The Farnborough International Airshow is mostly about the fast and the furious, as well as the big, beautiful and noisy.
The soaring combat aircraft such as the F-16s and Typhoons are always crowd pleasers, and in years gone by the sheer size of aircraft such as the Airbus A380 taking to skies have left audiences mesmerised.
But this year, there has been much excitement around the small, quieter and sustainable end of the industry, as makers of electric take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) had their wares on display.
Often referred to as air taxis, these compact aircraft, usually capable of carrying no more than four passengers, are predicted to flock to many of the world's cities in the next decade.
In this fledgling industry, the overwhelming majority of eVTOLs are propeller driven, where rotas set on fixed wings can pivot, enabling the aircraft to take off and land like a helicopter and fly like a plane.
Because they are powered by electric batteries there are no emissions, but they are limited in terms of range and flying time.
However, this makes them perfect for what could be a wind of change that is blowing through urban flying, with predictions that one day passengers will be able to catch one for the same price as an Uber.
The sector has excited investors and air taxi makers at this year's Farnborough Airshow were not short of enthusiasm or deals.
Among those making announcements this week were Germany's Lilium, Crisalion of Spain and the UK's Vertical Aerospace.
Boeing-owned Wisk Aero has its full-size prototype on display, as did Joby, while Embraer was keen to show off its Eve prototype, which it displayed in Brazil this month.
On Thursday, Dubai-based operator Air Chateau announced it had pre-ordered 10 eVTOLs from Crisalion, which would support the development of air taxi services in the UAE.
The 10 orders for its Integrity aircraft brings Crisalion's order book to 125 in less than a year.
“Dubai is one of our core markets,” Oscar Lara, chief operating officer at Crisalion, told The National.
“We want to keep on expanding our presence in the region.
“In Dubai, it’s a very open city, a very open region – they are really willing to take on these new technologies.”
The eVTOL market is at an interesting juncture. Billions of dollars have been invested on a handful of prototypes to demonstrate that the technology is feasible and investable.
Vertical Aerospace's prototype, VX4, is undergoing tests at its base in the Cotswolds, in the UK.
“We are excited to be working towards piloted flight with this aircraft prototype, which would make us one of only a few eVTOL manufacturers in the world to achieve this feat," Michael Cervenka, the company's chief strategy officer and chief technology officer, told The National.
“And we are making good progress towards certification, which will ultimately lead to seeing the VX4 in UK skies as well as around the world.”
Eve, which is owned by the Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer, is hoping to have its prototype flying taxi tested and certified by the end of next year.
But Eve's chief executive, Johann Bordais, realises that the path to flight could be full of turbulence.
"Challenges exist," Mr Bordais said. "It's not something trivial.
"We are at the limits of technology and aeronautics, and this moment of testing is fundamental."
Likewise, Wisk's chief executive Brian Yutko said the company was testing its eVTOL and hoping to "fly around the end of this year".
Wisk is slightly different from its air taxi peers, though, in that its aircraft are designed for pilotless, autonomous flight.
Some industry watchers are more sceptical of this approach. The consultancy firm Bain contends that fully autonomous flight is at least about 15 years away and the margins could be tighter than for piloted aircraft.
"Maximising passenger occupancy and avoiding return trips with empty aircraft will be crucial for operator profitability," said Mattia Celli, a partner with Bain and Company in Rome.
Safety, certification and regulators
While ideas and designs for air taxis are plentiful, for those few eVTOL makers that have a working prototype, certification is the next step.
That involves convincing aviation authorities around the world that the aircraft is safe and robust – and regulators are, quite rightly, a tough bunch to please.
“We have 16 rotas. In a normal helicopter you just have one engine," Mr Lara told The National.
"So, there’s much more redundancy in case of a failure. This is important when you’re flying over a city. These things should not fall down.
“In addition, the noise that it makes is much lower than a helicopter and noise levels are one of the driving factors in letting helicopters fly over cities. There are cities that restrict helicopter flights due to the noise.”
Air taxi makers say eVTOLs are better, more efficient and cheaper to maintain than helicopters, and over the coming decades will replace them as the workhorses of the skies in urban areas.
Despite this, it is still too early to wave goodbye to the helicopter because they have ranges that can beat air taxis and their hovering ability is better, especially with heavier loads.
