After months of relative calm, Kabul has witnessed a resurgence of violence, raising questions about the security situation in Afghanistan as it prepares for presidential elections on April 5, a contest considered crucial to the country's stability.
In the past week alone, Taliban insurgents have launched three attacks, including one on a foreign guesthouse in Kabul and another on an electoral office in the city, killing five people. The third and most audacious attack came on Saturday when a group of militants breached the Afghan election commission’s headquarters in the capital, making a brutal and clear statement of the group’s intention to disrupt the voting process and target those involved in it.
These attacks may have resulted in relatively few casualties, but they have had an enormous psychological effect, especially at a time when Afghans are staring at a future without foreign troops to protect them. According to an agreed timetable, more than 33,000 US troops will be withdrawn gradually after the elections, which means from the end of this year Afghanistan will be left on its own, no matter how bad the security situation gets. What happens then? Will the country be able to face the challenge, or will it succumb to Taliban rule, as it did in 1996? Some experts believe that the possibility of the Taliban returning to power is slim, and there is some logic to support this view.
Afghanistan is not the country it was more than a decade ago. Its soldiers and police are better disciplined, better trained and more patriotic, unlike previously when these forces suffered from a lack of order and their ranks were filled with untrained, weak and unwilling individuals.
The mindset of the people has undergone a transformation. Earlier, the Taliban found it relatively easy to win over a sizeable number of the population as well as the country’s uncommitted warlords. Afghanistan is a relatively more advanced, more modern nation and its people have moved forward, shunning their bitter memories of the repressive Taliban era. Despite rampant corruption and security threats, many Afghans are unwilling to believe that the Taliban would make their lives any better and are ready to risk those lives to exercise their right to vote.
Afghans are not new to violence and turmoil, but they have always shown remarkable resilience, determination and strength. When they go to the polls on Saturday, their courage will be tested once more.
