The recovery in China’s service sector activity extended into a fifth straight month in September, an industry survey showed on Friday, with hiring increasing for the second month in a row.
The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.8 from August’s 54.0, the highest reading since June and staying well above the 50-mark that separates monthly growth from contraction.
The services sector, which accounts for about 60 per cent of the economy and half of urban jobs, had initially been slower to return to growth than large manufacturers, but the recovery has gathered pace in recent months as Covid-19 restrictions on public gatherings lifted.
Firms hired more for the second month in a row, although at a still modest rate, indicating some recovery in a labour market that has been hit by sharp falls in demand and epidemic restrictions earlier in the year.
Domestic demand drove new orders, with the survey showing new export businesses received by Chinese services firms slipping further into contraction in September.
“The services sector’s post-epidemic recovery showed signs of speeding up,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, in comments released alongside the survey.
Service firms remained optimistic about business prospects as the economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 lockdowns, with a sub-index for confidence in the year rising from August.
The official PMI also showed activity in China’s services sector expanded at a faster pace in September.
China estimated that 13 million railway passenger trips were made on October 1, the start of the Golden Week holiday, the highest for a single day since the coronavirus outbreak began in February, according to state media.
However, this figure is still well below the 17 million trips made the same day last year.
Recent economic indicators ranging from trade to producer prices have all suggested a further pick-up in the industrial sector, adding to the demand recovery from the coronavirus-induced slump.
Many analysts expect China to be the only major economy to mark positive annual growth in 2020, although at decades-low levels.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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1. |
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2. |
China |
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3. |
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Singapore |
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8. |
Australia |
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Saudi Arabia |
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10. |
South Korea |
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