Bahrain's flag carrier Gulf Air is considering refreshing its fleet with new aircraft as it revamps its network to serve key financial hubs and premier leisure spots in Europe and Asia amid a supply backlog for new jets.
While the airline will be taking delivery of Airbus narrow-bodies and Boeing wide-bodies over the next three years, its fleet review is also taking into consideration the years-long record backlog at the plane makers and production challenges facing them, Jeffrey Goh, chief executive of Gulf Air Group Holding, told The National.
“At this stage, the aircraft mix we have is appropriate … but we need to remain nimble as an organisation as we look to recalibrate our network, as we look to expansion opportunities and what aircraft type or variant would be more appropriate for us,” he said on the sidelines of the Future Aviation Forum in Riyadh on Monday.
“So, we are in the process of re-looking at our fleet … from the perspective of renewal purposes, so, replacement aircraft, because if you're ordering from the factories there's a fairly long lead time … we have to plan ahead for the renewal.”
The airline currently operates Airbus A320 Neos and A321 Neos and the older classic variants, along with Boeing 787-9s, in its fleet of 41 jets.
“Because of certain destinations, we may want to consider the 787-8s or the 787-10s, for instance,” Mr Goh said.
A decision on the fleet review could potentially be made in the second half of this year, with flexibility to make aircraft acquisitions through direct orders with plane makers or leasing aircraft, he said.
The fleet review comes as the airline, which turns 75 next year, is in the early stages of a multi-year restructuring.
Since joining in January 2023, Mr Goh has focused on a two-pillar strategy to take the loss-making airline forward.
The first is improving customer experience with initiatives such as complimentary Wi-Fi onboard, upgrading its airport lounges, a review of its in-flight catering and an overhaul of its loyalty programme that will be announced by the beginning of 2025.
The second strategic pillar is re-assessing the airline's route network.
Network revamp
Gulf Air wants to boost its presence in key financial cities, such as Zurich and Tokyo, as well as premium leisure destinations, such as Spain, Mr Goh said. It is also seeking to increase frequencies to religious pilgrimage sites such as Madinah, Jeddah and Najaf.
The airline is “very focused and disciplined” about its network planning “because in the past perhaps a lack of discipline has allowed a lack of focus on what we need to be as an airline”, Mr Goh said.
“We have a task at the moment to recalibrate and rebalance our network … which will then redefine what kind of airline we want to be.”
The airline plans to target corporate travellers, tourists, pilgrims and workers.
Aviation supply chain troubles
Production issues and delivery delays at Boeing and Airbus have a “pretty severe” impact on the ability of airlines, including Gulf Air, to grow or even to maintain operations, Mr Goh said.
On top of that, problems at engine makers such as Pratt & Whitney have forced airlines, including the Bahraini carrier, to ground some of their aircraft as a result of a shortage in engine spare parts.
“In as much as airframe manufacturers are driving more sales of aircraft, reliability becomes an issue,” Mr Goh said.
“It's very ironic if you end up buying an aircraft that sits on the ground. Whatever plans you have in terms of maintaining your current network or developing growth in your network, it isn't going to be served by aircraft that are sitting on the ground.”
The aviation industry has been hobbled on several fronts by supply chain constraints lingering since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Manufacturing woes at Boeing and defects in Pratt & Whitney engines are limiting the availability of aircraft, hampering airlines' ability to meet strong travel demand.
Gulf Air has held talks with jet engine makers Rolls-Royce and CFM (which is owned by GE and France's Safran) regarding its concerns.
“We cannot be more clear about our discontent,” Mr Goh said.
“They have been long on their promise and short in their delivery.”
The supply chain problems have affected Gulf Air's growth plans as it had to delay increasing frequencies on certain routes, he said.
2024 outlook
Gulf Air expects to carry 5.5 million to 6 million passengers this year, slightly higher than the 5.3 million in 2023, Mr Goh said.
In the first quarter of 2024, passenger volumes grew 5 per cent year-on-year.
Gulf Air is “cautiously optimistic” about continued strong demand during the rest of the year, as the appetite for travel outpaces limited seat capacity, he said.
Bookings for London, Bangkok, Frankfurt have shown “good demand”, while forward bookings to China also look strong, after the airline announced new routes to Shanghai and Guangzhou starting from the end of May.
Gulf Air's load factor – a measure of filling available seats – stood at 78 per cent in the first quarter, and it aims to end the year at similar levels.
The airline has suspended its flights to Tel Aviv in the wake of the Israel-Gaza war, now in its eighth month, and “there's no question” that the conflict has affected Gulf Air and the travel and tourism industry in the Middle East, he said.
The carrier expects to narrow its loss this year, Mr Goh said, without providing further details.
It aims to break even by 2027, local media cited its chairman as saying in March.
Group plans
Gulf Air Group Holding is a conglomerate that includes Gulf Air, Bahrain Airport Company, BAC Jet Fuel Company and Gulf Aviation Academy. It also holds majority stakes in Bahrain Airport Services and Bahrain Duty Free.
While Gulf Air comprises about 75 per cent of the group's activities, plans are under way for the rest of the companies in the group portfolio.
The group is looking to export its aviation services to international customers to support Bahrain's economy and increase the kingdom's “brand equity” abroad.
It is seeking contracts to provide airport management, ground-handling, simulator training and catering services to aviation clients outside Bahrain.
“We're beginning to identify opportunities for internationalisation: Gulf Air is obviously an international flying billboard but … there is a good opportunity as a group with the strength that we have to export products and services and the brand of Bahrain,” Mr Goh said.
“You then have opportunities to invite and attract foreign direct investments because Bahrain becomes better known as a brand.”
As the airline marks its 75th anniversary next year, the timing is an opportunity to reflect on its history and on the airline it is shaping up to become, the executive said.
“Gulf Air is seeking a sustainable future … in the sense of a sustainable going concern as a business. That is the efforts going into the airline right now,” Mr Goh said.
Asked if the airline has plans to establish a low-cost arm, he said “there are no announcements to make”.
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These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
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KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN MARITIME DISPUTE
2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after nearly 30 years without an officially demarcated border. The UN establishes the Blue Line to act as the frontier.
2007: Lebanon and Cyprus define their respective exclusive economic zones to facilitate oil and gas exploration. Israel uses this to define its EEZ with Cyprus
2011: Lebanon disputes Israeli-proposed line and submits documents to UN showing different EEZ. Cyprus offers to mediate without much progress.
2018: Lebanon signs first offshore oil and gas licencing deal with consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.
2018-2019: US seeks to mediate between Israel and Lebanon to prevent clashes over oil and gas resources.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.