Relations between the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) and the central government of Iraq have been at an all-time low since the KRG’s independence referendum in September 2017.
The central government imposed strict punishment measures in addition to taking control of the Kirkuk oilfields from KRG. The government of the Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi imposed a flight ban over the Kurdistan region, so no international flights can fly directly to KRG’s international airports in Erbil and Sulimaniyah. The relations between both capitals have been strained since 2014 over budget and oil issues, but the latest events turned the already bad relations even more sour.
But there is a possibility to not only save the relations between Erbil and Baghdad, but also to come to a long-term and sustainable agreement. The Iraqi election is scheduled for May later this year and the United States and the international community prefer to have Mr Al Abadi re-elected instead of the much more sectarian Nuri Al Maliki, a former Iraq prime minister who is seen as the most prominent among other runners for the top post. The US is also aware that for Iraq to not totally fall apart, any new government needs the backing of the Kurds.
Since the seizure of Kirkuk and its surrounding oilfields by the central government, crude production from Kirkuk has fallen from 450,000 barrels a day to around 150,000 barrels a day.
Despite the decline, in January the British energy major BP signed a memorandum of understanding with the Iraqi government to ramp up production to 750,000 barrels a day. The Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar Al Luaibi even hinted that Baghdad would build a separate pipeline that will bypass the KRG pipeline.
But there are several obstacles that would be very difficult to make this feasible. First of all, if Baghdad were to build a separate pipeline it would take a minimum of two years to complete. Secondly, Kirkuk is a disputed territory and contested by both the central government and the KRG so even if the central government were to bypass the KRG, it would still be a political flashpoint for years to come without some form of revenue sharing deal. It is neither in the interest of Baghdad, the KRG or British petroleum to have the majority of Kirkuk’s production stranded. But there is an option for a revenue sharing deal that would be a win-win for both Baghdad and Erbil and which would also please the US who would prefer to see Mr Al Abadi re-elected with the support of the Kurds.
This option would require a political deal between the KRG and Mr Al Abadi prior to the Iraqi elections. That would also need concessions from both parties. With the loss of Kirkuk and half of the revenues it generated, KRG currently controls around 350,000 bpd of crude production, including the Khurmala dome concession which was awarded to the Kurdistan focused firm KAR group in 2008 by the Iraqi ministry of oil. Khurmala is part of the Kirkuk formation but lies outside Kirkuk Governorate.
KRG has been struggling to pay its public employees after Baghdad stopped paying it its share of the budget in 2014. Also, with the loss of Kirkuk fields' current 350,000 bpd output means there is not enough money to pay KRG civil servants. Furthermore KRG has stacked up billions of dollars in debts to Turkey, oil trading houses and international oil companies. So what can be done to end this stalemate?
_____________
Read more:
BP signs agreement with Baghdad to boost Kirkuk production capacity
Iraq PM says Kurds face budget cuts like everyone else
Iraq lifts sanctions on Kurdish banks
_____________
There is an option that would benefit both sides: to restart crude flow from Kirkuk and export it through the existing KRG-Ceyhan pipeline selling the oil via Iraq’s state oil marketing group SOMO. The revenue Iraq would generate from the Kirkuk export could then be used to pay KRG's civil servants.
Iraq’s North Oil Company, which operates the fields in Kirkuk, could ramp up production immediately to 450,000 bpd by using the existing pipeline to Ceyhan. Furthermore the central government and the KRG could share the crude from Khurmala; Baghdad could export half of Khurmala's current production of 105,000 bpd to Ceyhan pushing total Iraqi northern exports to 500,000 bpd. The KRG, on the other hand, could use the rest of the crude from Khurmala to feed its refineries.
Kurdistan based KAR could still operate Khurmala as per the agreement with the Iraqi oil ministry from 2008 but the crude would be divided between the central government and the KRG.
KRG would still produce and sell the oil from the fields in the Kurdistan region independently, and thus still be committed to repaying back its debts and pay international oil companies operating in Kurdistan region - thereby freeing the central government of the debts KRG has picked up over the past couple of years.
Both Baghdad and KRG would get to utilise the Kurdistan pipeline and that would drive costs of the pipeline lower. It would also give the central government and KRG leverage against Turkey, especially when it comes to water, river and dam issues. A sustainable deal with the central government would de-risk the Kurdistan oil industry and international oil companies would likely increase their investments in the industry, enabling KRG to ramp up production from fields under its control, get higher prices for its oil and better leverage with its suppliers. It would also provide cash to pay KRG salaries.
In October, Rosneft bought 60 per cent of Kurdistan’s crude pipeline and committed to upgrade the pipelines capacity to 1 million barrels a day from about 350,000 now. BP owns 20 per cent in Rosneft, so a deal between KRG and the central government would be in the interest of both oil majors as well. It would also be in the interest of the US to have both its allies cooperate in the post-ISIL era.
Any deal would require painful concessions and bold steps by both parties but it would stabilise a country that has gone through some extremely tough years.
Alan Mohtadi is head of T&S Consulting Energy and security, which specialises in in advising companies working in Kurdistan oil and gas sector
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE LIGHT
Director: Tom Tykwer
Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger
Rating: 3/5
A Long Way Home by Peter Carey
Faber & Faber
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Company%20Profile
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One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
How to vote
Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.
They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi
Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday)
if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Seoul from Dh3,775 return, including taxes
The package
Ski Safari offers a seven-night ski package to Korea, including five nights at the Dragon Valley Hotel in Yongpyong and two nights at Seoul CenterMark hotel, from £720 (Dh3,488) per person, including transfers, based on two travelling in January
The info
Visit www.gokorea.co.uk
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
WHAT%20MACRO%20FACTORS%20ARE%20IMPACTING%20META%20TECH%20MARKETS%3F
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Looming%20global%20slowdown%20and%20recession%20in%20key%20economies%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Russia-Ukraine%20war%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Interest%20rate%20hikes%20and%20the%20rising%20cost%20of%20debt%20servicing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Oil%20price%20volatility%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Persisting%20inflationary%20pressures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Exchange%20rate%20fluctuations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shortage%20of%20labour%2Fskills%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20A%20resurgence%20of%20Covid%3F%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GREATEST ROYAL RUMBLE CARD
The line-up as it stands for the Greatest Royal Rumble in Saudi Arabia on April 27
50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship
Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns
Casket match
The Undertaker v Rusev
Intercontinental Championship
Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
SmackDown Tag Team Championship
The Bludgeon Brothers v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship
Sheamus and Cesaro v Bray Wyatt and Matt Hardy
United States Championship
Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
Singles match
Triple H v John Cena
To be confirmed
AJ Styles will defend his WWE World Heavyweight title and Cedric Alexander his Cruiserweight Championship, but matches have yet to be announced
MATCH INFO
Newcastle United 2 (Willems 25', Shelvey 88')
Manchester City 2 (Sterling 22', De Bruyne 82')
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
The specs: 2019 GMC Yukon Denali
Price, base: Dh306,500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 621Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Mane 51', Salah 53'
Chelsea 0
Man of the Match: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
French Touch
Carla Bruni
(Verve)
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now