feet, Somalia’s Deputy Prime Minister Salah Jama has said. Reuters -
Commuters ride on rickshaws on a flooded road after heavy rains in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Reuters -
Cyclone Mocha makes landfall near Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. A rise in extreme weather events around the world has been blamed on global warming caused by man-made greenhouse gases. EPA -
Commuters stand on a flyover, on a flooded motorway near Rampur, in India's Uttar Pradesh state, in 2021. AFP -
Monsoon floods and landslides killed about 100 people in Nepal and India earlier this year. AFP -
A man walks past a car swept by floodwaters in Abuja, Nigeria, in 2021. AFP -
Flooding in Kogi, Nigeria, in October 2022. AP -
A landslide engulfs Nyamukubi village, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. AFP -
A landslide in the Mont Ngafula district of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo. AFP -
Aid workers crossing flooded areas in Bundibugyo, Uganda. Twitter/UgandaRedCross -
Villagers try to pull up a minibus in which 14 bodies were retrieved, in the river Nabuyonga in eastern Uganda, after flash floods. AFP
Water scarcity will persist in Mena. But because this loss is influenced by human systems, it is not inevitable. This is the moment for governments and business leaders to demonstrate that drying is shaped as much by policy and investment as by physical limits.
Drying is a warning, not a predetermined future. The region now has the evidence and the opportunity to act decisively. The world will be looking to Mena in 2026.
Ousmane Dione is World Bank's vice president for the Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region, and Saroj Kumar Jha is global director for the World Bank Group’s Water Department
