A rig in the Cromarty Firth, Invergordon. The UK government will cut the windfall tax on North Sea oil companies if prices normalise for a sustained period. PA
A rig in the Cromarty Firth, Invergordon. The UK government will cut the windfall tax on North Sea oil companies if prices normalise for a sustained period. PA
A rig in the Cromarty Firth, Invergordon. The UK government will cut the windfall tax on North Sea oil companies if prices normalise for a sustained period. PA
A rig in the Cromarty Firth, Invergordon. The UK government will cut the windfall tax on North Sea oil companies if prices normalise for a sustained period. PA

UK sets out changes to oil and gas windfall tax


Matthew Davies
  • English
  • Arabic

The UK government announced on Friday that the windfall tax on oil and gas companies will stay in place until 2028, but the 75 per cent level will drop to 40 per cent if “prices consistently return to normal levels for a sustained period”.

The potential lowering of the rate of Energy Profits Levy should prices stabilise at normal levels was made in response to warnings from North Sea oil and gas production companies that investment was falling as a result of the current level of the windfall tax.

The government says the Energy Profits Levy has raised about £2.8 billion ($3.51 billion) to date, helping it to pay just under half the typical household energy bill last winter.

It is predicted that the windfall tax will raise £26 billion by March 2028.

The tax rate for oil and gas companies will return to 40 per cent only if both average oil and gas prices fall to, or below, $71.40 per barrel for oil and 54p per therm for gas, for two consecutive quarters, the government said. It added that this new Energy Security Investment Mechanism is unlikely to be triggered before the Energy Profits Levy falls away in 2028.

Equinor's Johan Sverdrup oilfield platforms and accommodation jack-up rig Haven in the North Sea. Reuters
Equinor's Johan Sverdrup oilfield platforms and accommodation jack-up rig Haven in the North Sea. Reuters

Jobs and security

“While we stepped in to help, never again can our energy supplies be at the whim of petrostate despots like Putin,” said Gareth Davies, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury.

“That’s why it’s so important that we secure investment in our own domestic supply, protecting the tens of thousands of British jobs that come with it.

“It would be beyond irresponsible to turn off the North Sea taps overnight. Without oil and gas from British waters, we would be forced to import even more from overseas, putting our security of supply at risk.”

The industry body Offshore Energies UK estimates that 215,000 jobs in the UK are connected with the oil and gas sector and has said that 90 per cent of North Sea producers are cutting back investment, meaning that output could fall by 80 per cent in 10 years’ time.

Norway’s state oil company, Equinor, is still considering how to proceed with its major new North Sea project, Rosebank.

Applications for licences to explore and potentially develop 898 blocs in the North Sea were opened in October last year. This may lead to 100 such licences being award by the end of 2023.

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Florida: The critical Sunshine State

Though mostly conservative, Florida is usually always “close” in presidential elections. In most elections, the candidate that wins the Sunshine State almost always wins the election, as evidenced in 2016 when Trump took Florida, a state which has not had a democratic governor since 1991. 

Joe Biden’s campaign has spent $100 million there to turn things around, understandable given the state’s crucial 29 electoral votes.

In 2016, Mr Trump’s democratic rival Hillary Clinton paid frequent visits to Florida though analysts concluded that she failed to appeal towards middle-class voters, whom Barack Obama won over in the previous election.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Updated: June 09, 2023, 8:10 AM