The rapprochement between the US and Iran represents a rare occasion when the US has decided to go against the wishes of Israel’s leadership. It also signals to Saudi Arabia, another of America’s regional allies, that it faces competition from Iran. Had the Saudis not already found common ground with Israel, America’s tilt towards Iran would have persuaded them to.
But they already had. The situations in Syria and Egypt, and, indeed, the Arab Spring all helped in that regard. Each represented a moment of US policy failure in the Middle East.
The partial US pullout from Afghanistan this year is likely to be extremely disruptive, so let us try to examine the impact it signals for US policy.
During the Cold War, India claimed a “non-aligned” status leaning towards the Soviet Bloc, while Pakistan was always pro-US. After the demise of the Soviet Union, India also competed for US interest. Afghanistan joined in after it was invaded. If the US had an ally who acquired the role of playing “point” for US policy within this mix, it was the Saudis.
Due to its wealth and its position as host of the most important holy sites in the Muslim world, Saudi Arabia acquired a particular importance for Afghanistan and Pakistan. The fact that it was also a key ally to the US only amplified that significance. Both countries received generous support from Saudi Arabia.
Iran, meantime, had become the “whipping boy” for the US-led West. India continued to have an independent Iran policy but Pakistan felt it could ill afford to alienate its two most generous supporters: the Americans and the Saudis.
Being predominantly Shia, a minority Muslim sect in most countries, Iran was highly concerned with the treatment of Shias by Sunnis in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
I have also written in the past explaining that the elections in Afghanistan were really a rejection of the Taliban and Hamid Karzai. Meantime the irresistible lure of cheap energy from Iranian gas and oil gave Pakistan pause for thought.
The more democratic order emerging in Pakistan and Afghanistan has begun to loosen the US imposed shackles. The US policy shift towards Iran liberates all these countries from the pressure exerted by the US and Saudi. Since the alliance is weaker, their pressure is weaker and the US is no longer pushing.
Pakistan is likely to take immediate advantage and reduce tensions with Tehran and attempt to rebuild trust. As a start, it will need to demonstrate to Tehran its tolerance of and security for the Shia community.
Having rejected the Taliban, Afghanistan is also going to attempt to rebuild its image of tolerance for Shias. While it is likely that Afghanistan will lean more on Pakistan for trade and commerce, it will have the sense to retain options.
China’s assumption of a role in Afghanistan is likely to sideline any possibility of Indian influence in Afghanistan. This should relieve those Pakistanis who looked askance at an Indian presence in Afghanistan.
The upshot of this decision, coupled with a reduced US presence and its offering China a role in Afghanistan’s future, is likely to usher in a more peaceful transitional period.
If Afghans across the Pashtun tribal and Afghan ethnic divide get together to chart their course, as seems likely from recent developments, it is probable that the next government will face a reducing threat from the Taliban. If this is so, Pakistan’s internal security situation is also likely to begin improving. There suddenly seems to be a dim light at the end of the tunnel for this entire region. One hopes it doesn’t get extinguished.
Brig Shaukat Qadir is a retired Pakistani infantry officer
