Freeport, the second-biggest US LNG export plant, could restart operations in March this year after it was shut down due to a fire in June 2022, according to Rystad Energy.
The return of the plant, which can process up to 2.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day and export 15 million tonnes of LNG per annum, is expected to push up gas prices.
“Our current forecast anticipates the facility will begin to liquefy in March 2023,” said the Norway-based energy consultancy in a report.
Freeport’s closure came as European countries, faced with dwindling Russian exports, started increasing their imports of LNG from the US and Gulf countries, while simultaneously filling up their natural gas storage with existing supplies.
“At the time, we believed a prolonged outage would tighten global balances, especially considering EU gas demand, primarily driven by the industrial sector and winter consumption,” said Rystad analyst Ade Allen.
However, a sharp fall in industrial gas demand in Europe, along with an unusually mild winter and Covid-19 restrictions in Asia, helped to “balance” gas markets in 2022, said Mr Allen.
Rystad Energy expects EU industrial gas demand to expand “modestly” by 1.5 per cent this year.
The rise in gas storage levels has triggered a sharp fall in prices over the last few months.
Dutch Title Transfer Facility gas futures, the benchmark European contract, was last trading at €55.20 ($59.33) per megawatt hour on Wednesday.
Futures hit a record high of about €343 a megawatt hour in August last year.
Although prices have declined considerably on higher stocks, the region can still absorb incremental LNG volumes in 2023, said Rystad.
US LNG exports to Europe averaged 6.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day over the last 12 months.
“We expect this will continue; [although] gas prices have declined from the summer 2022 peak, the forward curve is still relatively elevated,” said Mr Allen.
“When Freeport LNG eventually restarts, most of its cargo will be sent to Europe as economics and transit times are competitive.”
Analysts and energy executives expect gas markets to be tight in 2023 as Russian exports fall and China’s economy recovers.
“The EU may find it more difficult this year to find substitutes for Russian gas supplies as the LNG market will likely tighten,” said Moody’s in a report last week.
“Although short-term gas prices have fallen sharply and are now back to where they stood before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we expect energy prices to remain volatile and above historical levels.”
The EU could fall short by about 27 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas this year if Russian gas deliveries drop to zero and China’s LNG imports rebound to 2021 levels, the International Energy Agency said in a December report.
The agency said the risk of shortages could be avoided through “stronger” efforts to improve energy efficiency, as well as use more renewable energy and further diversify natural gas sources.
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Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, unveils the Cop28 logo with President-designate Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Victor Besa / The National -
The Masdar display at the event. Victor Besa / The National -
The Mohamed Bin Zayed University stall. Victor Besa / The National -
Visitors walk past the Masdar stall. Victor Besa / The National -
The Adnoc display. Victor Besa / The National -
The National signage on display at the event. Victor Besa / The National -
The government of Fujairah's stall. Victor Besa / The National -
The Abu Dhabi Department of Energy's display. Victor Besa / The National -
Another view of the Adnoc stand. Victor Besa / The National -
Another view of the Masdar display. Victor Besa / The National -
Visitors at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Victor Besa / The National -
Day two of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week aims to accelerate sustainable development and advance economic, social and environmental progress. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
The Envision stand at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Masdar's stand at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
The Tadweer stand. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
The event brings together heads of state, industry leaders, entrepreneurs, investors and senior policymakers. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
A solar energy diorama on Day 2 of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week at Adnec in Abu Dhabi. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week plays host to some very big names in international business, including Huawei of China. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Saeed Al Tayer, managing director and chief executive of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, delivers a speech. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Mahmoud Mohieldin, executive director of the IMF, left, in discussion on Day 2 of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week at Adnec in Abu Dhabi. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Visitors at the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority stand at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week in Adnec, Abu Dhabi. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Awaidha Al Marar of the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy, an Abu Dhabi Executive Council Member and Member of Enec's board of directors, delivers opening remarks on Net-Zero Ambitions in Energy on Day 2 of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week at Adnec. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) stand at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week in Adnec, Abu Dhabi. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
The Aldar stand at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week in Adnec, Abu Dhabi. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
The Bee'ah stand at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week in Adnec, Abu Dhabi. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Mariam Al Mheiri, Minister of Climate Change and Environment, and Ahmed El Hoshy, chief executive of Fertiglobe, right, in a panel discussion titled A Manifesto for Food Systems at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week in Adnec, Abu Dhabi. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Sharif Al Olama, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, delivers a speech promoting solar power at the opening of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Laurent Fabius (2nd L), president of the constitutional council of France, speaks to guests at Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed speaks to John Kerry, US presidential envoy for climate, at a reception before the opening ceremony. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed meets Hakainde Hichilema, President of Zambia. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed meets Nana Akufo-Addo, President of Ghana. Photo: Presidential Court -
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, right, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Group, chief executive of Adnoc and chairman of Masdar, receives Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed greets Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kazakhstan. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed stands for a photograph with heads of state and government. (Front row: R-L) presidents Surangel Whipps Jr of Palau, Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Joao Lourenco of Angola, Filipe Nyusi of Mozambique and Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia. (Back row: R-L) Aziz Akhannouch, Prime Minister of Morocco, Wavil Ramkalawan, President of Seychelles, Hakainde Hichilema, President of Zambia, Yoweri Museveni, President of Uganda, Tiemoko Meyliet Kone, Vice President of Ivory Coast and Dr Sultan Al Jaber. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed greets a guest. Photo: Presidential Court -
Dr Al Jaber with Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed greets Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Photo: Presidential Court -
(Back row L-R) Siaosi Sovaleni, Prime Minister of Tonga, Aziz Akhannouch, Prime Minister of Morocco, Wavil Ramkalawan, President of Seychelles, Hakainde Hichilema, President of Zambia, Surangel Whipps Jr, President of Palau, Nana Akufo-Addo, President of Ghana, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kazakhstan, Yoon Suk Yeol, President of South Korea, President Sheikh Mohamed, Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, Joao Lourenco, President of Angola, Filipe Nyusi, President of Mozambique, Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Yoweri Museveni, President of Uganda, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, former president of Iceland and chairman of Arctic Circle, Tiemoko Meyliet Kone, Vice President of Ivory Coast, and Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed presents the 2023 Zayed Sustainability Prize for East Asia & Pacific Global High Schools to a representative from Kamil Muslim College, Fiji. Photo: Presidential Court -
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kazakhstan (L), and President Sheikh Mohamed present the 2023 Zayed Sustainability Prize for Americas Global High Schools, to a representative from Fundacion Bios Terrae in Colombia. Photo: Presidential Court -
(L-R) Sheikh Saif bin Zayed, UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, Kim Keon Hee, first lady of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, President of South Korea, President Sheikh Mohamed, Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Presidential Court, Joao Lourenco, President of Angola and Ana Dias Lourenco, first lady of Angola. Photo: Presidential Court -
Guests stand for the national anthem during the opening ceremony of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Photo: Presidential Court -
Children sing the UAE national anthem . Photo: Presidential Court -
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Cop28 President-designate and the UAE's special envoy on climate change, speaks at the opening of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Mr Yoon, a keynote speaker at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
US climate envoy John Kerry, centre. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev. Khushnum Bhandari / The National -
From left, Phillip Cornell, senior fellow of Atlantic Council Global Energy Centre; Christian Bruch, president and chief executive officer of Siemens Energy; Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman, president and chief executive of Baker Hughes; and Marisa Drew, chief sustainability officer of Standard Chartered. Khushnum Bhandari / The National
