Local election setback but not fatal blow to Rishi Sunak

Despite advances, Labour's results do not yet suggest an overall majority in next year's parliamentary poll

Labour party leader Keir Starmer holds a baby in Medway, where his party won the local election. Getty

Rishi Sunak is hoping that Saturday’s coronation will swiftly draw a line under a miserable set of local election results for his Conservative Party, the UK leader's first national electoral test since taking office last year.

The pomp and ceremony of King Charles III’s momentous day may well dim memories temporarily but the Tories cannot escape an emerging twin threat, predictably from Labour and somewhat more surprisingly from the Lib Dems.

The party, which won a sweeping majority of 80 with 365 MPs at the last general election, appears to be bleeding both red and blue following Thursday’s poll.

Labour is welcoming back the “Red Wall” voters from northern England, who appeared to have lent Boris Johnson their loyalty to "get Brexit done", and the Lib Dems are tearing into the “Blue Wall” of the south.

This is ominous for the Conservatives, with their majority dependent on northern MPs and the solid southern Tory vote.

With ballots still being counted on Friday, it looked possible they could lose in excess of 700 local councillors, the politicians who do the substantial grass roots work.

Labour’s greatest victory came in the Kent seat of Medway in the south, an area not held by the left-wing party since Tony Blair’s days.

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey celebrates with councillors and supporters after the local elections. Getty

Labour’s fourth leader since then, Keir Starmer, appears to show the most promise in to take power but the voting did not suggest this would be a coronation.

While Labour did well, winning more than 120 seats off the Tories by early on Friday, it was not the resounding swing needed for a majority.

The mountain they have to climb is to win 130 seats to form a government and with a 15 per cent plus lead in the polls, that remains achievable.

A small crumb of comfort for the Tories is that their share of the vote has not entirely collapsed with the more disciplined and professional approach of Mr Sunak’s government, after the implosion of Boris Johnson’s and then Liz Truss’s administrations, holding some ground.

Mr Sunak's leadership, while taking a blow, will survive despite the inevitable “Bring back Boris” chorus line — the Conservatives have had their fill of incompetence and dissembling.

Mr Sunak’s strategy from now will be to continue the trajectory of technocratic and sensible government that might provide enough conviction to persuade voters to stick with what they know.

But interrupting that thinking were the strides made by Lib Dems on Friday with an almost 20 per cent increase in seats. England’s third party generally does well in local elections but their potential gains in Tory heartlands of Sussex, Surrey and Hertfordshire produced a curious possibility.

There may well be an unofficial election pact with Mr Starmer, with Labour quietly drawing down its campaigning in southern Lib Dem target areas to unseat Conservatives.

The party’s leader Ed Davey disclosed there was “definitely some evidence” of tactical voting. The Lib Dems might also take Stratford-upon-Avon following the fallout from Nadhim Zahawi’s tax affairs.

Brexit could still be having an impact on Britain’s voting, with results showing Labour making its greatest gains in areas that voted Leave in 2016, while the Tories suffered their biggest losses in areas that voted Remain.

A suggestion that the climate crisis is going to become increasingly crucial in the political heartland came as the Greens more than doubled their councillors to 61.

Mr Starmer claimed Labour “blew the door off” with its count but it was still not quite enough to win an overall majority.

There is the possibility that the current issues with Scotland’s main party, the SNP, could open another route to power for Labour but the pointers indicate that Britain may well face a hung parliament in next year’s general election.