Inflation in the Emirates is "close to zero", according to the London-based consultancy Capital Economics. Silvia Razgova / The National
Inflation in the Emirates is "close to zero", according to the London-based consultancy Capital Economics. Silvia Razgova / The National

Curious case of why inflation is not roaring or even rising at all



Inflation is regarded as one of the deadliest of economic sins, so recent statistics that show its levels falling substantially in all GCC countries, and the Emirates in particular, should be welcomed.

But there is something quite curious about the most recent set of figures that suggests the UAE economy could be on the cusp of benign structural changes.

Inflation in the Emirates is "close to zero", according to a new piece of research from the London-based consultancy Capital Economics. The rate is low in most of the GCC states; Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, for example, show the rise in core consumer prices at between 2 and 4 per cent.

But the UAE stands out. For the past two years, consumer price rises have been mostly in negative territory or banging against the zero line. Inflation poked its way briefly up in the third quarter, but was still less than 1 per cent.

Official figures from the UAE Ministry of Economy showed the consumer price index rising by 0.6 per cent last year, while the IMF was slightly higher at 0.98 per cent, but the margin was so small as to be negligible. All are agreed that prices seem virtually to have stopped rising.

Most would say that is a good thing, especially in the period after a financial crisis and recession that has often been compared with the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Back then, in a development that seems to have been seared into the world's collective economic memory, hyperinflation wrought havoc for years, especially in Europe. To have avoided that fate is no bad thing.

Working out exactly why inflation has not taken off is perplexing. The situation in the Arabian Gulf was complicated by the reaction of governments to the Arab Spring. Some poured billions of dollars into their domestic economies in a bid to resolve social problems that might spark violent protest.

This huge fiscal stimulus can only be regarded as inflationary, especially in an era of historically high energy prices, but it did not produce any significant "spike" in consumer prices.

Some Gulf policymakers have revisited the strategy of fiscal stimulus in response to weakness in the global economy. The Saudi budget for 2013, for example, is 20 per cent up on the previous year.

The increase in federal UAE and individual emirates' budgets are less than the Saudi increase, but still significantly higher.

In the background are the billions of dollars worth of mega-projects recently announced in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai. It is hard to see these as anything other than inflationary. The pressure for serious price rises further down the line is being stoked.

Capital Economics explains the lack of inflation so far as being down to several factors. There are still relatively high unemployment rates in GCC countries, which implies these economies are not bumping up against capacity constraints; and headline price increases in the region are often driven by food and energy prices, which are the subject of global forces, rather than underlying domestic economic considerations.

In the UAE, the consultancy says, another reason is weak domestic demand, and falling private-sector credit.

Maybe that's how an economist sees it, but any resident who has recently been to Dubai Mall on a Friday afternoon, or received yet another invitation from a bank to take out a new credit card or loan, will find it hard to agree.

Perhaps in Saudi Arabia the danger of an "overheating" economy, while still a threat, has diminished to a large degree.

In the UAE, from the official figures, the outlook seems somewhat different.

High levels of economic activity (as evidenced by government spending plans and consumer spending activity), coupled with near-zero inflation, imply a real and permanent shift in the earning power and capital accumulation capability of individuals.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

Company Profile

Company name: Hoopla
Date started: March 2023
Founder: Jacqueline Perrottet
Based: Dubai
Number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Investment required: $500,000

Fight card

1. Featherweight 66kg: Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)

2. Lightweight 70kg: Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)

3. Welterweight 77kg:Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)

4. Lightweight 70kg: Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)

5. Featherweight 66kg: Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)

6. Catchweight 85kg: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)

7. Featherweight 66kg: Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)

8. Catchweight 73kg: Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Ahmed Abdelraouf of Egypt (EGY)

9.  Featherweight 66kg: Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)

10. Catchweight 90kg: Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)

The Specs

Engine: 3.6-litre twin turbocharged V6
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 472hp
Torque: 603Nm
Price: from Dh290,000 ($78,9500)
On sale: now

Babumoshai Bandookbaaz

Director: Kushan Nandy

Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami

Three stars

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg

Bayern Munich 1
Kimmich (27')

Real Madrid 2
Marcelo (43'), Asensio (56')

Community Shield info

Where, when and at what time Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday at 5pm (UAE time)

Arsenal line up (3-4-2-1) Petr Cech; Rob Holding, Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal; Hector Bellerin, Mohamed Elneny, Granit Xhaka, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; Alex Iwobi, Danny Welbeck; Alexandre Lacazette

Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger

Chelsea line up (3-4-2-1) Thibaut Courtois; Cesar Azpilicueta, David Luiz, Gary Cahill; Victor Moses, Cesc Fabregas, N'Golo Kante, Marcos Alonso; Willian, Pedro; Michy Batshuayi

Chelsea manager Antonio Conte

Referee Bobby Madley

THE DETAILS

Kaala

Dir: Pa. Ranjith

Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar  

Rating: 1.5/5 

A QUIET PLACE

Starring: Lupita Nyong'o, Joseph Quinn, Djimon Hounsou

Director: Michael Sarnoski

Rating: 4/5

COMPANY PROFILE

Founder: Hani Abu Ghazaleh
Based: Abu Dhabi, with an office in Montreal
Founded: 2018
Sector: Virtual Reality
Investment raised: $1.2 million, and nearing close of $5 million new funding round
Number of employees: 12

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Haltia.ai
Started: 2023
Co-founders: Arto Bendiken and Talal Thabet
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: AI
Number of employees: 41
Funding: About $1.7 million
Investors: Self, family and friends

The specs

Engine: Dual permanently excited synchronous motors
Power: 516hp or 400Kw
Torque: 858Nm
Transmission: Single speed auto
Range: 485km
Price: From Dh699,000

Company Profile

Company name: Big Farm Brothers

Started: September 2020

Founders: Vishal Mahajan and Navneet Kaur

Based: Dubai Investment Park 1

Industry: food and agriculture

Initial investment: $205,000

Current staff: eight to 10

Future plan: to expand to other GCC markets

Company profile

Company name: Leap
Started: March 2021
Founders: Ziad Toqan and Jamil Khammu
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Funds raised: Undisclosed
Current number of staff: Seven

The biog

Name: Fareed Lafta

Age: 40

From: Baghdad, Iraq

Mission: Promote world peace

Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi

Role models: His parents 

The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ

Price, base: Dh1,731,672

Engine: 6.5-litre V12

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm

Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm

Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km

CABINET OF CURIOSITIES EPISODE 1: LOT 36

Director: Guillermo del Toro
Stars: Tim Blake Nelson, Sebastian Roche, Elpidia Carrillo
Rating: 4/5