Too much attention is paid to estimated property completions in Dubai and it is of little interest to investors eyeing returns, says one real estate consultancy.
Although a large supply of new homes has a direct effect on the rental market, it is “fallacy” to believe that such numbers will drive sale prices downwards, says Phidar Advisory.
Jesse Downs, the co-founder and managing director of Phidar Advisory, said: “That type of data can influence investor sentiment but ultimately it is secondary to a whole tier of factors. One is liquidity. Sentiment can fuel a boom, but liquidity is what drives down markets.”
Phidar’s Q4 2015 report stated that the amount of liquidity had been affected by the sheer volume of off-plan sales in recent years, regardless of how close to completion these units actually are. Stage payments are still being made by investors for homes bought over 18 months ago, and with regional liquidity tightening, capital costs increasing and regional growth slowing, this means there is less money around to invest in either completed homes or new, off-plan units.
A war of words broke out between Damac Properties and a number of property consultancies last year as the Dubai-based developer took exception to reports of 25,000-plus units being delivered over the course of 2015.
Damac’s managing director, Ziad El Chaar, claimed that the consultants’ reports were having “a detrimental effect on the generally positive sentiment in the market”.
He said: “To suggest that Dubai is to be flooded with further housing is professional malpractice.”
JLL had argued that its forecast of 25,000 new homes being delivered in Dubai last year came from the developers’ own estimates. It has just published its own 2015 UAE property review, which stated that only 7,800 of these were delivered, adding that on average between 30 and 50 per cent of homes that developers had expected to be delivered were actually completed in recent years.
JLL added that developers’ estimates for completions in 2016 stand at 26,000, although it expects that many of these will also be pushed back. Phidar had said at the start of last year that 18,430 homes would be built in Dubai’s master-planned communities and investment zones but revised this down to 14,300 over the course of the year.
It estimated that over the next five years, the number of new homes actually built will grow at 3.6 per cent, while the numbers announced and launched suggest an increase of between 5.7 and 7 per cent. Demand growth is expected to be 6.5 per cent.
Both Phidar and JLL stated that apartment prices in Dubai had fallen by about 13 per cent during the past 12 months.
Phidar said this had pushed rental yields up to 7.7 per cent, but it is not expecting a levelling off or a recovery in the market, instead predicting a further decline in prices of up to 20 per cent through 2016 and 2017, as declining rents weaken investor returns.
“We’re starting to see rents are softening because the demand is softening on the end-user side,” said Ms Downs. “I’m not saying it’s going to be like 2009 or 2010, but it still has a way to go.”
She added that even with a further 20 per cent decline, sale prices would still not fall to as low as they were in 2010-11.
mfahy@thenational.ae
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
The lowdown
Bohemian Rhapsody
Director: Bryan Singer
Starring: Rami Malek, Lucy Boynton, Gwilym Lee
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Why seagrass matters
- Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
- Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
- Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
- Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV
RESULT
Bayern Munich 5 Eintrracht Frankfurt 2
Bayern: Goretzka (17'), Müller (41'), Lewandowski (46'), Davies (61'), Hinteregger (74' og)
Frankfurt: Hinteregger (52', 55')
RoboCop%3A%20Rogue%20City
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E5pm%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Al%20Shamkha%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ruwani%2C%20Moatasem%20Al%20Balushi%20(jockey)%2C%20Abdallah%20Al%20Hammadi%20(trainer)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5.30pm%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Khalifa%20City%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAF%20Heraqle%2C%20Bernardo%20Pinheiro%2C%20Qaiss%20Aboud%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6pm%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Masdar%20City%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AF%20Yatwy%2C%20Patrick%20Cosgrave%2C%20Nisren%20Mahgoub%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.30pm%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AF%20Alzahi%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7pm%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Emirates%20Championship%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20Dh1%2C000%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ajrad%20Athbah%2C%20Bernardo%20Pinheiro%2C%20Majed%20Al%20Jahouri%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.30pm%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shakbout%20City%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%202%2C400m%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Webinar%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 268hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: CVT auto
Fuel consumption: 9.5L/100km
On sale: now
Price: from Dh195,000
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 4 (Gundogan 8' (P), Bernardo Silva 19', Jesus 72', 75')
Fulham 0
Red cards: Tim Ream (Fulham)
Man of the Match: Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
The biog
Mission to Seafarers is one of the largest port-based welfare operators in the world.
It provided services to around 200 ports across 50 countries.
They also provide port chaplains to help them deliver professional welfare services.
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
Company%C2%A0profile
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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
