The scale of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s task to fix the British economy while convincing his own voters is vertiginous and could be beyond reach, given the muted reaction to his speech at the Conservative Party conference on Monday.
While the markets might have modestly corrected following the turmoil induced by his mini-budget, it is evident that the British chancellor faces a mountainous task in convincing core Conservatives, as the not-quite packed main theatre at the party's annual conference in Birmingham failed to ignite with applause.
The tone was set when Prime Minister Liz Truss entered the auditorium to restrained clapping with at least three quarters remaining seated. It was a raw comment on the poor light in which the government is viewed by its own party, let alone the wider electorate.
Mr Kwarteng’s announcement 11 days earlier of dishing out bountiful tax cuts without them being funded or thought through has been a disastrous start for the post-Boris Johnson administration. One outcome has been some homeowners — who are largely Conservative voters — having their monthly mortgage payments double in the past week.
To some extent the government’s about face on restoring the highest tax bracket to 45 per cent back from 40 per cent had removed some of the toxicity of the highest earners getting the biggest reward.
“What a day,” Mr Kwarteng opened after striding on to stage to a noticeably sedate audience.
“Turbulence — I get it,” he later quipped. There was polite laughter but also glances at phones that showed after a week of plunging prices, there was at least some stability in the FSTE 100 and the pound.
Mr Kwarteng had no option other than to be undaunted by the lukewarm welcome, knowing that failure to turn the economy around in the next few months will cause Conservative support to plummet.
“To grow the economy, we need to do things differently,” he stated without irony.
“We will get Britain moving,” he insisted, repeating the Conservative’s rather insipid slogan.
He made great play of his grand announcements in cutting income tax, corporation tax and national insurance but the applause remained muted.
The front row of Cabinet ministers, including Ms Truss, tried to clap furiously but the humiliation began to tell as few of the 1,000 or so supporters behind followed suit.
But they did come alive when he mentioned the European Union. EU laws had been “holding the country back”, said Mr Kwarteng while promising to “break down the barriers”. The red meat to the party of Brexiteers was duly accepted, but it was a fleeting moment of rapture.
The question is, how credible are the new government’s promises? The great tax giveaway would lead to 2.5 per cent growth in gross domestic product, he insisted.
“We’ve done it before and we will do it again,” Mr Kwarteng said. “Wow!” cried a lone heckler in disbelief.
The unfunded tax cuts — which rely substantially on massive borrowing — are a huge risk, something that business leaders in the audience fully understood.
“This is all very un-Conservative,” one muttered audibly.
Two businessmen who are long-time Conservative supporters spoke to The National before Mr Kwarteng's speech about what they wanted to hear.
“We want to hear a clear path to fiscal prudence,” one said. “They need to plan the growth properly. You can’t just turn on the taps and expect it to flow.”
His friend nodded in agreement, understanding that the impact on the party’s core reputation was based on responsible economics.
“Once you have lost trust, it’s a lot harder to win it back,” he lamented.
As the speech came to an end, the lukewarm applause returned.
“It was very short on detail,” said the first businessmen. “But reducing the corporation tax will help, so those things actually are really good.”
His friend agreed while also bemoaning the lack of detail.
“I thought that we were going to get more substance although I think he did reasonably well,” he said. “But he’s got 100 days to get the detail through and you could tell by the lack of applause that he didn’t fully convince. It’s now just a question of ‘wait and see’”.
Ms Truss will hope that her own MPs and party give her the time to prove her economic gamble rests on solid foundations. If not, her party faces electoral demise, potentially for many years.
She will hope, too, that there will be a good deal more alacrity in supporters jumping to their feet when she makes her speech on Wednesday morning. If she can electrify her audience, then her government may well start the long climb out of the foothills of economic descent.
Profile
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PRESIDENTS CUP
Draw for Presidents Cup fourball matches on Thursday (Internationals first mention). All times UAE:
02.32am (Thursday): Marc Leishman/Joaquin Niemann v Tiger Woods/Justin Thomas
02.47am (Thursday): Adam Hadwin/Im Sung-jae v Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
03.02am (Thursday): Adam Scott/An Byeong-hun v Bryson DeChambeau/Tony Finau
03.17am (Thursday): Hideki Matsuyama/CT Pan v Webb Simpson/Patrick Reed
03.32am (Thursday): Abraham Ancer/Louis Oosthuizen v Dustin Johnson/Gary Woodland
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World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Age: 19
Profession: medical student at UAE university
Favourite book: The Ocean at The End of The Lane by Neil Gaiman
Role model: Parents, followed by Fazza (Shiekh Hamdan bin Mohammed)
Favourite poet: Edger Allen Poe
NBA Finals so far
(Toronto lead 3-1 in best-of-seven series_
Game 1 Raptors 118 Warriors 109
Game 2 Raptors 104 Warriors 109
Game 3 Warriors 109 Raptors 123
Game 4 Warriors 92 Raptors 105
How to keep control of your emotions
If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.
Greed
Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.
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Fear
The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.
Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.
Hope
While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.
Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.
Frustration
Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.
Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.
Boredom
Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The Land between Two Rivers: Writing in an Age of Refugees
Tom Sleigh, Graywolf Press
Sugary teas and iced coffees
The tax authority is yet to release a list of the taxed products, but it appears likely that sugary iced teas and cold coffees will be hit.
For instance, the non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Cold coffee brands are likely to be hit too. Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
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