Energy subsidies prove drain on Indian economy



Energy subsidies need to be addressed as a priority issue in India, according to the World Energy Council.

Fuel subsidies have proved a major cost to India and have resulted in the country creating an unsustainable fiscal deficit over the years because of its heavy dependent on oil imports. India’s fuel subsidies reached an estimated 1.4 trillion rupees (Dh83 billion) in the financial year to March 2014, according to Moody’s.

But India has been gradually reducing its expenditure on subsidies for consumers. Narendra Modi’s government in October ended government-controlled diesel subsidies in an effort to cut spending. This followed the previous government’s reduction of diesel subsidies. Petrol was deregulated in India two years ago. Subsidies on kerosene and propane are still in place.

“Energy subsidies, perceived to be a critical uncertainty in 2014, now have moved towards the need-for-action quadrant of the map,” the World Energy Council highlighted in a recent report. “The drop in uncertainty could be explained through the decision of the Modi government to continue with the diesel subsidy reforms initiated through the previous government. The cost of energy subsidies in India is planned to decrease to less than 0.5 per cent of Indian GDP by 2016. Hence there is a need for action to ensure that planned changes are being implemented accordingly.”

It says that India is one of the biggest energy consumers in the world, after China, the United States and Russia. India’s energy demand is rising an annual growth rate of 2.8 per cent, according to the organisation.

Reducing subsidies is considered politically sensitive because such moves are often unpopular with the masses, who are also voters.

But because oil prices have come down sharply anyway, consumers have not noticed a negative impact from the removal of the government subsidies on diesel yet, which has actually come down in price compared to before the price controls were removed.

Savings from fuel subsidies can be used in other ways, such as helping the poor in a more targeted manner and infrastructure spending, experts have noted.

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8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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