Oil prices continued to oscillate, edging lower for the week over concerns about a slowing global economy and weaker fuel demand, after rallying on strong US economic data and a large draw of American crude inventory.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, gained 0.13 per cent to settle at $96.72 at the close of trading on Friday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, closed up 0.3 per cent to end the week at $90.77 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell about 1.5 per cent on the week.
WTI strengthened towards the end of the week after the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that crude oil stocks for the week ending August 12, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, decreased by 7.1 million barrels from the previous week.
Excluding the strategic reserves, US crude oil stocks are now at 425 million barrels, 6 per cent below the five-year average, according to the EIA.
“Prices are off from the lows of the week and this is primarily due to bigger than expected drawdown in the crude oil inventory data," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade.
"Most traders are concerned that extra supply coming from Opec and also the possibility of Iranian oil hitting the market. The good news is that US oil refineries intend to keep operating at or near full throttle throughout this quarter. In order to meet demand for more fuel, refiners are putting their concerns regarding the economic downturn and falling retail prices to the side."
In an interview with Bloomberg this week Opec secretary general Haitham Al Ghais said that global oil markets remained at risk of a supply squeeze.
Oil prices have remained volatile this year, with the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in February jolting markets.
Years of underinvestment in the energy sector and the war, now in its sixth month, led to a sharp increase in commodity and energy prices, with Brent within touching distance of $140 a barrel in March.
Oil has given up much of the gains since the outbreak of the Ukraine war amid rising concerns about the global economy sliding into a recession.
In July, the International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecast for the global economy for the second time this year, due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a slowdown in China and rising inflation.
The fund projects global growth at 3.2 per cent in 2022 and 2.9 per cent in 2023, compared with a 6.1 per cent expansion last year. It fund warned if further risks materialise and inflation rises further, global growth could decline to about 2.6 per cent and 2 per cent in 2022 and 2023, respectively, which would put growth in the bottom 10 per cent of outcomes since 1970.
A potential agreement on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which the US unilaterally withdrew from under the Trump administration, could add more oil to the market and ease the supply crunch caused by the Ukraine conflict.
Opec+, the oil producers group comprising Opec and its allies including Russia, will meet on September 5 to review their output.
Earlier this month, Opec+ agreed to increase its September output by a much slower 100,000 barrels per day, as it noted there was a “severely limited availability of excess capacity”, with “chronic underinvestment” reducing the ability of the oil industry to respond to supply shortfalls and a growth in demand.
Opec+ agreed in June to raise its July and August crude production by about 50 per cent to 648,000 bpd, fully restoring the 5.8 million bpd output that was cut during the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
