Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon unveiled her plan for Scottish independence on Monday. Getty Images
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon unveiled her plan for Scottish independence on Monday. Getty Images
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon unveiled her plan for Scottish independence on Monday. Getty Images
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon unveiled her plan for Scottish independence on Monday. Getty Images

Nicola Sturgeon unveils master plan to make Scotland thrive outside of UK


Laura O'Callaghan
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Nicola Sturgeon has unveiled her master plan to enable an independent Scotland to prosper outside of the UK.

Capitalising on the chaos engulfing Westminster, the Scottish first minister pushed her vision for how the nation would thrive by leaving the union and becoming a member of the European Union.

In a speech at Bute House in Edinburgh on Monday, as her economic prospectus paper was published, Ms Sturgeon said her plan would bring about a “well-being economy that works for all” Scots. Scotland would, for example, be able to make full use of its natural resources, including its vast renewable energy potential, she said.

She hailed the plan as a “milestone on the conversation about how we can build a better Scotland”.

The leader of the Scottish National Party touched on currency, trade, borders and fiscal sustainability during her speech, pledging further papers in due course about energy, security, pensions and EU membership.

She previously announced that October 2023 had been earmarked for IndyRef2.

Supporters of Scottish independence take part in a rally in Glasgow. PA
Supporters of Scottish independence take part in a rally in Glasgow. PA

Fiscal stability

Ms Sturgeon said the recent turmoil unleashed on Britain’s financial markets by the mini-budget has showed “fiscal credibility and market stability are essential to the well-being and living standards of all of us”.

An independent Scottish central bank and a debt management office would be created if Scotland left the UK, she said. The institutions would operate independently of the government in Edinburgh and play a key role in ensuring the county’s fiscal sustainability, performance monitoring and transparent forecasting.

Ms Sturgeon also announced a vision to “significantly strengthen” Scotland’s Fiscal Commission so that it would effectively replicate the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility.

While an independent Scotland would not have a legal responsibility for UK debt, the first minister said it would bear a “moral responsibility”. Therefore the government in Edinburgh would work with Westminster to reach a “fair settlement on both debt and assets”.

Currency

A new currency would be introduced “as soon as practicable” under the Scottish government’s plan.

The circulation of new coins and notes would not be determined by a set timetable but instead by a series of requirements and criteria guided by information from the central bank and subject to a final say by members of the Scottish parliament.

Borders

An independent Scotland would remain part of the Common Travel Area which is made up of the UK, the Republic of Ireland and the Crown Dependencies — Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.

Ms Sturgeon said the notion that Scots would need to show their passports to visit relatives in England is “utter nonsense”. She stressed that while new arrangements for the border between Scotland and England would need planning for, the issues would not be unsurmountable.

She said Scots would have freedom of movement across the UK as well as the EU‘s 27 member states upon being granted membership in the bloc.

Trade

If Scots voted for independence, the government would begin a push to become part of the EU, the world’s largest trading bloc.

Ms Sturgeon said this would allow Scotland to “grow and diversity our trade the way Ireland did after joining the EU”.

Trade with the UK would also be important for an independent Scotland, she said, but it would not be the limit.

Why now?

Ms Sturgeon said it is only natural for people to want to “hunker down” in the midst of a storm and await calmer times but stressed that this strategy would not benefit Scotland because the UK is “fundamentally on the wrong path”.

While acknowledging that independence would not be a “miracle cure” for Scotland’s woes, the SNP leader insisted it would be the only viable path to prosperity.

In September 2014, Scots rejected independence in a referendum.

She said the country had come a long way since then and has since established its own tax and social security agencies. She pushed Scotland’s resources including its world-class universities and internationally competitive industries such as space to hammer her message home.

Rarely in history has there been another country “better prepared for independence than we are”, she said.

Ms Sturgeon used her speech to lambast Britain’s Conservative government, which is on a damage-control spree after the disastrous mini-budget announced on September 23 caused the pound to tank.

The new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, who replaced Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday, on Monday announced the reversal of almost all the policies announced in the mini-budget.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Liz Truss is clinging on for political survival in No 10 six weeks into her premiership.

“To say that this is now a UK government and a prime minister without a shred of credibility is an understatement,” Ms Sturgeon said.

She said it was a sign of “how badly broken” British politics are that “the prime minister’s resignation has not already been tendered”.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss said now is not the time to be discussion the break-up of the UK with Scottish independence. Reuters
British Prime Minister Liz Truss said now is not the time to be discussion the break-up of the UK with Scottish independence. Reuters

‘Now is not the time’

As expected, Downing Street reacted to Ms Sturgeon’s statement on independence with disapproval.

The prime minister’s official spokesman said “the prime minister remains of the view it is not the time to be talking about another independence referendum”.

“People in Scotland want their governments to be focused on the issues that matter to them, things like energy security, the cost of living and obviously supporting Ukraine in their war against Russia,” the spokesman added.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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How to keep control of your emotions

If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.

Greed

Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.

Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.

Fear

The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.

Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.

Hope

While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.

Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.

Frustration

Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.

Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.

Boredom

Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.

Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.

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Updated: June 21, 2023, 9:10 AM