Reports following the talks between Iran and the P5+1 in Vienna last week seem to indicate that a rapprochement is underway.
The five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany have reached a consensus on a framework agreement that would turn the page on Iran’s nuclear programme once and for all, while all pending issues are expected to be resolved by the end of July as agreed, said George Samaan, a columnist with the pan-Arab newspaper Al Hayat.
“Never has any of the meetings with Iran in the past decade been so serious and determined. The ambience, especially in Tehran and Washington, indicates that there will be no turning back from closing the dossier, which for years has been the focus of conflict and tensions in the region,” Samaan noted.
A number of factors combined to push stakeholders to find a conclusion to the nuclear issue, particularly the fact that none of the parties to the conflict, namely Iran, the US and the GCC member countries, wants to see another war in the Gulf region.
Hassan Rouhani’s Iran seems eager to rescue its failing economy, a result of stringent international sanctions and erratic political behaviour of the former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The Islamic Republic is keen to reclaim its position as an essential player in global economy while maintaining its political positions and strategic interests in Central Asia, the Middle East and the Caucasus.
The Obama administration, for its part, is keen to secure a grid of arrangements and agreements to guarantee the region’s security, hence, its own strategic interests – and those of its allies – as it shifts its attention to the Pacific and China.
Writing on the subject in the Lebanese daily Annahar, the columnist Sarkis Naoum relayed a conversation with an American researcher in which the latter said that the agreement with Iran had garnered support in many circles in the US. Nonetheless, some fear that lifting of sanctions would free Iran of its financial burdens and allow it to use the substantial new income to support terrorism in general, or Hizbollah and the Assad regime in Syria.
“New found funds might entice Iran to resume the implementation of its agenda, which had to be put on hold for lack of resources,” the writer said.
“However, many believe that President Obama is deliberately postponing the deal, in agreement with Tehran, until after the congressional elections in the fall to prevent his Republican opponents and the extreme right groups from using the deal against him and his party.”
In fact, a Republican victory at Congress wouldn’t be in Iran’s favour. To please their Israeli allies and the all-powerful Israeli lobby in Washington, a republican-dominated Congress would surely seek to impose additional sanctions on Tehran.
According to Reuters, US congressional legislators are infuriated by the news of a $20 billion deal that the Russians and Iranians are trying to seal to allow Russia to buy Iranian oil in exchange for Russian goods and military equipment. Outraged Congress members have reportedly threatened to block the decision to ease sanctions on Iran.
Russia is trying to complicate Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the West, suggested Abdulrahman Al Rashid in the London-based daily Asharq Al Awsat. It is part of Russia’s scheme to regain its status as a country capable of standing up to the West.
“All of Moscow’s positions regarding Syria and Iran suggest that it is trying to surround itself with a political bloc of supporters. What else could explain its move to buy out the Iranian position to sabotage the talks or to push it to impose more stringent demands in exchange for a nuclear deal with the Western bloc?” Al Rashid asked.
Vladimir Putin has embarked on a big adventure in highly competitive circumstances in his bid to revive his country’s glory. To do so, he would need to weaken the western position on more than one front. At the moment, Iran seems like an obvious choice for him.
rmakarem@thenational.ae
