Serbia's capital Belgrade. The country a leading trading partner for the UAE. Getty Images
Serbia's capital Belgrade. The country a leading trading partner for the UAE. Getty Images
Serbia's capital Belgrade. The country a leading trading partner for the UAE. Getty Images
Serbia's capital Belgrade. The country a leading trading partner for the UAE. Getty Images

UAE-Serbia trade to accelerate as Cepa comes into effect


Alvin R Cabral
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The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the UAE and Serbia came into force on Saturday, as the Emirates continues to strengthen its trade relations globally.

The UAE's 10th Cepa is expected to boost trade and investment flows, and remove or significantly reduce tariffs, which will all lay the foundations for enhanced co-operation across a spectrum of critical industries, the Ministry of Economy said in a statement on Saturday.

The deal is also leading to projections that bilateral trade between the two nations will contribute around $351 million to the UAE's gross domestic product by 2031, it added.

The UAE is Serbia’s leading trading partner in the Gulf, accounting for approximately 55 per cent of its total trade with the region in 2023, according to government data.

The UAE-Serbia Cepa is another "new chapter in our economic relations, creating new avenues for collaboration, investment and trade that will benefit both our nations", Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, said in the statement.

"Through this agreement we are committed to unlocking significant opportunities that will create jobs, strengthen supply chains and facilitate a thriving environment for businesses in both countries," he added.

Cepas that the UAE has already signed with nations from Colombia to Australia have contributed Dh135 billion ($36.8 billion) to the country's non-oil trade, an increase of 42 per cent compared with the previous year, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, said previously.

The UAE's non-oil foreign trade hit a record Dh3 trillion last year − up 14.6 per cent year-on-year − as the country continues to diversify its economy and forges closer trade ties with countries around the world.

The Cepa programme is key for the UAE’s economic growth. The Arab world's second largest economy aims to boost its gross domestic product to $800 billion by 2030, with a target of more than $1.1 trillion in total non-oil trade by 2031.

Overall, the UAE has concluded 27 deals as part of the Cepa initiative. In 2025 alone, and counting Serbia's, the UAE has signed seven new deals with Malaysia, New Zealand, Kenya, Ukraine, Central African Republic, Costa Rica and Mauritius.

The UAE and the EU are also in discussions for a Cepa, with both sides moving closer to an agreement, Maros Sefcovic, EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, told The National this week.

The UAE's Cepa with Serbia is projected to further boost non-oil trade between the two countries, which hit about $121.4 million in 2024, twice that compared to 2021 levels, according to government data.

Serbia is positioned as a key partner for the UAE, with its diverse economy and strategic location providing a vital gateway into Eastern Europe and the Balkans.

"The Cepa is expected to not only enhance trade but also increase private sector collaboration and promote investments in priority sectors such as renewable energy, agriculture, logistics and technology," the statement said.

The bilateral relationship has been further strengthened by increasing flows of FDI [foreign direct investment], which has been directed towards high-growth sectors, enhancing shared economic interests."

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law 

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Updated: June 02, 2025, 8:17 AM