The brutal conflict in Tigray and northern Ethiopia is entering its second year, having become one of the world's worst humanitarian crises that has no end in sight and only narrow US options available to stop it from spiralling into all-out civil war.
Beginning in November 2020 over a dispute between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the conflict has morphed into a protracted and expanding war across the country's north.
Forced starvation and what the UN calls “a de facto humanitarian aid blockade” have left about one million people facing famine and another 1.8 million on the brink of such conditions.
“In Tigray, 90 per cent of the population requires aid and up to 900,000 people are facing famine-like conditions,” US Envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeff Feltman said at the US Institute for Peace on Tuesday.
The UN estimates about 5.2 million people are in need of aid across the Tigray and Amhara regions.
The government of Mr Abiy, who won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for ending 20 years of hostility with Eritrea, has blocked aid deliveries to the region in a bid to pressure the TPLF. But the move has only exacerbated human suffering without halting advances by the opposition.
In the past week, the TPLF, in alliance with Oromo rebels, claimed control of the two strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha, about 380 kilometres north of Addis Ababa.
The fighting in Kombolcha, to the south of Dessie, has fuelled speculation that the TPLF is heading closer to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa and the Ethiopian government has issued a call to arms to its citizens in response.
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Amhara militia fighters gather in the village of Adi Arkay, 180 kilometres north-east of the city of Gondar, in Amhara region, northern Ethiopia in July, 2021. All photos: AFP -
Amhara militia on patrol. The Amhara government announced that local forces would go on the offensive against rebels from northern neighbour Tigray. -
Fighters from the Amhara militia rest take a break. The Amhara government said its forces would go into 'attack mode' in an effort to reverse Tigrayan gains. AFP -
Fenta Tereffe, spokesman for North Gondar zone Amhara forces, in the city of Debark, 75 kilometres north-east of Gondar. Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has vowed to 'repel' attacks by Ethiopia’s enemies. -
A boy shivers in the rain as drought-hit people carry sacks of maize received from an aid agency in southern Ethiopia.
In a Facebook post, Mr Abiy urged Ethiopians to use “any type of weapons … to block the destructive TPLF, to overturn it and bury it".
The Abiy government last month also expelled seven UN officials, accusing them of “meddling” in the conflict.
The conflict's humanitarian fallout is being fuelled by political paralysis and a lack of progress in mediation efforts. US, UN and African Union mediators have each failed to bring warring parties to the negotiating table.
“We're not getting much response and the military logic is still prevailing,” Mr Feltman said, noting that Ethiopia is facing full civil war.
“Studies show that the average modern civil war now lasts 20 years … A multi-decade civil war in Ethiopia would be disastrous for its future and for its people,” the US envoy said.
Absent dialogue and consensus, the war could lead to the deterioration of the integrity of the state, he added.
In its latest report, the International Crisis Group projected that the war is likely to worsen in its second year.
“The Tigray region’s forces recovered, compelling federal and allied Eritrean troops to retreat in June.
“Tigray forces then advanced into the adjacent regions of Amhara and, temporarily, Afar, causing mass displacement,” the group said.
The report pointed to deepening divisions and the alliance between Tigray and Oromo forces as increasing “the likelihood of all-out civil war” in Ethiopia.
US President Joe Biden in September authorised a sanctions mandate against the perpetrators of Ethiopia's conflict and Washington is resorting to punitive economic measures to pressure the opposing sides to negotiate.
On Tuesday, the US announced its decision to expel Ethiopia from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by January 1. The move would further constrain Addis Ababa's economy and cut duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products.
The US has also sanctioned the chief of staff of the Eritrean defence forces, which are fighting alongside Ethiopian troops in Tigray.
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Mother Roman Kidanemariam, 35, holds her malnourished daughter, Merkab Ataklti, 22 months old, in the treatment tent of a medical clinic in the town of Abi Adi, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo -
Gebre Kidan Gebrehiwet, 2, is treated for malnutrition after fleeing from the town of Abi Adi with his mother, Abeba Tesfay, at the Ayder Referral Hospital in Mekele, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo -
Birhan Etsana, 27, from Dengelat, uses a nasogastric tube to feed her malnourished baby, Mebrhit, who at 17 months old weighs just 5.2 kilograms (11 pounds and 7 ounces), at the Ayder Referral Hospital in Mekele, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo -
Abeba Gebru, 37, from the village of Getskimilesley, sits with her malnourished daughter, Tigsti Mahderekal, 20 days old, in the treatment tent of a medical clinic in the town of Abi Adi, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo -
An Ethiopian woman scoops up portions of yellow split peas to be allocated to waiting families after it was distributed by the Relief Society of Tigray in the town of Agula, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo -
Displaced Tigrayan women sit in a metal shack to eat food donated by local residents at a reception center for the internally displaced in Mekele, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo -
A woman stands in line to receive food donations at the Tsehaye primary school, which was turned into a temporary shelter for people displaced by conflict, in the town of Shire, Tigray region. Reuters -
Tigrayans stand in line to receive food donated by local residents at a reception center for the internally displaced in Mekele, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo -
An Ethiopian woman leaves with a portion of yellow split peas after it was distributed by the Relief Society of Tigray in the town of Agula, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo -
Displaced Tigrayans queue to receive food donated by local residents at a reception center for the internally displaced in Mekele, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. AP Photo
More designations are expected against people and entities from all sides of the conflict, US officials said.
Experts have cast doubts on the efficacy of US sanctions, especially if Ethiopia turns to external sponsors such as Russia, China and Turkey.
“There should not be high hopes that the sanctions regime will dissuade the warring parties from persisting in their dangerous course,” Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution wrote last month.
Still, she advocated targeted measures as a tool to avert full-scale civil war and drive de-escalation.
“By being able to deliver tough love to Addis [Ababa] and the TPLF, US policy has matured in the right direction,” Ms Felbab-Brown wrote.
