Freeport, the second-biggest US LNG export plant, could restart operations in March this year after it was shut down due to a fire in June 2022, according to Rystad Energy.
The return of the plant, which can process up to 2.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day and export 15 million tonnes of LNG per annum, is expected to push up gas prices.
“Our current forecast anticipates the facility will begin to liquefy in March 2023,” said the Norway-based energy consultancy in a report.
Freeport’s closure came as European countries, faced with dwindling Russian exports, started increasing their imports of LNG from the US and Gulf countries, while simultaneously filling up their natural gas storage with existing supplies.
“At the time, we believed a prolonged outage would tighten global balances, especially considering EU gas demand, primarily driven by the industrial sector and winter consumption,” said Rystad analyst Ade Allen.
However, a sharp fall in industrial gas demand in Europe, along with an unusually mild winter and Covid-19 restrictions in Asia, helped to “balance” gas markets in 2022, said Mr Allen.
Rystad Energy expects EU industrial gas demand to expand “modestly” by 1.5 per cent this year.
The rise in gas storage levels has triggered a sharp fall in prices over the last few months.
Dutch Title Transfer Facility gas futures, the benchmark European contract, was last trading at €55.20 ($59.33) per megawatt hour on Wednesday.
Futures hit a record high of about €343 a megawatt hour in August last year.
Although prices have declined considerably on higher stocks, the region can still absorb incremental LNG volumes in 2023, said Rystad.
US LNG exports to Europe averaged 6.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day over the last 12 months.
“We expect this will continue; [although] gas prices have declined from the summer 2022 peak, the forward curve is still relatively elevated,” said Mr Allen.
“When Freeport LNG eventually restarts, most of its cargo will be sent to Europe as economics and transit times are competitive.”
Analysts and energy executives expect gas markets to be tight in 2023 as Russian exports fall and China’s economy recovers.
“The EU may find it more difficult this year to find substitutes for Russian gas supplies as the LNG market will likely tighten,” said Moody’s in a report last week.
“Although short-term gas prices have fallen sharply and are now back to where they stood before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we expect energy prices to remain volatile and above historical levels.”
The EU could fall short by about 27 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas this year if Russian gas deliveries drop to zero and China’s LNG imports rebound to 2021 levels, the International Energy Agency said in a December report.
The agency said the risk of shortages could be avoided through “stronger” efforts to improve energy efficiency, as well as use more renewable energy and further diversify natural gas sources.
MATCH INFO
Alaves 1 (Perez 65' pen)
Real Madrid 2 (Ramos 52', Carvajal 69')
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
