Inflation in the Emirates is "close to zero", according to the London-based consultancy Capital Economics. Silvia Razgova / The National
Inflation in the Emirates is "close to zero", according to the London-based consultancy Capital Economics. Silvia Razgova / The National

Curious case of why inflation is not roaring or even rising at all



Inflation is regarded as one of the deadliest of economic sins, so recent statistics that show its levels falling substantially in all GCC countries, and the Emirates in particular, should be welcomed.

But there is something quite curious about the most recent set of figures that suggests the UAE economy could be on the cusp of benign structural changes.

Inflation in the Emirates is "close to zero", according to a new piece of research from the London-based consultancy Capital Economics. The rate is low in most of the GCC states; Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, for example, show the rise in core consumer prices at between 2 and 4 per cent.

But the UAE stands out. For the past two years, consumer price rises have been mostly in negative territory or banging against the zero line. Inflation poked its way briefly up in the third quarter, but was still less than 1 per cent.

Official figures from the UAE Ministry of Economy showed the consumer price index rising by 0.6 per cent last year, while the IMF was slightly higher at 0.98 per cent, but the margin was so small as to be negligible. All are agreed that prices seem virtually to have stopped rising.

Most would say that is a good thing, especially in the period after a financial crisis and recession that has often been compared with the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Back then, in a development that seems to have been seared into the world's collective economic memory, hyperinflation wrought havoc for years, especially in Europe. To have avoided that fate is no bad thing.

Working out exactly why inflation has not taken off is perplexing. The situation in the Arabian Gulf was complicated by the reaction of governments to the Arab Spring. Some poured billions of dollars into their domestic economies in a bid to resolve social problems that might spark violent protest.

This huge fiscal stimulus can only be regarded as inflationary, especially in an era of historically high energy prices, but it did not produce any significant "spike" in consumer prices.

Some Gulf policymakers have revisited the strategy of fiscal stimulus in response to weakness in the global economy. The Saudi budget for 2013, for example, is 20 per cent up on the previous year.

The increase in federal UAE and individual emirates' budgets are less than the Saudi increase, but still significantly higher.

In the background are the billions of dollars worth of mega-projects recently announced in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai. It is hard to see these as anything other than inflationary. The pressure for serious price rises further down the line is being stoked.

Capital Economics explains the lack of inflation so far as being down to several factors. There are still relatively high unemployment rates in GCC countries, which implies these economies are not bumping up against capacity constraints; and headline price increases in the region are often driven by food and energy prices, which are the subject of global forces, rather than underlying domestic economic considerations.

In the UAE, the consultancy says, another reason is weak domestic demand, and falling private-sector credit.

Maybe that's how an economist sees it, but any resident who has recently been to Dubai Mall on a Friday afternoon, or received yet another invitation from a bank to take out a new credit card or loan, will find it hard to agree.

Perhaps in Saudi Arabia the danger of an "overheating" economy, while still a threat, has diminished to a large degree.

In the UAE, from the official figures, the outlook seems somewhat different.

High levels of economic activity (as evidenced by government spending plans and consumer spending activity), coupled with near-zero inflation, imply a real and permanent shift in the earning power and capital accumulation capability of individuals.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

Red Joan

Director: Trevor Nunn

Starring: Judi Dench, Sophie Cookson, Tereza Srbova

Rating: 3/5 stars

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

Racecard
%3Cp%3E1.45pm%3A%20Bin%20Dasmal%20Contracting%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh50%2C000%20(Dirt)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E2.15pm%3A%20Al%20Shafar%20Investment%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh60%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E2.45pm%3A%202023%20Cup%20by%20Emirates%20sprint%20series%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh84%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E3.15pm%3A%20HIVE%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh68%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E3.45pm%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Mile%20Prep%20by%20Shadwell%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(TB)%20Dh100%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E4.15pm%3A%20JARC%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh60%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E4.45pm%3A%20Deira%20Cup%20by%20Emirates%20Sprint%20series%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh76%2C000%20(D)%201%2C950m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cryopreservation: A timeline
  1. Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
  2. Ovarian tissue surgically removed
  3. Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
  4. Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
  5. Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months

Leap of Faith

Michael J Mazarr

Public Affairs

Dh67
 

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Long read

Mageed Yahia, director of WFP in UAE: Coronavirus knows no borders, and neither should the response

Monster

Directed by: Anthony Mandler

Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington 

3/5

 

Engine: 3.5-litre V6

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 290hp

Torque: 340Nm

Price: Dh155,800

On sale: now

Other workplace saving schemes
  • The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
  • Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
  • National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
  • In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
  • Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5

What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
 
  • Grade 9 = above an A*
  • Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
  • Grade 7 = grade A
  • Grade 6 = just above a grade B
  • Grade 5 = between grades B and C
  • Grade 4 = grade C
  • Grade 3 = between grades D and E
  • Grade 2 = between grades E and F
  • Grade 1 = between grades F and G

Graduated from the American University of Sharjah

She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters

Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks

Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding

 

MATCH INFO

Euro 2020 qualifier

Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')

Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)

The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Quick%20facts
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStorstockholms%20Lokaltrafik%20(SL)%20offers%20free%20guided%20tours%20of%20art%20in%20the%20metro%20and%20at%20the%20stations%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20tours%20are%20free%20of%20charge%3B%20all%20you%20need%20is%20a%20valid%20SL%20ticket%2C%20for%20which%20a%20single%20journey%20(valid%20for%2075%20minutes)%20costs%2039%20Swedish%20krone%20(%243.75)%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETravel%20cards%20for%20unlimited%20journeys%20are%20priced%20at%20165%20Swedish%20krone%20for%2024%20hours%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAvoid%20rush%20hour%20%E2%80%93%20between%209.30%20am%20and%204.30%20pm%20%E2%80%93%20to%20explore%20the%20artwork%20at%20leisure%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Ticket prices
  • Golden circle - Dh995
  • Floor Standing - Dh495
  • Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
  • Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
  • Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
  • Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
  • Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
  • Upper Bowl standard - Dh295