Trump leads Biden in crucial US swing states, poll finds

Donald Trump is more popular than Joe Biden in five key states, as voters question the US President's handling of the US economy, foreign policy and immigration, a poll released on Sunday has found.

Exactly one year before the 2024 presidential election, polling by The New York Times and Siena College shows Mr Biden trailing Mr Trump, the runaway favourite to become the Republican presidential nominee, by three to 10 points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

The swing states are considered must-wins for any aspiring president.

The poll comes as two-thirds of Americans say the country is moving in the wrong direction. In states, including Michigan, which have large Arab American populations, voters say they will not vote for Mr Biden owing to his handling of the Israel-Gaza war.

Voters preferred Mr Trump by 12 points over Mr Biden on immigration, by 12 points on national security and by 11 points and on the Israeli-Gaza conflict.

Crucially, voters preferred Mr Trump over Mr Biden by a 59 per cent to 37 per cent margin on the economy.

The New York Times reported that younger voters favoured Mr Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr Trump's advantages in rural areas.

Women still prefer Mr Biden, but men are backing Mr Trump by twice as large a margin, the newspaper reported.

Mr Trump's growing popularity comes despite him facing felony charges in four criminal cases and other charges in several civil cases.

Mr Biden's age – he turns 81 on November 20 – continues to be a top concern among voters, even though Mr Trump is 77.

The polls found 71 per cent of respondents said Mr Biden was “too old” to be an effective president, whereas only 19 per cent held that view about Mr Trump.

Donald Trump’s legal woes – in pictures

Company%20profile

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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989

Director: Goran Hugo Olsson

Rating: 5/5

While you're here...

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Fifa Club World Cup quarter-final

Esperance de Tunis 0
Al Ain 3 (Ahmed 02’, El Shahat 17’, Al Ahbabi 60’)

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.

8. Pillar 2 implementation

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

AT%20A%20GLANCE

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The Bio

Favourite Emirati dish: I have so many because it has a lot of herbs and vegetables. Harees (oats with chicken) is one of them

Favourite place to go to: Dubai Mall because it has lots of sports shops.

Her motivation: My performance because I know that whatever I do, if I put the effort in, I’ll get results

During her free time: I like to drink coffee - a latte no sugar and no flavours. I do not like cold drinks

Pet peeve: That with every meal they give you a fries and Pepsi. That is so unhealthy

Advice to anyone who wants to be an ironman: Go for the goal. If you are consistent, you will get there. With the first one, it might not be what they want but they should start and just do it

Mobile phone packages comparison

Babumoshai Bandookbaaz

Director: Kushan Nandy

Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami

Three stars

The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem

Rating: 4/5

%E2%80%98White%20Elephant%E2%80%99

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jesse%20V%20Johnson%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Michael%20Rooker%2C%20Bruce%20Willis%2C%20John%20Malkovich%2C%20Olga%20Kurylenko%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Killing of Qassem Suleimani

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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The lowdown

Bohemian Rhapsody

Director: Bryan Singer

Starring: Rami Malek, Lucy Boynton, Gwilym Lee

Rating: 3/5

Results

7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: RB Kings Bay, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)

7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: AF Ensito, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash

8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,400m; Winner: AF Sourouh, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

8.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Baaher, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel

9pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Mootahady, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel

9.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Dubai Canal, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar

10pm: Al Ain Cup – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Harrab, Bernardo Pinheiro, Majed Al Jahouri

EMILY%20IN%20PARIS%3A%20SEASON%203

%3Cp%3ECreated%20by%3A%20Darren%20Star%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Lily%20Collins%2C%20Philippine%20Leroy-Beaulieu%2C%20Ashley%20Park%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202.75%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

The Vile

Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah

Director: Majid Al Ansari