Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (C) meets representatives of Syria's political opposition in Moscow on January 27, 2017. Alexander Nemenov / AFP
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (C) meets representatives of Syria's political opposition in Moscow on January 27, 2017. Alexander Nemenov / AFP

When do Syria talks resume? Nobody’s sure



GENEVA // Confusion surrounds the timing of talks on Syria in Geneva as rebel factions continued to clash with Al Qaeda-linked militants in northern Syria in some of the worst infighting of recent years.

As diplomatic efforts to end the war in Syria paused, fighting flared up between Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham, the former Al Qaeda affiliate known as the Nusra Front, and more moderate, foreign-backed factions in areas west of Aleppo and the adjacent rebel-held province of Idlib.

The clashes between the two rebel groups are a sideshow to the main battle between rebels and the Syrian government, but they pose a threat to the coherence of any opposition to Syrian president Bashar Al Assad in the rebels largest territorial stronghold.

A rebel source said Fateh Al-Sham launched fierce new attacks on Friday.

“A short while ago there was tank bombardment of the base of the headquarters of our brothers in the Jaish al-Islam (faction) in Babsiqa,” said the source, who belongs to one of the groups involved in the fighting. “Activists are reporting casualties in a camp for women nearby from the tank and mortar bombardment.”

The clashes appeared to take place in two areas of Idlib — one west of Aleppo and close to the Turkish border, and the other south of Idlib city, close to the main motorway linking Aleppo to Damascus.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said each side was using “heavy weaponry”, and reported a number of civilian casualties.

In towns close to the fighting, several hundred people protested against Fateh Al-Sham for targeting rebel factions and demanded an end to the fighting to spare the lives of civilians. Fateh Al-Sham, which routed at least one Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel faction this week, is now fighting against a number of groups that have joined forces under the powerful Islamist Ahrar Al-Sham to fend off the assault.

Ahrar Al-Sham, which presents itself as a mainstream Sunni Islamist group, sided with the FSA groups and said Fateh Al-Sham had rejected mediation attempts. But Fateh Al Sham claims it was forced to act preemptively to “thwart conspiracies” being hatched against it.

The groups it has attacked include factions that attended peace talks in Kazakhstan sponsored by Damascus allies Russia and Iran, and rebel backer Turkey.

Idlib and neighbouring Aleppo province are host to hundreds of thousands of internally displaced civilians who are threatened by government and rebel violence on a daily basis.

In the town of Atareb, in the Aleppo province, a few hundred protesters called on the rebel factions to unite against the Fatah Al-Sham front in a demonstration recorded by Thiqa News Agency, an activist media outlet.

Meanwhile back in Europe, the resumption of talks on Syria was cast into doubt after Russia declared a postponement but the United Nations could not confirm it.

Meeting in Moscow with minor Syrian opposition figures — all of them state-approved — the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said the UN-hosted talks planned for February 8 had been “put back” until the end of that month.

But a spokeswoman for UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura said there was “no confirmation” the talks had been postponed.

Mr Lavrov’s remarks were made three days after talks between Damascus and rebel representatives wrapped up in the Kazakh capital Astana with no discernible progress.

UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura was scheduled to travel to New York on Monday for a meeting with the new secretary-general Antonio Guterres and to brief the security council in advance of the February 8 talks. UN spokesman Alessandra Vellucci said she could not confirm or any date change until Mr de Mistura returned, although he has referred to February 8 as the “target” for the next round of talks.

Key players Russia, Turkey and Iran backed the Astana talks and the main result was an agreement by the three sides to try to shore up a shaky ceasefire on the ground.

Representatives from the two sides had been expected to hold their first face-to-face talks in the Kazakh capital, but the rebels refused and mediators had to shuttle between them. Hopes for the next round are not high since the main rebel groups declined Mr Lavrov’s invitation to meet in Moscow.

However, in a move certain to rattle Turkey, representatives of Syria’s leading Kurdish party did attend the Moscow gathering on Friday. Turkey views the Democratic Union Party in Syria as an extension of the Kurdish insurgency within its own borders.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Kurdish participation in the Geneva process is “necessary.”

According to Kurdish adviser Nasser Haj Mansour, two Syrian Kurdish representatives at the Moscow gathering — Khaled Issa and Rody Othman — presented Lavrov on Friday with a plan for a federalised Syria, which would diminish Mr Assad’s authority over the country and bolster Kurdish gains in northern Syria.

The federalisation proposal has in the past been rejected by Syrian rebels and Damascus, as well as Turkey, which wants to keep Syrian Kurds and their growing influence in check.

* Agence France-Presse

* Associated Press

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More than 3,000 Russian companies are registered in the UAE

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The number of Russian tourists travelling to the UAE will increase to 12 percent to reach 1.6 million in 2023

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

UK's plans to cut net migration

Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.

Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.

But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.

Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.

Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.

The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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