Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to grow at the quickest pace in a decade and will likely be one of the world’s fastest-growing economies this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Sweeping pro-business reforms implemented by the country, together with a sharp rise in oil prices and increased crude production, have powered the kingdom’s recovery from the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, the IMF said on Wednesday.
“Growth, driven by both oil production expansion and a continued robust non-oil recovery, is expected to pick up strongly this year,” the IMF said in a report at the conclusion of its Article IV consultation with the kingdom.
“Sustained oil output, higher oil prices than previously forecasted and strong reform implementation will support non-oil growth over the medium term.”
Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product is forecast to expand 7.6 per cent this year after 3.2 per cent growth in 2021, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook update last month. Non-oil growth will increase to 4.2 per cent in 2022 before returning to its medium-term potential of 4 per cent.
Saudi Arabia’s economy, the largest in the Arab world, grew 11.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2022, with oil-related economic activity in the kingdom rising 23.1 per cent annually. Non-oil economic activity climbed 5.4 per cent during the period, according to government data released in July.
Oil prices have remained volatile this year amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Brent, the global benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil that rose 67 per cent last year, has come off its recent highs amid concerns for demand outlook. It is, however, still about 20 per cent higher than at the beginning of this year.
Despite a sharp rise in prices of imported commodities, inflation in Saudi Arabia will remain contained at 2.8 per cent in 2022, as the central bank tightens policy in line with the US Federal Reserve, the IMF said on Wednesday.
Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia increased by 2.7 per cent on an annual basis in July, higher than the 2.3 per cent rate of inflation recorded in June, Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics said last week.
Inflation globally has risen sharply, driven by a steep increase in the prices of food and other commodities amid the war in Ukraine. However, it has been significantly lower in the GCC than in most advanced and emerging market countries amid improved economic activity.
_________________________
_________________________
The IMF said the kingdom’s overall fiscal balance increased by almost 9 percentage points of GDP to a 2.3 per cent of GDP deficit last year.
An increase in oil proceeds amid rising production also improved the current account by 8.5 percentage points in 2021, registering a surplus of 5.3 per cent of GDP.
Saudi Arabia’s public finances and the country’s external position will strengthen "substantially", along with the kingdom's net foreign assets, on the back of increased non-oil revenue and higher proceeds from oil exports, the fund said.
“Reserve buffers will remain ample” this year amid continued economic momentum, Amine Mati, an IMF assistant director and Sidra Rehman, an economist at the fund, said in a blogpost on Wednesday.
Maintaining control of public spending will be important for policymakers in Riyadh, but there is scope for “more targeted social spending”.
“Managing oil revenues in a sustainable manner, so that spending does not rise and fall in line with the price of oil, would promote fiscal sustainability,” IMF executives said.
“So too would far-sighted budget planning and policies to diversify the economy.”
With strong central bank supervision, Saudi Arabia’s financial sector remains resilient. Systemic risks are low and increases in interest rates are expected to have only a limited impact on the Saudi economy amid high oil prices and strong liquidity.
Managing oil revenues in a sustainable manner, so that spending does not rise and fall in line with the price of oil, would promote fiscal sustainability
International Monetary Fund
Banks remain liquid, well capitalised and their profitability — which declined during the pandemic — rebounded strongly in 2021 as net interest margins recovered, the fund said.
Credit to the private sector by Saudi financial institutions grew 15.4 per cent in 2021, mainly driven by mortgages and SME lending, it said.
The kingdom, Opec’s biggest oil producer, is overhauling its economy to cut its reliance on sale of hydrocarbons to generate revenue. Expanding the country’s industrial base, strengthening its financial sector and attracting foreign direct investment across sectors are among the main pillars of the overarching Vision 2030 programme.
Labour market reforms, boosting employment and ease of doing business are among the other priorities for Riyadh.
Over the medium term, growth is expected to accelerate as the kingdom’s National Investment Strategy, supported by the Public Investment Fund’s “interventions” into the local economy yield dividends, the fund said.
“The authorities’ continued implementation of Vision 2030 policies will help diversify and liberalise the economy and thus pave the way to more stable growth,” Mr Mati and Ms Rehman said.
“Saudi Arabia is taking impressive steps to improve the business environment, attract foreign investment and create private-sector employment.”
Small%20Things%20Like%20These
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Tim%20Mielants%3Cbr%3ECast%3A%20Cillian%20Murphy%2C%20Emily%20Watson%2C%20Eileen%20Walsh%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tributes from the UAE's personal finance community
• Sebastien Aguilar, who heads SimplyFI.org, a non-profit community where people learn to invest Bogleheads’ style
“It is thanks to Jack Bogle’s work that this community exists and thanks to his work that many investors now get the full benefits of long term, buy and hold stock market investing.
Compared to the industry, investing using the common sense approach of a Boglehead saves a lot in costs and guarantees higher returns than the average actively managed fund over the long term.
From a personal perspective, learning how to invest using Bogle’s approach was a turning point in my life. I quickly realised there was no point chasing returns and paying expensive advisers or platforms. Once money is taken care off, you can work on what truly matters, such as family, relationships or other projects. I owe Jack Bogle for that.”
