Is the world on track to meet its renewable energy goals?

Almost 200 countries pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 at the Cop28 climate conference

Wind turbines at an offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea off the coast of Germany. EPA

The global fight against climate change stands at a critical juncture. Despite bold pledges, such as the commitment made at the Cop28 climate conference to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, the world remains off-track in its efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

The effects of global warming have become more evident than ever, with record-high temperatures sweeping across Europe, Asia, and North America this summer, endangering lives, livelihoods, and industries. But where are we truly at in this fight, and what does the data tell us about our progress and the challenges ahead?

A mixed picture

Renewable energy has gained momentum, fuelled by decreasing costs and the urgent need for cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels. However, fossil fuels still made up 81.5 per cent of primary energy – or directly used sources – of consumption in 2023. This is a stark reminder of the world’s continued dependence on coal, oil and gas, according to the Statistical Review published by UK's Energy Institute.

Despite significant investments and political commitments, renewables' share of total primary energy consumption increased only marginally, reaching 14.6 per cent last year. This slow progress was underscored by a June report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which warned that the world is on course to only roughly double – rather than triple – global renewable energy capacity by 2030 under current policies and trends.

“It’s not enough yet to reach the Cop28 goal of tripling renewables, but we’re moving closer – and governments have the tools needed to close the gap,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director said in an earlier report.

Several of the world's largest economies have introduced regulations and programmes to promote the use of clean energy. The EU’s REPowerEU plan, introduced two years ago, aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the bloc’s gross final consumption to 45 per cent by 2030, up from a previous target of 40 per cent. It also includes boosting renewable hydrogen production to 10 million tonnes per year by the end of the decade.

The US has enacted the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers a series of tax incentives on wind, solar, hydropower and other renewables, as well as a push towards electric vehicle ownership. In Asia, China aims to increase renewable energy generation by 50 per cent by 2025, while India plans to have half of its power-generating capacity come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

Solar blowing off steam

These plans come as the global solar sector grapples with oversupply issues that have driven down solar panel prices. “Currently, there is a glut in manufacturing capacity in solar … and if the incentives in Europe and the US are successful that’s just going to exacerbate the situation,” said Jeremy Crane, the group chief executive of Yellow Door Energy.

“So, for ourselves as developers [and] investors in renewables, when the cost of equipment comes down due to the glut in the global market, that enables us to provide power at lower costs to our customers,” Mr Crane told The National.

The Dubai-based Yellow Door Energy has more than 240 megawatts of solar projects in the Middle East and Africa. Mr Crane said that it is "very hard" to predict how long the current low costs of solar equipment will continue. “We're anticipating there could be some consolidation in the panel manufacturing space … that’s a normal outcome.”

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been instrumental in bringing down costs worldwide for solar photovoltaics (PV). At the same time, Beijing’s solar dominance has set off alarm bells in the West, where concerns are growing about protecting domestic manufacturing.

In May, the US announced a major increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, raising duties on electric vehicles to 100 per cent, doubling tariffs on semiconductors and solar cells to 50 per cent. Washington also introduced new 25 per cent tariffs on lithium-ion batteries and other strategic commodities such as steel. Similar tariffs were subsequently imposed by the EU and Canada.

Despite the geopolitical challenges, solar energy is the only renewable source that’s currently on track to meet 2050 net zero targets, the IEA said in a report last year.

Headwinds curbing wind power growth

Wind power, viewed as a key pillar in reducing global carbon emissions, has in recent years been plagued by high inflation and supply chain issues. These obstacles include delayed permits, postponed auctions and slow supply chain development.

Siemens Energy, the world’s top manufacturer of offshore wind turbines, anticipates a 2024 loss of about €2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) at its Siemens Gamesa subsidiary, excluding one-time charges. Siemens Gamesa has experienced problems with components in its onshore wind turbines, resulting in substantial financial losses and delays in project execution.

“The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, fuelled by increased investment and auction activity,” said Petra Manuel, senior analyst, offshore wind at Rystad Energy. “While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance."

The sector staved off challenges in 2023, recording a 7 per cent increase in new capacity additions compared to the previous year, the Norway-based consultancy said. This momentum is expected to accelerate this year, with new capacity additions expected to grow by 9 per cent to over 11 gigawatts.

Europe is set to play a key role in the growth of floating wind energy, heavily relying on it to meet ambitious national targets and tap into offshore resources.

Fuelling discourse

The shift to clean energy is complex, with various viewpoints and challenges. Multiple studies and projections related to renewable energy and carbon emissions are based on assumptions about peak fossil fuel demand.

The IEA, which represents Western industrialised countries and also Turkey and Japan, forecasts that global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030, based on the continuing transition to cleaner energy sources such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, as well as the increasing efficiency of energy use. While the oil producers group Opec acknowledges the growing importance of renewable energy, it has often expressed scepticism about the notion of peak oil.

“We believe oil will continue to be a vital component of future energy pathways and this is exemplified by the fact petroleum products are essential for the functioning of other sectors, such as electricity,” Haitham Al Ghais, Opec’s secretary general said in a July statement. “Hopefully, the notion that energy sources must be pitted against each other can be dispelled and, instead, policymakers can be clear-headed about energy realities and energy interconnectedness.”

In November, Azerbaijan will host the Cop29 climate conference, where discussions will build on the focus on renewables and nuclear power from last year’s climate summit in Dubai.

The oil and gas industry, which is responsible for around a fifth of global emissions, has been taking steps to reduce its emissions amid growing climate concerns and investor pressure. Initiatives such as methane reduction, carbon capture and energy efficiency improvements are being prioritised by global oil majors as well as some large state-run energy companies.

Many companies are increasing their focus on natural gas as a temporary solution in the shift towards cleaner energy sources. It is often seen as a less polluting alternative to coal and crude oil, making it a bridge between fossil fuels and renewable energy.

At an event in May, Qatar’s energy minister said climate pledges and promises were made by politicians “who don't understand the details of how you can achieve these transitions”. It became “in vogue” for policymakers to endorse environmentally friendly initiatives, such as aiming for net-zero emissions and supporting green policies, Saad Al Kaabi said. But when the “reality kicks in, you are asking – do you actually back off some of the targets?”, he added.

The IEA has projected a surge in liquefied natural gas projects from 2025, adding over 250 billion cubic metres of new capacity annually by 2030. But many experts have warned that increasing reliance on natural gas may hinder the long-term transition to cleaner forms of energy.

US election impact

The result of the US election, set to take place in November, could determine the direction of climate policies in the world’s largest economy and a major greenhouse gas emitting country. Republican candidate Donald Trump has vowed to take the US out of the Paris climate deal for a second time if elected. There are also concerns Mr Trump could cancel the IRA altogether.

While it is "not likely that the IRA will be fully repealed", a second Trump presidency "would likely issue executive orders that would abandon the 2035 net zero target for the power sector, establish softer emissions goals … and issue tax credit regulations that could favour blue hydrogen", David Brown, director of Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition research, said in a research note in May.

Meanwhile, the current US Vice President Kamala Harris is widely expected to continue Joe Biden’s policies if she is elected. In a recent CNN interview, Ms Harris said that she would not ban fracking if elected president, a shift from her stance during her first presidential campaign.