Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said protests in Iraq have not had an impact yet on the country's oil production. Victor Besa / The National
Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said protests in Iraq have not had an impact yet on the country's oil production. Victor Besa / The National
Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said protests in Iraq have not had an impact yet on the country's oil production. Victor Besa / The National
Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said protests in Iraq have not had an impact yet on the country's oil production. Victor Besa / The National

Iraq protests not impacting country's oil production yet, IMF official says


Deena Kamel
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Iraq's oil production and oil fields have not suffered any effect from the nationwide protests, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Opec's second-biggest member has been gripped by upheaval in recent weeks, as people protested against economic hardship, poor public services, unemployment and corruption.

"We are concerned with the violence and loss of life, we are closely watching and so far there is no impact on oil production or fields. With the presence of ample reserves, it's not yet expected that this could have an impact at the moment on oil price," Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, said at a press conference in Dubai on Monday.

Despite the country's vast oil wealth, many Iraqis are living in poverty or with limited access to basic provisions, as the nation struggles to recover from years of conflict. Rounds of live bullets, tear gas and other violence has left more than 200 dead since the demonstrations began in early October.

  • Iraqi security forces fire tear gas to disperse anti-government protesters during a demonstration in Tahrir Square, Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
    Iraqi security forces fire tear gas to disperse anti-government protesters during a demonstration in Tahrir Square, Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
  • Iraqi protesters chant slogans as they stand over a high building with a banner reading in Arabic 'people want to bring down the regime' during a demonstration at al-Tahrir square, in central Baghdad, Iraq. EPA
    Iraqi protesters chant slogans as they stand over a high building with a banner reading in Arabic 'people want to bring down the regime' during a demonstration at al-Tahrir square, in central Baghdad, Iraq. EPA
  • Demonstrators hold Iraqi flags during a protest over corruption, lack of jobs, and poor services, in Baghdad, Iraq. Reuters
    Demonstrators hold Iraqi flags during a protest over corruption, lack of jobs, and poor services, in Baghdad, Iraq. Reuters
  • Members of Iraq's Shiite Muslim Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation units) paramilitary force carry the coffin of their fellow comrade during his funeral in the central holy shrine city of Najaf. AFP
    Members of Iraq's Shiite Muslim Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation units) paramilitary force carry the coffin of their fellow comrade during his funeral in the central holy shrine city of Najaf. AFP
  • Anti-government protesters pull down concrete walls on a bridge leading to the Green Zone during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
    Anti-government protesters pull down concrete walls on a bridge leading to the Green Zone during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
  • Security forces fire tear gas and close the bridge leading to the Green Zone during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
    Security forces fire tear gas and close the bridge leading to the Green Zone during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
  • An anti-government protester throws back the smoke bomb back towards riot police during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq.AP Photo
    An anti-government protester throws back the smoke bomb back towards riot police during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq.AP Photo
  • Iraqi protesters gather over the Al-Jumhuriya Bridge that leads to the headquarters of the Iraqi government inside the high security Green Zone area, during the ongoing protests in central Baghdad, Iraq. EPA
    Iraqi protesters gather over the Al-Jumhuriya Bridge that leads to the headquarters of the Iraqi government inside the high security Green Zone area, during the ongoing protests in central Baghdad, Iraq. EPA
  • Anti-government protesters remove barriers on a bridge leading to the Green Zone during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
    Anti-government protesters remove barriers on a bridge leading to the Green Zone during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
  • An injured protestor is rushed to a hospital during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
    An injured protestor is rushed to a hospital during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq. AP Photo
  • Members of the Hashed al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), paramilitaries stand guard during a funerary procession for Wissam Alyawi, a leading commander of the Asaib Ahl Al-Haq faction that is part of the PMF, in the Iraqi capital Baghdad. The headquarters of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq in Iraq's southeastern Missan province was torched on October 25, with the group's leading commander and his brother killed, after being stormed by protesters. Alyawi was pronounced dead by the group after footage circulated online showing him writhing in an ambulance as a crowd of men tried to break into it. AFP
    Members of the Hashed al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), paramilitaries stand guard during a funerary procession for Wissam Alyawi, a leading commander of the Asaib Ahl Al-Haq faction that is part of the PMF, in the Iraqi capital Baghdad. The headquarters of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq in Iraq's southeastern Missan province was torched on October 25, with the group's leading commander and his brother killed, after being stormed by protesters. Alyawi was pronounced dead by the group after footage circulated online showing him writhing in an ambulance as a crowd of men tried to break into it. AFP

The IMF said oil prices are "decoupling" from regional geopolitical tensions, with incidents in the region leading to a short-lived spike in oil prices. The muted reaction of oil prices to political risk is because of increased supply from US shale oil production as well as a global economic slowdown dampening demand.

Iraq's economy is expected to expand  3.4 per cent in 2019, from a 0.6 per cent contraction in 2018, on higher public spending and a "modest" increase in oil production, the IMF said in its Regional Economic Output report.

"The economy needs to create more jobs and the impact of recent security developments requires more spending on rebuilding infrastructure," Mr Azour said in an interview.

Across the border, Iran's economy is forecast to shrink 9.5 per cent in 2019, from a contraction of 4.8 per cent last year, due to the impact of US sanctions, the IMF said.

In 2020, economic growth in Iran will be flat and the IMF urged authorities to act quickly to address the impact by realigning the exchange rate with the market rate, reforming the banking system and creating a safety net for low-income people to alleviate the impact of inflation, Mr Azour said. Inflation rates will reach around 35 per cent in 2019 and hover around 30 per cent next year.