Dozens of ships have managed to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, but attempts remain highly risky and are no substitute for a free and open waterway, industry experts have warned.
Reports claim anywhere between 30 and 70 vessels have crossed the strait – some with US military guidance and even helicopter escorts – since early May. They have faced the triple threat of Iranian sea mines, missiles and fast attack boats.
Analysts say crossings remain an exception and are not a sign that maritime traffic has returned to normal.
“The transit of ships through the strait is extremely scant and for it to become mainstream, it will require agreement on both the sides – the US and Iran. Until the time there is a peace deal, we see reports of such transits as only exceptions,” Junaid Ansari, director and head of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest, told The National.
Kpler trade-risk analyst
Twenty-nine of the 109 larger vessels — those capable of hauling 700,000 barrels or more that were stranded when the strait was effectively shut after the conflict started on February 28 — have now crossed the chokepoint, shipping data compiled by Bloomberg shows.
Ship-tracking data shows at least a quarter of the non-Iranian ships stranded in the strait since the conflict began have made their way out.
However, around 100 container ships remain trapped in the Arabian Gulf, says Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight-pricing platform Xeneta.
German shipping firm Hapag-Lloyd said four of its vessels are still stuck, with one having been in transit for four weeks. “Passing with US help could be an option if vessels can be protected from attacks and if the path to be crossed is mine-free and safe,” a representative of the company said.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he expected a deal with Iran to be completed within the coming week to reopen the strait, after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to stop attacking each other in Lebanon.
“There is no military solution to the strait and the wider war,” said Chris Newton, senior analyst at Crisis Group. “Hormuz is likely to reopen and stay open through negotiations, probably as part of a deal about the war overall.”
Meanwhile, US support for transit of vessels is “not scalable” in the same way as normal open navigation, but can help move stranded or high-priority vessels, according to Kepler, a data and analytics company that provides real-time tracking and intelligence for global commodity and maritime markets.
“The reason the quieter approach appears to be working better than a much more public ‘force open Hormuz’ plan is that it lowers the political and military threshold,” said Ana Subasic, trade-risk analyst at Kpler.
“Instead of creating a visible test of wills with Iran, the US seems to be helping selected vessels move through with co-ordination, intelligence, route guidance and security support. That gives shipowners a path through, without turning every transit into a public confrontation.”
But Ms Subasic said the guided transit model is still a triage system, not a fully functioning trade corridor. “For Hormuz to be genuinely reopened, ships need predictable security, insurance cover, crew confidence and a reasonable expectation that they will not be attacked, boarded, mined or detained.”
Kpler data shows around 412 ships still trapped or waiting in the Arabian Gulf, based on the latest verified snapshot. It observed about 55 crossings between May 22 and 28, four more on May 29 and five each on May 30 and 31.
“So there is movement but it is still a controlled, partial flow rather than a return to normal transit conditions,” said Ms Subasic.
It is difficult to immediately verify US claims because most reported transits occurred without broadcasting their location, says Chris Newton, senior analyst at Crisis Group.
“Determining what actually happened will take time, as these vessels are located later on in their voyages. The number of US-co-ordinated transits is also low for daily crossings: this shows incremental progress but not a breakthrough,” he said. Some crossings were already under way near Oman’s coast, he added.
Significant risks
Meanwhile, Kpler said risks remain significant as ships are guided through the channel. Vessels could still face drones, missiles, mines, fast-attack boats, attempted boardings, disruption to GPS or the automatic identification system (AIS), misidentification, or escalation between military forces.
“Sailing with AIS off may reduce targeting risk but it also complicates transparency, collision avoidance and independent tracking,” Ms Subasic said.
Amid Iran’s latest threats to tighten the noose on the Strait of Hormuz, the MSC Sariska V was attacked off the coast of Iraq on Tuesday., there was an attack on the MSC Sariska V vessel off Iraq on Tuesday.
It left a large hole in the hull. MSC said Iran's actions were “completely unjustified”.
“Iran’s claimed control of the strait remains and it will not give up its leverage in negotiations with the US for nothing,” said Mr Newton. “Iran is still capable of threatening commercial ships and it is unclear how much direct protection the US is offering ships using the southern corridor from Iran's fast attack craft, missiles, drones and mines. Each of these transits carries a risk of attack by Iran.”
War risk premiums
Ships crossing the strait backed by a US naval convoy would still need to take out costly insurance cover, with war risk premiums soaring 4,000 times higher than before the crisis, according to maritime risk analysis and insurance market reports.
But any ship that attempts to pass will take out insurance cover currently offered at 4 per cent of the ship’s value for a seven-day policy. The same policy before the crisis could be as low as 0.001 per cent.
“It’s astronomically higher,” said Captain Chris O’Flaherty, a naval mining expert. “Normal steaming around the world’s oceans is 0.001 per cent of the ship’s value for war risk.”
“There will be caveats and each policy will be different, but if you’re going to transit through, you would need to tell your insurer in advance, and that’s when the insurer is going to impose the appropriate premium,” he said.
According to Mr Ansari of Kamco Invest, shipping fees should “remain elevated” compared to prewar levels and should subside only with a backlog of two to three months after the route reopens fully.
Short-term container shipping freight rates have jumped all over the globe due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Xeneta’s Mr Sand added. “Compared to pre-conflict, average spot rates in June are expected to be 75 per cent more from China to the US East Coast, 51 per cent higher to North Europe, 45 per cent to the Mediterranean and 57 per cent on the transatlantic from North Europe to US East Coast,” he said.
