The president of the United States is generally regarded as the most powerful person on Earth. But, as Barack Obama sets off on a six-day tour that will take him first to Europe and then to Saudi Arabia, he is not exactly cutting a formidable figure. In some respects he is already looking like a “lame duck”, as second-term US presidents are usually designated after the congressional midterm elections, which are due in early November.
A presidency that, for the people of this region, started with great and impossible hope began to falter almost as soon as Mr Obama uttered the final words of his landmark “new beginning” speech in June 2009. But perhaps that is to the President’s advantage. His first-term was blighted, as far as the Middle East is concerned, by over-expectation after that Cairo speech. Now very little is expected of him.
Yet, the Middle East, with all its pressing problems, was never a priority in his first term when Hillary Clinton was secretary of state. In recent months, her successor, John Kerry, has been conducting frantic shuttle diplomacy trying to put together some sort of framework on which both Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas can agree, but a deal appears as far away as ever.
Mr Obama has been weak on Syria, constantly shifting his “red line” on American intervention to a point where even the negotiated decommissioning of Bashar Al Assad’s chemical weapons has been delayed time after time. The US leader has had some success in curbing Iran’s recalcitrance, but arguably that has had more to do with the apparent conciliatory tone of Tehran. On the current burning issue of Ukraine, Mr Obama has been wrong-footed by Vladmir Putin. It is unclear what, if anything, the US and the European Union can do to stifle Russia’s ambitions in that region.
Mr Obama’s achievements on the home front have been more impressive. He has steadied the economy in the wake of the worst financial crisis for 80 years, contained unemployment, raised the wages of the poorest Americans and introduced affordable health insurance.
Nobody expects much of Mr Obama’s talks with King Abdullah in Riyadh on Friday and that could be to his advantage. It was over-expectation that blighted his first term in the eyes of the Middle East. If there is a breakthrough greater than a statement reaffirming ties between the US and Saudi, it will be a welcome surprise.
