Moody's Investors Service said a downgrade of Turkey's sovereign credit rating will hinge on the policies it takes to reduce risk of a balance of payments crisis amid an escalating standoff with the United States.
The lira rallied on Wednesday after Turkey's banking regulator took measures to shore up the battered currency. It had depreciated nearly 40 per cent against the dollar this year, driven by concerns over President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's macroeconomic policies and his stance against raising interest rates despite high inflation.
"We would likely downgrade Turkey's ratings if we conclude that policymaking is unlikely to be able to prevent a further deterioration in Turkey's external position, leading to a sustained rise in the risk of a balance of payments crisis," Mathias Angonin, sovereign analyst at Moody's, told The National.
In June, credit rating agency Moody's said it would place Turkey's credit rating on review for a downgrade, citing the uncertainty around the future direction of its macroeconomic policies. This came after it had cut its rating by one notch in March to Ba2, two levels below investment grade. During this week, the lira slumped to record lows, after the US imposed sanctions on Turkey for jailing an American pastor. The currency plunge raised concerns of a banking crisis and rekindled long-running worries about economic mismanagement.
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Turkey escalates US feud by increasing tariffs on products
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Turkey slapped tariffs ranging from 60 to 140 per cent on some American goods in retaliation to the US moves, upping the stakes in a feud with the Nato ally on Wednesday. The taxed imports include alcohol, cars and tobacco, in retaliation to tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last week on Turkish metals exports.
The new round of tariffs followed President Erdogan's call on Tuesday to boycott US electronic products and earlier urging Turks to sell their dollars and euros to prop up the lira.
Turkey's economic crisis has deeper roots beyond the market reaction triggered by rising tensions with the US. High inflation, a large current account deficit and a sizable external funding requirement are among the major factors behind the crisis, according to analysts.
"Worsening relations with the US, the unresponsiveness of policy (including the central bank’s) and fears of the politicisation of economic decision-making have exacerbated the situation," Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said in a report.
"We expect that Turkey will have to introduce deep fiscal and monetary tightening to stabilise the Turkish lira, which in turn will dampen economic activity further."
Markets have called on Turkey to increase its interest rate to help reduce high inflation levels, but President Erdogan's aversion to interest rates has been clear, calling them "the mother of all evil."
Turkey's banking watchdog on Wednesday limited the amount of currency swap transactions that banks can participate in by half. The move by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, or BDDK as
it is known, is aimed at deterring short-selling of the currency.
However, investors are calling for more aggressive measures that will demonstrate the central bank's independence from the president by raising borrowing costs substantially.
"In the absence of aggressive central bank actions, however, the lira will continue to drop and net capital outflows will continue, " Andy Birch, principal economist at IHS Markit, said. "Without net capital inflows, reserves will fall farther, eventually undermining Turkey's ability to finance its current-account deficit, forcing a more substantial correction of the imbalance in the latter portions of 2018 and into 2019."
Company Profile
Company name: Namara
Started: June 2022
Founder: Mohammed Alnamara
Based: Dubai
Sector: Microfinance
Current number of staff: 16
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Family offices
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Abramovich London
A Kensington Palace Gardens house with 15 bedrooms is valued at more than £150 million.
A three-storey penthouse at Chelsea Waterfront bought for £22 million.
Steel company Evraz drops more than 10 per cent in trading after UK officials said it was potentially supplying the Russian military.
Sale of Chelsea Football Club is now impossible.
Match info
Liverpool 3
Hoedt (10' og), Matip (21'), Salah (45+3')
Southampton 0
Biography
Favourite book: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
Holiday choice: Anything Disney-related
Proudest achievement: Receiving a presidential award for foreign services.
Family: Wife and three children.
Like motto: You always get what you ask for, the universe listens.
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Klipit
Started: 2022
Founders: Venkat Reddy, Mohammed Al Bulooki, Bilal Merchant, Asif Ahmed, Ovais Merchant
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Digital receipts, finance, blockchain
Funding: $4 million
Investors: Privately/self-funded
Tips to avoid getting scammed
1) Beware of cheques presented late on Thursday
2) Visit an RTA centre to change registration only after receiving payment
3) Be aware of people asking to test drive the car alone
4) Try not to close the sale at night
5) Don't be rushed into a sale
6) Call 901 if you see any suspicious behaviour
How it works
A $10 hand-powered LED light and battery bank
Device is operated by hand cranking it at any time during the day or night
The charge is stored inside a battery
The ratio is that for every minute you crank, it provides 10 minutes light on the brightest mode
A full hand wound charge is of 16.5minutes
This gives 1.1 hours of light on high mode or 2.5 hours of light on low mode
When more light is needed, it can be recharged by winding again
The larger version costs between $18-20 and generates more than 15 hours of light with a 45-minute charge
No limit on how many times you can charge
Syria squad
Goalkeepers: Ibrahim Alma, Mahmoud Al Youssef, Ahmad Madania.
Defenders: Ahmad Al Salih, Moayad Ajan, Jehad Al Baour, Omar Midani, Amro Jenyat, Hussein Jwayed, Nadim Sabagh, Abdul Malek Anezan.
Midfielders: Mahmoud Al Mawas, Mohammed Osman, Osama Omari, Tamer Haj Mohamad, Ahmad Ashkar, Youssef Kalfa, Zaher Midani, Khaled Al Mobayed, Fahd Youssef.
Forwards: Omar Khribin, Omar Al Somah, Mardik Mardikian.
'Tell the Machine Goodnight' by Katie Williams
Penguin Randomhouse
Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
Avedis Hadjian, (IB Tauris)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
Nick's journey in numbers
Countries so far: 85
Flights: 149
Steps: 3.78 million
Calories: 220,000
Floors climbed: 2,000
Donations: GPB37,300
Prostate checks: 5
Blisters: 15
Bumps on the head: 2
Dog bites: 1
The stats and facts
1.9 million women are at risk of developing cervical cancer in the UAE
80% of people, females and males, will get human papillomavirus (HPV) once in their lifetime
Out of more than 100 types of HPV, 14 strains are cancer-causing
99.9% of cervical cancers are caused by the virus
A five-year survival rate of close to 96% can be achieved with regular screenings for cervical cancer detection
Women aged 25 to 29 should get a Pap smear every three years
Women aged 30 to 65 should do a Pap smear and HPV test every five years
Children aged 13 and above should get the HPV vaccine
THE SPECS
Battery: 60kW lithium-ion phosphate
Power: Up to 201bhp
0 to 100kph: 7.3 seconds
Range: 418km
Price: From Dh149,900
Available: Now
Company profile
Company name: Fasset
Started: 2019
Founders: Mohammad Raafi Hossain, Daniel Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $2.45 million
Current number of staff: 86
Investment stage: Pre-series B
Investors: Investcorp, Liberty City Ventures, Fatima Gobi Ventures, Primal Capital, Wealthwell Ventures, FHS Capital, VN2 Capital, local family offices
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Directors: Scott Beck, Bryan Woods
Stars: Adam Driver, Ariana Greenblatt, Chloe Coleman
Rating: 2/5