US consumer confidence dips again over inflation anxiety

Latest report marks fourth time in five months that consumer confidence has declined

Consumer confidence declined in the US for the fourth time in the past five months. Bloomberg

Consumer confidence fell in May as Americans became more pessimistic about the labour market, on top of elevated anxiety over inflation.

The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 102.3 in May from 103.7 in April. This is the fourth time in five months that overall US consumer confidence has declined.

The business research group’s present situation index – which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labour market conditions – fell to 148.6 from 151.8 last month.

The board’s expectations index – a measure of consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business and labour conditions – inched down to 71.5 this month from 71.7 in April.

A reading under 80 often signals a recession in the coming year. The Conference Board noted that the reading has come in below 80 every month but one since February 2022.

Consumer spending, which makes up about 70 per cent of US economic activity, has remained strong despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates 10 straight times since March of last year in its effort to cool the economy and bring down persistent, four-decade high inflation.

Last week, the government reported that consumer spending jumped 0.8 per cent from March to April, the biggest increase since January. Much of the increase was driven by spending on new cars, which soared 6.2 per cent. Among other items, Americans also bought more computers, petrol and clothing.

Consumer prices in the US rose again in April, and measures of underlying inflation stayed high.

However, the latest data did provide some evidence of cooling inflation, particularly at the supermarket. Prices for some services, including airline fares and hotel rooms, also fell.

The Conference Board noted that consumers' assessment of current employment conditions saw significant deterioration, even as the labour market remains resilient in the face of rising rates.

US employers added a healthy 253,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.4 per cent, matching a 54-year low. But the jobless rate fell in part because 43,000 people left the labour force – the first drop since November – and were no longer counted as unemployed.

While hiring was solid in April, it was much weaker in February and March than the government had previously estimated. Job gains for those months was downgraded by a combined 149,000.