Saudi Arabia's gross domestic product exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in 2022 as its economy grew by 8.7 per cent, while the unemployment rate among citizens also fell sharply, according to data estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat).
The kingdom's GDP at constant prices reached 4.2 trillion Saudi riyals ($1.12 trillion) last year, buoyed by non-oil sector growth.
The non-oil sector contributed about 2.3 trillion riyals to the kingdom’s GDP, accounting for 61 per cent of the total, while the hydrocarbon sector added 1.61 trillion riyals, or 39 per cent, Al Rajhi Capital said in a report.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate among Saudi citizens fell to 8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, from 9.9 per cent in the third quarter, according to government data.
This is the “lowest level based on data available since 2017", Al Rajhi Capital said.
The overall unemployment rate in the kingdom, for Saudis and non-Saudis, was at 4.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, down from 5.8 per cent in the previous quarter and 6.9 per cent a year ago, according to estimates from Gastat's Labour Force Survey.
“The impressive decrease in the unemployment rate was the result of a double effect of the decrease in labour force participation and, at the same time, the growth in employment,” Gastat said.
Saudi Arabia, the Arab's world's largest economy, recorded the highest annual growth rate among the world’s 20 biggest economies in 2022, according to the latest data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Business activity in the non-oil economy of Saudi Arabia also hit an eight-year high in February as output growth in the kingdom strengthened, according to the Riyad Bank purchasing managers’ index.
Meanwhile, inflation in the kingdom softened to 3 per cent in February, from 3.4 per cent in January, Al Rajhi Capital said in its report.
The rise in the consumer price index for the month was mainly from housing, water, electricity and gas costs, which increased by 7 per cent annually.
The kingdom is in the middle of a major economic diversification drive under its Vision 2030 agenda, amid a push to reduce its reliance on oil and tap into other high-growth industries to boost its economy, create more jobs and attract private investment.
Among the key goals of the strategy is to lower the unemployment rate to 7 per cent, from 11.6 per cent, while also increasing the participation of women in the workforce to 30 per cent from 22 per cent.
“Strong economic growth and hiring by both government and private sector contributed to [the] decline in unemployment [in the fourth quarter],” Al Rajhi Capital said in its report.
The employment-to-population ratio for Saudi citizens in the fourth quarter rose by 1.6 per cent on a quarterly basis to 64.1 per cent, while the labour force participation rate for Saudis decreased by 0.1 per cent to 68.9 per cent, Gastat said.
Among the Saudis in the core working age population (aged 25-54), the unemployment rate fell by 2.5 per cent on a quarterly basis to 7 per cent.
“The decrease in the unemployment rate for the Saudi core working age population was mainly driven by a big drop in the unemployment rate for females, down 5.8 percentage points from 20.4 per cent in Q3 [third quarter of] 2022 to 14.6 per cent in Q4 2022,” it said.
According to Gastat's survey, 94.1 per cent of unemployed Saudis are ready to accept employment in the private sector.
Meanwhile, among unemployed Saudi nationals, 73 per cent of women and 89.1 per cent of men said that they would accept to work for eight hours or more a day.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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