Turkey needs consensus even after elections

Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is en route to victory in Sunday's parliamentary elections. But however big his majority, he needs to remember that a constitution is not one man's plaything. Revisions to the basic law demand broad, open discussion leading to a measure of consensus.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, is cruising to easy re-election in Sunday's Grand National Assembly voting.

That's no surprise. Since he and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) took office in late 2002, life for Turkey's 79 million people has improved in many ways: GDP per capita has almost doubled; civil society is stronger; corruption - as measured by the perception of it - has declined; the status of the Kurdish minority is better; top military officers have lost immunity from prosecution; and government finances have become more stable.

But more than another term is at stake. Mr Erdogan is seeking - and may well find - the supermajority he needs to rewrite the constitution, with a referendum if he wins 330 of the 550 Assembly seats, or without one if he controls 367 seats. This alarms the AKP's critics both inside and outside Turkey, some of whom worry about the its roots as an Islamic party in a country that was founded on the principle of secularism.

Mr Erdogan is rolling to re-election in part because the opposition is weakly led, disorganised and gaffe-prone, as leaders of the right-wing Nationalist Action Party have fallen to a series of sex scandals in recent weeks. Whatever the truth of those allegations, the near-collapse of a credible opposition is cause for concern.

Beneath the public politics, however, other concerns lurk. The AKP has ostentatiously fought a twilight war with the so-called "deep state" cabal of secularist nationalists, generals and industrialists. While there have been four coups since 1960, the alleged plots and prosecutions in the last decade have been so murky as to only hint at deeper undercurrents. Mr Erdogan's party may dominate at the polls, but there are other layers of conflict hidden from public view.

And while Turkey has advanced human rights during its now-dormant effort to enter the European Union, more than 50 journalists languish in jail. Mr Erdogan has presided over a sharp decline in press freedom.

Regardless of its mandate, the AKP would be wise to seek broad consensus on changing the constitution. Mr Erdogan, who thoroughly dominates government, is said to be planning a strong presidency as in France, with himself in the job. Encouragingly, there is debate even within the AKP about the idea.

However big his majority, Mr Erdogan should realise that the basic law of the land should not be the plaything of any one leader or party. By definition, the constitution should represent a measure of consensus across the whole society.