A dead heat in opinion polls ahead of Thursday’s EU membership referendum would favour the UK Remain camp, according to the founder of YouGov.
European markets rallied on Monday morning while the pound surged as investors changed their view on the likely outcome of the referendum to favour the Remain camp.
“At the moment we are looking at a dead heat in terms of what people say they are going to do next,” said Stephan Shakespeare, the founder and chief executive of YouGov, which has been polling public opinion ahead of the vote. “However most people at YouGov, including me, take the view that in most previous referendums across the world, but in particular the Scottish one, which is a model for us, there is a reversion to status quo in the last bit of the campaign.
“Going into the final straight, if it’s a dead heat or thereabouts we would expect to end towards Remain. But that is pure speculation, there’s no hard evidence for that. There is only looking at previous experience,” said Mr Shakespeare in an interview in Dubai.
The latest Financial Times poll of polls suggest the Remain and Leave camps both have support of 44 per cent.
Campaigning in the referendum resumed on Sunday after both camps cancelled events as a mark of respect for the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox last week. The mother of two died after being attacked in her constituency on Thursday.
Mr Shakespeare said polls conducted since then did not suggest that the murder had an immediate effect on the way people said they would vote.
“We have taken a couple of polls after that tragic event and we don’t see that as having an immediate effect,” he said. “The swing back to Remain had been coming back before the tragic murder.”
The outcome of the referendum will affect global financial markets and has driven volatility in European stocks and currencies in recent weeks.
The YouGov chief, who is also polling public opinion in the United States ahead of presidential elections there, said there were parallels to be drawn among voters in both countries.
“I think there is an important parallel,” he said. “Of course we can’t take these things too far, but in both cases there is a challenger, in [Donald] Trump or the Brexiteers if you like, to establishment politics. And they are attracting support from people who feel they have been left out. The ones who perhaps feel they have not advanced as much economically as the rest of society, the ones who feel they have less of a voice and who look to outsiders like Trump and [Nigel] Farage.
“So yes, those buttons are being pressed by the same type of politics if you like.”
The 2014 Scottish independence referendum, where support for leaving the UK dropped off ahead of the vote, may be one indication of how this week’s referendum will play out, according to Mr Shakespeare.
“If I was putting money on it I would also put money on Remain because I think in the last minute, like Scotland, there will be a bit of a drift back towards Remain.”
scronin@thenational.ae
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