Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine has introduced a risk premium in oil prices that is likely to remain embedded in markets for months, according to analysts. AP
Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine has introduced a risk premium in oil prices that is likely to remain embedded in markets for months, according to analysts. AP
Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine has introduced a risk premium in oil prices that is likely to remain embedded in markets for months, according to analysts. AP
Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine has introduced a risk premium in oil prices that is likely to remain embedded in markets for months, according to analysts. AP

IEA countries to release 60 million more barrels of oil to tackle soaring prices


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Member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed on Thursday to release 60 million more barrels of oil from reserves to tackle soaring prices after Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine.

The move follows last month’s action taken by IEA members where they pledged to release 62.7 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the Paris-based agency said.

This latest collective action once again demonstrates the unity of IEA member countries in their solidarity with Ukraine and their determination to provide stability to the oil market during this challenging time
Fatih Birol,
IEA’s executive director

The 31-member nations of the IEA — which include the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, most of Europe, Australia, Japan, Mexico and others — will now release a total of 120 million barrels from their emergency reserves, the largest release in the agency’s 47-year history.

About half of that amount will come from US reserves, included in Washington’s previously announced decision to release 180 million barrels of oil over six months.

“The unprecedented decision to launch two emergency oil stock releases just a month apart, and on a scale larger than anything before in the IEA’s history, reflects the determination of member countries to protect the global economy from the social and economic impacts of an oil shock following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,” IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol said.

At the start of the Russia’s war in Ukraine, IEA member countries held 1.5 billion barrels in public reserves and about 575 million barrels under obligations with industry.

IEA's latest co-ordinated drawdown agreement will be the fifth since the agency was created in 1974. Previous collective actions were taken in 1991, 2005, 2011 and last month, it said.

Emergency oil stocks in IEA member countries are either in the form of public stocks (government-owned or by specialised agencies) or stocks held by industry under an obligation of the government.

In the case of public stocks, these can be released through tenders or loans to the market, which will be launched and released over the coming weeks

In the case of obligated industry stocks, obligations will be lowered through legislative decrees or administrative mandates, to make the volumes available for consumption, the IEA said.

Over the next six months, around 240 million barrels of emergency oil stocks, the equivalent of more than 1 million barrels per day, will be made available to the global market, the agency said.

“This latest collective action once again demonstrates the unity of IEA member countries in their solidarity with Ukraine and their determination to provide stability to the oil market during this challenging time," Mr Birol said.

“Events in Ukraine are becoming more distressing by the day, and action by the IEA at this time is needed to relieve some of the strains in energy markets."

The latest development comes as oil prices continued to trade higher on supply concerns and rising demand amid a global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil prices, which rose 68 per cent last year amid faster-than-expected economic rebound, have been extremely volatile this year, rocked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Brent is up about 30 per cent since the start of this year after falling from a 14-year high this month when the benchmark nearly touched $140 per barrel.

Brent, the global benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, was trading at 100.70 per barrel at 11.03pm UAE time on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was at $96.35 a barrel.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has introduced a risk premium in oil prices that is likely to remain embedded in markets for months,” said Ehsan Khoman, director of emerging markets research for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at MUFG Bank.

Deliveries of Russian seaborne crude are set to collapse in the second quarter due to sanctions.

“Combined with the simultaneous deficits of depleting inventories and thinning spare capacity amid a dearth of structural under investments still miring the complex, our modelling estimates point to a materially higher oil profile over the near-term," Mr Khoman said.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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