Tories could be reduced to third UK party, shock opinion poll warns

Scottish Nationalists would form opposition in British Parliament, according to latest survey of potential voters

Rishi Sunak, cabinet members and former prime ministers would lose their seats as MPs if the poll results were replicated in a general election. Getty Images

Britain’s Conservatives would slide from being in government to becoming the country’s third party were a snap general election to be called today, an opinion poll has indicated.

The survey found that not only would Labour overtake the Conservatives, but also the Scottish Nationalists to become the UK’s second-biggest party.

All three who held the role of prime minister last year — Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak — would be ousted as MPs, as would a string of Cabinet members, according to data from Find Out Now polling group and Electoral Calculus.

The poll, first reported by the Conservative-supporting Daily Telegraph newspaper, has been seen as a warning to the party of disillusionment and anger throughout the country.

Chris Holbrook, chief executive of Find Out Now, said the findings would make “shocking reading” for Conservatives.

“Mending perceptions of corruption may be their best hope,” he said.

With the recent controversies that have beset the government, a sense of one-rule-for-them pervaded much of the electorate — Partygate, second-job salaries, breaking Covid travel rules, misleading statements and most recently the eventual firing of Conservative Party chairman Nadhim Zahawi. He had breached the ministerial code by failing to declare an official investigation into his tax affairs.

Electoral Calculus chief executive Martin Baxter said: “The Conservatives have been far behind in the polls for the last four months, with little sign of improvement.

“They have lost support across the country, particularly in traditionally strong Conservative areas, which bodes very badly for the next general election.

“That election could be a near-wipeout and worse than 1997, with the Conservatives not even being the main opposition party.”

According to the poll results, among the big names to be out of a job would be Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Home Secretary Suella Braverman. Kwasi Kwarteng, the former chancellor in Ms Truss’s brief administration, would lose his seat as an MP.

If the poll were to be repeated at a general election, Labour would win handsomely and form the government. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) would be second and form the opposition, with the Tories in third and the Liberal Democrats fourth.

Labour would win with a landslide 49 per cent of the vote, with the Tories gaining a mere 23 per cent.

Labour would gain 306 seats, for 509 of the 650-seat total. The SNP would be the next-largest party with 50 members in the UK Parliament.

The Conservatives would win only 45 seats, an enormous decline from 365 in 2019.

The Liberal Democrats would end election night up from 11 MPs to 23. Plaid Cymru and the Greens would be unchanged with four and one MP, respectively.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, would become Leader of the Opposition.