• Sam Instone, director of financial advisory firm AES International
"Thought to have saved investors over a trillion dollars, Jack Bogle’s ideas truly changed the way the world invests. Shaped by his own personal experiences, his philosophy and basic rules for investors challenged the status quo of a self-interested global industry and eventually prevailed. Loathed by many big companies and commission-driven salespeople, he has transformed the way well-informed investors and professional advisers make decisions."
• Demos Kyprianou, a board member of SimplyFI.org
"Jack Bogle for me was a rebel, a revolutionary who changed the industry and gave the little guy like me, a chance. He was also a mentor who inspired me to take the leap and take control of my own finances."
• Steve Cronin, founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com
"Obsessed with reducing fees, Jack Bogle structured Vanguard to be owned by its clients – that way the priority would be fee minimisation for clients rather than profit maximisation for the company.
His real gift to us has been the ability to invest in the stock market (buy and hold for the long term) rather than be forced to speculate (try to make profits in the shorter term) or even worse have others speculate on our behalf.
Bogle has given countless investors the ability to get on with their life while growing their wealth in the background as fast as possible. The Financial Independence movement would barely exist without this."
• Zach Holz, who blogs about financial independence at The Happiest Teacher
"Jack Bogle was one of the greatest forces for wealth democratisation the world has ever seen. He allowed people a way to be free from the parasitical "financial advisers" whose only real concern are the fat fees they get from selling you over-complicated "products" that have caused millions of people all around the world real harm.”
• Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.org
"In an industry that’s synonymous with greed, Jack Bogle was a lone wolf, swimming against the tide. When others were incentivised to enrich themselves, he stood by the ‘fiduciary’ standard – something that is badly needed in the financial industry of the UAE."
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The years Ramadan fell in May
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Full list of brands available for Instagram Checkout
Adidas @adidaswomen
Anastasia Beverly Hills @anastasiabeverlyhills
Balmain @balmain
Burberry @burberry
ColourPop @colourpopcosmetics
Dior @dior
H&M @hm
Huda Beauty @hudabeautyshop
KKW @kkwbeauty
Kylie Cosmetics @kyliecosmetics
MAC Cosmetics @maccosmetics
Michael Kors @michaelkors
NARS @narsissist
Nike @niketraining & @nikewomen
NYX Cosmetics @nyxcosmetics
Oscar de la Renta @oscardelarenta
Ouai Hair @theouai
Outdoor Voices @outdoorvoices
Prada @prada
Revolve @revolve
Uniqlo @uniqlo
Warby Parker @warbyparker
Zara @zara
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Brief scoreline:
Wales 1
James 5'
Slovakia 0
Man of the Match: Dan James (Wales)
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 575bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh554,000
On sale: now
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final, second leg (first-leg score)
Porto (0) v Liverpool (2), Wednesday, 11pm UAE
Match is on BeIN Sports
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
Types of policy
Term life insurance: this is the cheapest and most-popular form of life cover. You pay a regular monthly premium for a pre-agreed period, typically anything between five and 25 years, or possibly longer. If you die within that time, the policy will pay a cash lump sum, which is typically tax-free even outside the UAE. If you die after the policy ends, you do not get anything in return. There is no cash-in value at any time. Once you stop paying premiums, cover stops.
Whole-of-life insurance: as its name suggests, this type of life cover is designed to run for the rest of your life. You pay regular monthly premiums and in return, get a guaranteed cash lump sum whenever you die. As a result, premiums are typically much higher than one term life insurance, although they do not usually increase with age. In some cases, you have to keep up premiums for as long as you live, although there may be a cut-off period, say, at age 80 but it can go as high as 95. There are penalties if you don’t last the course and you may get a lot less than you paid in.
Critical illness cover: this pays a cash lump sum if you suffer from a serious illness such as cancer, heart disease or stroke. Some policies cover as many as 50 different illnesses, although cancer triggers by far the most claims. The payout is designed to cover major financial responsibilities such as a mortgage or children’s education fees if you fall ill and are unable to work. It is cost effective to combine it with life insurance, with the policy paying out once if you either die or suffer a serious illness.
Income protection: this pays a replacement income if you fall ill and are unable to continue working. On the best policies, this will continue either until you recover, or reach retirement age. Unlike critical illness cover, policies will typically pay out for stress and musculoskeletal problems such as back trouble.
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6-cylinder%2C%204.8-litre%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E280%20brake%20horsepower%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E451Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh153%2C00%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
The biog
Family: wife, four children, 11 grandchildren, 16 great-grandchildren
Reads: Newspapers, historical, religious books and biographies
Education: High school in Thatta, a city now in Pakistan
Regrets: Not completing college in Karachi when universities were shut down following protests by freedom fighters for the British to quit India
Happiness: Work on creative ideas, you will also need ideals to make people happy
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20EduPloyment%3Cbr%3EDate%20started%3A%20March%202020%3Cbr%3ECo-Founders%3A%20Mazen%20Omair%20and%20Rana%20Batterjee%3Cbr%3EBase%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Recruitment%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2030%20employees%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20Pre-Seed%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Angel%20investors%20(investment%20amount%20undisclosed)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
