Scotland will learn the identity of its new leader on Monday after a bruising contest that exposed cracks in the movement for independence.
Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan are the three candidates running to lead the Scottish National Party and become First Minister of Scotland.
Whoever wins will be campaigner-in-chief for independence and a sparring partner of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as London refuses to allow a new referendum.
When The National joined candidates on the campaign trail, they acknowledged there was currently no clear majority for a breakaway.
They clashed on how to get there during the race to succeed Nicola Sturgeon, which has been marred by mud-slinging and chaos surrounding the ballot.
“There’s no getting away from the fact that it’s been a challenging selection contest,” Mr Yousaf said.
However, he denied that the new leader would be taking on a “poisoned chalice”.
Senior SNP figures, including Ms Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell, resigned during the contest after a slump in membership numbers was concealed from the media.
Ms Regan suggested members should be allowed to “edit” their ballots amid mutterings about the integrity of the contest.
Scottish leadership race - in pictures
Amid the chaos, some polls have shown the independence camp polling below 40 per cent, a rare low.
Unionists say the obsession with independence has led to problems such as health and poverty being overlooked during 16 years of SNP rule. Scotland's electorate voted to remain in the UK in a first referendum in 2014.
“Support for independence and support for the SNP have tailed off, that is absolutely true,” said Mark Diffley, a pollster in Edinburgh.
“It’s a bit early to be absolutely sure about whether this is a dip or something longer-lasting. A lot of that will depend on who’s elected, what their platform is, how well they can hit the ground running.”
Humza Yousaf, Health Secretary, 37
Mr Yousaf is running to be the first Muslim and ethnic minority First Minister of Scotland.
His plan is to stick to Ms Sturgeon’s left-leaning platform and make a progressive, independent Scotland such a popular idea that London cannot resist the tide.
“What we have to do, because people don’t get inspired by talk of process, is talk about the vision of independence,” he said at the final debate.
The only published poll of SNP members put Mr Yousaf ahead with 31 per cent of the vote — although almost a third answered “don’t know”.
Chris Hopkins of Savanta, the polling company that carried out the survey, said it was far from a guarantee that Mr Yousaf would win.
“Humza perhaps is the favourite because he has some very high-profile endorsements,” Mr Hopkins said. But “the assumption that he’s going to walk to victory, his coronation, is perhaps a little bit misguided”.
Rival camps have painted Mr Yousaf as a continuity candidate and the party machine’s man.
Ms Sturgeon has not taken sides but one close ally, Mhairi Hunter, said she was supporting Mr Yousaf to stop the party drifting right.
Mr Yousaf has promised to “reach across the divisions” in the party if he is elected leader.
Kate Forbes, Finance Secretary, 31
Ms Forbes’s campaign had a nightmare start.
Her expressions of conservative Christian views, in particular on same-sex marriage, led to some backers withdrawing their support.
She says she was merely being honest and has complained of relentless scrutiny of her faith.
Despite the false start, Ms Forbes is regarded as Mr Yousaf’s main challenger and some polling suggests she is the most popular candidate among Scots at large.
Like Mr Yousaf, Ms Forbes wants to build a majority for independence that London cannot ignore, but she puts more emphasis on reaching out to the unconverted.
“There’s no path to independence without persuading No voters to vote Yes,” she said.
In hustings Ms Forbes has clashed with Mr Yousaf over his proposals for higher taxes and his support for a transgender rights. Leftists have called her a "Tartan Tory".
She also wants powers over immigration and the constitution devolved to Scotland if the SNP emerges as kingmaker at the next UK election.
Mr Diffley said the SNP had always had a right-leaning wing despite its progressive image during the Sturgeon years.
“It was being held together by uniting around a single issue, that of independence, rather than aligning on a whole host of social and economic policies,” he said.
Ash Regan, former justice minister, 49
Ms Regan is seen widely as the outsider in the race.
She resigned from the Scottish Government last year in opposition to Ms Sturgeon's transgender rights bill, which London vetoed.
Ms Regan says she is “not as media-trained as my fellow candidates” — at one point during the final debate she asked for more time to think of an answer.
Her argument is that the SNP has “lost its way” and should step up pressure for independence by treating election victories as a mandate for a breakaway.
Another pledge is to form an independence commission to lay the groundwork for a separate Scotland.
“I don’t agree with my two colleagues that if we just get a sustained majority, automatically Westminster will just give us a referendum,” Ms Regan said.
Ms Regan’s outreach to other pro-independence parties has raised eyebrows in the SNP.
She acknowledges having contact with Alex Salmond, the former first minister who left the SNP and formed a separate party called Alba.
Mr Yousaf said candidates should come clean about who was backing them.
“We shouldn’t be entertaining the interjections of a rival political party that spends most of its time attacking the SNP,” he said.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Gulf rugby
Who’s won what so far in 2018/19
Western Clubs Champions League: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens: Dubai Hurricanes
West Asia Premiership: Bahrain
What’s left
UAE Conference
March 22, play-offs:
Dubai Hurricanes II v Al Ain Amblers, Jebel Ali Dragons II v Dubai Tigers
March 29, final
UAE Premiership
March 22, play-offs:
Dubai Exiles v Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Hurricanes
March 29, final
MAIN CARD
Bantamweight 56.4kg
Abrorbek Madiminbekov v Mehdi El Jamari
Super heavyweight 94 kg
Adnan Mohammad v Mohammed Ajaraam
Lightweight 60kg
Zakaria Eljamari v Faridoon Alik Zai
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Mahmood Amin v Taha Marrouni
Light welterweight 64.5kg
Siyovush Gulmamadov v Nouredine Samir
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Ilyass Habibali v Haroun Baka
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
More from Aya Iskandarani
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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How to become a Boglehead
Bogleheads follow simple investing philosophies to build their wealth and live better lives. Just follow these steps.
• Spend less than you earn and save the rest. You can do this by earning more, or being frugal. Better still, do both.
• Invest early, invest often. It takes time to grow your wealth on the stock market. The sooner you begin, the better.
• Choose the right level of risk. Don't gamble by investing in get-rich-quick schemes or high-risk plays. Don't play it too safe, either, by leaving long-term savings in cash.
• Diversify. Do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Spread your money between different companies, sectors, markets and asset classes such as bonds and property.
• Keep charges low. The biggest drag on investment performance is all the charges you pay to advisers and active fund managers.
• Keep it simple. Complexity is your enemy. You can build a balanced, diversified portfolio with just a handful of ETFs.
• Forget timing the market. Nobody knows where share prices will go next, so don't try to second-guess them.
• Stick with it. Do not sell up in a market crash. Use the opportunity to invest more at the lower price.
RESULTS
Cagliari 5-2 Fiorentina
Udinese 0-0 SPAL
Sampdoria 0-0 Atalanta
Lazio 4-2 Lecce
Parma 2-0 Roma
Juventus 1-0 AC Milan