As such, they are likely to be used by militaries, emergency services and parts of the construction industry for many years to come.
Fan jets not props
Unique among the eVTOL makers is Lilium, a German company that, instead of employing a number of rotas with propellers, uses 30 turbofan jet engines in its design.
Lilium's chief executive, Klaus Roewe, told The National the aircraft is "much more silent" and "much more comfortable" than a commercial helicopter.
“It’s much safer – we have 30 engines. So, we can lose a couple of them due to things like bird-strike and so on. If you lose one helicopter blade, that’s it."
Like all the eVTOL makers at Farnborough Mr Roewe was quick to emphasise the safety aspects of the aircraft.
"We design for so-called 10 to the minus nine, which means we have to demonstrate that you’ll have fewer than one accident in one billion flight hours and that you’re not going to achieve that with a rota-driven aircraft," he told The National.
"So, it’s much safer than driving in a car. If you drive the same distance in a car as travelling in a Lilium aircraft your likelihood of dying in that car is between 100 and 1,000 times higher.”
However, Lilium is not looking to become a flying city taxi. It believes the best market its aircraft could serve, because it has a longer range than propeller-driven eVTOLs, is between regional cities.
"We want to connect cities and there are many, many places in the world where you can do that," Mr Roewe said.
"Florida, for example. When you want to go from Tampa to Orlando, it’s a desperate undertaking by car.
"It’s not far, but it’s a three-hour drive. With a Lilium jet you would do it in 30 minutes.”
Air taxis for the masses
Many of the air taxi makers' executives were keen to point out the eventual costs to passengers and that an air taxi trip will one day be similar to land taxis.
"Already, without needing lots of fancy new technology, the potential is for this aircraft to be about the same cost as hiring an Uber," Mr Cervenka said.
Given the early market supply challenges it would take some time before hailing an air taxi was as cheap and convenient as hailing an Uber.
But Mr Roewe said that once the market is fully established, prices have to come down.
“We are shooting for €2 per passenger kilometre," he said.
"This is a value proposition that many people can afford and will want to afford. In fact, it’s not much more than if you were to take an Uber.
"If you can reduce your travel time by 80 to 90 per cent for the same ticket price, plus the fun of flying, you will just go for it.”
Enthusiasm and doubt
Going for it certainly seems to be the industry's mantra at the moment.
A study by McKinsey last year showed 18,000 eVTOLs were on order, but with the added caveat that many of these are simply letters of intent or options to buy.
Nonetheless, Lilium was keen to promote its biggest deal so far, which it struck a week before the Farnborough Air Show, as Saudi airline Saudia agreed to buy up to 100 of its eVTOLs.
It also signed an agreement with Saudi certification authorities.
Lilium is also looking for a site to set up a factory in the US, which it hopes to have operational within five years.
The Farnborough Airshow was an opportunity for eVTOL makers to attract investors, who have swayed from enthusiasm to ambivalence to cynicism in recent years.
Potential profitability is weighed against regulatory requirements and the pace of development is measured against the time it takes to get passenger number one on board.
As such, shares in the eVTOLs that lack a big brother such as Embraer or Boeing are often volatile.
Lilium's shares have fallen 21.7 per cent this year, while its industry peers Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation are down 25.7 per cent and up 0.45 per cent, respectively.
While most air taxi makers spoke optimistically of the near future, others agreed the industry will at some point shake down and the many will become the few.
“I think we are going to see a few players in the end succeeding," Mr Lara said.
"Of course, the industry cannot sustain hundreds of players. It’s likely that we will see consolidation, but for us we’re are ready for the evolution of the industry wherever it goes."
For Mr Roewe, consolidation within the air taxi industry is a given, but he feels Lilium, with its fanjets, is somewhat unexposed to the coming market massacre.
“We are in a very good position because our value proposition is completely different, so we are much less affected by any kind of competition," he said.
"The others all look the same and they don’t really differentiate."
By the time the next Farnborough Airshow comes around in two years, the air taxi landscape could look very different.
Some will have been certified and a few may be starting to run embryonic services. Others may have gone to the wall having been abandoned by impatient investors.
But the signs of something new in city skies may just start to become apparent. Watch this space.
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Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
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Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
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Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
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6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
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Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
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A new relationship with the old country
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed
