Are the allies on the same page after Biden's trip to Pakistan?


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The US vice president Joe Biden spent a very busy day last week shuttling between Pakistan and Afghanistan. On a rather hastily scheduled stop after visiting Kabul on January 12, he met separately with the Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari and the prime minister Yousaf Raza Gillani in Islamabad.

Ostensibly, this unscheduled visit was to reassure Pakistan of America's long-term commitment to the country and to express US concern about the public support for the murder of Salmaan Tasser, the governor of Punjab, killed by his own security guard because of his position against Pakistan's blasphemy law.

But when thinking about Mr Biden's relationship with Pakistan, it is important to keep in mind that he has been the strongest opponent to a prolonged US presence in Afghanistan. Mr Biden continued to oppose the "surge" of US troops in Afghanistan, even after it was sanctioned, reluctantly, by the US president Barack Obama. While Mr Biden and Mr Obama favoured talks with the Taliban, General David Petraeus, with some support from the US secretary of state and secretary of defence, opposed these talks until a decisive US victory forced the Taliban to the negotiating table. The Pakistani military leadership opposed Gen Petraeus's policy, doubting that US forces could achieve a "decisive victory" over the Taliban.

And in fact, the US has had several reasons since last month to re-think the "Petraeus policy" and to re-consider Mr Biden's view. His visit was unlikely to have been a courtesy call but rather an attempt to show the Pakistanis how the US view was changing.

Recent events have certainly provided the US reason for a re-think. Consider that Burhannuddin Rabbani, who heads the Afghan High Council for Peace and is the only Tajik veteran of the Afghan-Soviet war to have kept contacts with the Taliban, addressed a Pashtun Jirga in the Taliban invested region of Nangarhar. He told them that there was room to reconcile with the Taliban and convinced the Jirga that negotiations should be opened up.

Following this remarkable event, Mr Rabbani was then dispatched to Tehran, while the Afghan president Hamid Karzai travelled to Istanbul for the latest summit hosted by the Turkish president, Abdullah Gul, to bring Afghanistan and Pakistan's leadership closer together.

Turkey's efforts to serve as a mediator have proven more effective than America's but Iran's role also cannot be overlooked, which provides justification for Mr Rabbani's visit to Tehran. As a Tajik, he would be more welcome there than a Pashtun. Any reconciliation attempt with the Taliban would benefit from Tehran's support as Iran has always been concerned about the re-emergence of the die-hard Sunni Taliban, who mistreat the Shiite minority. Though Mr Rabbani's effort does not appear to have been a success - it appears that Tehran is prepared to "wait and see" - the effort to get them on board is instructive in itself.

Mr Rabbani was not likely to have travelled to Iran for his own enjoyment. He and a 25-member delegation travelled to Islamabad recently where Mr Rabbani met Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani to explain his approach, which includes excluding the US from negotiations with the Taliban.

While allies in this war against terrorism, the US and Pakistan have significantly diverging interests in the "end game" in Afghanistan, particularly in the pursuit of the "Petraeus policy". To execute this strategy, Pakistan has always been asked to do more, particularly in regard to the presence of the Haqqani group of Taliban in North Waziristan, an act that Pakistan's Army has consistently refused.

During a meeting that took place last year in Washington, Gen Kayani handed over an 11-page document to Mr Obama containing his analysis of its strategy and where and why the US was in error. Reportedly Mr Obama was taken aback but assured Gen Kiyani that the document would be "fully and seriously considered". While Pakistan's duplicity has frequently been highlighted in the US media, here, Pakistan was trying to explain itself. Pakistan, being a geographical neighbour to Afghanistan, has greater justification for guarding its own interests in the long term there than the US. States are expected to guard their own interests first - which the United States has often done with Pakistan - even at the cost of its allies.

But perhaps, rather than increasing mistrust or making room for greater duplicity, the United States and Pakistan are now getting back on the same page. As soon as Mr Biden's visit to Pakistan was announced, The Washington Post, based on briefings by senior officials, listed Mr Biden's priorities for the visit which, apart from reassuring Pakistan on a long term commitment, included three important shifts in US policy towards Pakistan. First, the US would no longer insist on an operation in North Waziristan. Secondly, Mr Biden would categorically reassure Pakistan that the US would not undertake ground-based cross border operations in Pakistani territory. And finally, Mr Biden recognised that "Pakistan has an important, if not dominant role in negotiating with the Taliban".

If that message was indeed delivered, perhaps both Gen Kayani, through his written analysis, handed over to Mr Obama, and the "Rabbani initiative" to push for talks with the Taliban, have changed minds in Washington.

Brig Gen Shaukat Qadir is a retired Pakistan infantry officer

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Racecard

2pm Handicap Dh 90,000 1,800m

2.30pm Handicap Dh120,000 1,950m

3pm Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m

3.30pm Jebel Ali Classic Conditions Dh300,000 1,400m

4pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m

4.30pm Conditions Dh250,000 1,400m

5pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m

5.30pm Handicap Dh85,000 1,000m

 

The National selections:

2pm Arch Gold

2.30pm Conclusion

3pm Al Battar

3.30pm Golden Jaguar

4pm Al Motayar

4.30pm Tapi Sioux

5pm Leadership

5.30pm Dahawi

UAE v Gibraltar

What: International friendly

When: 7pm kick off

Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City

Admission: Free

Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page

UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)

The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem 

Rating: 4/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

'The worst thing you can eat'

Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.

Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines: 

Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.

Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.

Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.

Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.

Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.