Voters in two very different constituencies in England could deliver a double blow to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in Thursday’s by-elections — the first major test of public opinion since he survived a vote of confidence and was fined for breaking Covid-19 lockdown rules.
Tiverton and Honiton in Devon and Wakefield in West Yorkshire will hold ballots, the results of which could bring about the downfall of Mr Johnson if the worst-case scenario plays out.
Following a series of scandals that has blighted the ruling Conservative Party in recent months, Mr Johnson is battling low levels of confidence among his own MPs, as well as harsh criticism from once staunchly loyal voters.
The chances of a government losing in two by-elections on the same day is extremely rare — the last time it happened was more than 30 years ago — but given the unique circumstances of the political landscape nothing can be ruled out.
Constituents in both areas will head to the polls from 7am, with polling stations closing at 10pm. The counting will take place throughout the night with results expected to be announced on Friday morning.
Tiverton and Honiton
The constituency, which covers a cluster of villages and market towns surrounded by farming country in Devon, is a traditional Tory heartland. Since its inception in 1997, residents have always returned a Conservative politician to represent them.
The most recent MP, Neil Parish, secured a majority of 24,239 in the last general election.
Mr Parish resigned as MP for the seat in May after he admitted to watching pornography on his phone in the House of Commons. Voters in Honiton this week told The National the scandal had damaged their trust in the Tories.
Some said the embarrassing case of misconduct, along with the Partygate scandal, had forced them to rethink their support for the Conservatives.
The Liberal Democrats have in recent weeks undertaken an ambitious campaign to flip the seat in their favour. They were forced to deny a secret pact with Labour to keep campaigning to a minimum in Wakefield — a former Labour stronghold — while throwing everything into their campaign in Tiverton and Honiton.
Richard Foord, who is hoping to be elected as the first Lib Dem MP to represent Tiverton and Honiton, told The National the party was fighting for every vote in the Tory bastion. He is favourite to win.
“It could be close but we are also feeling that there is some momentum moving away from the Conservatives and towards the Liberal Democrats as we approach the election,” he said.
For the Lib Dems to win it would take a swing of 22.8 points, or the equivalent of 23 in every 100 people who voted Conservative in 2019 switching to the party.
Wakefield
The seat in West Yorkshire is poles apart from Tiverton and Honiton in terms of its political DNA.
The constituency was one of the many bricks in Labour’s “Red Wall” that flipped to the Tories in the 2019 general election on the back of Mr Johnson's promise to deliver Brexit.
Labour had held Wakefield for 87 years before it was won by the Tories’ candidate Imran Ahmad Khan in 2019. Mr Khan, who won with a majority of 3,358, resigned as an MP in May after being convicted of sexually assaulting a boy.
More than two years later, the mood among voters in the North of England is very different.
The cost-of-living crisis, rising fuel prices and increasing household bills have pushed many further into poverty. Some full-time workers have had to seek support from food banks because they do not have enough cash left for groceries after their bills have been paid.
To overturn the Conservative majority of 3,358, Labour needs a swing in the share of the vote of 3.8 percentage points — in other words, four in every 100 people who voted Tory in 2019 would need to switch to Labour.
Boris Johnson through the years - in pictures
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Boris Johnson has had an eventful time during his life in politics and journalism. Here, 'The National' looks back at his life in pictures. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson attends the coronation ceremony of Britain's King Charles III at Westminster Abbey in May. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson leaves his home to attend a televised evidence session in March in front of the Commons Privileges Committee. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson listening to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy address parliamentarians in Westminster Hall in February. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and Carrie Johnson arrive at Westminster Abbey for the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II in September 2022. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson he announces his resignation as prime minister outside 10 Downing Street in July 2022. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson at a press conference in response to the publication of the Sue Gray report into Partygate at Downing Street in May 2022. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson reads the long-awaited report by senior civil servant Sue Gray into the Downing Street party scandal, in his Downing Street office in May 2022. Photo: Downing Street -
Mr Johnson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in central Kyiv in April 2022. The British prime minister paid an unannounced visit to Kyiv in a show of solidarity with Ukraine. AFP -
Mr Johnson watches an early morning police raid on a home in Liverpool as part of an operation to thwart drug dealing, in December, 2021. Getty Images -
The prime minister battles with his umbrella while with Prince Charles at The National Memorial Arboretum in July 2021, in Stafford, England. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and his wife before the Uefa European Championship final between Italy and England at Wembley Stadium, London, in July last year. Getty Images -
The British prime minister with US President Joe Biden, European Council President Charles Michel, former Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi during the G7 Summit in Cornwall, in June 2021. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson with his wife Carrie in the garden of 10 Downing Street after their wedding at Westminster Cathedral, in May last year. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson visits Hartlepool after Conservative Party candidate Jill Mortimer won a parliamentary by-election in May, 2021. Getty Images -
The prime minister after receiving the first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine at St Thomas' Hospital in London in March, 2021. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson after signing a Brexit trade deal with the EU in December 2020. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson examines a vial of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 candidate vaccine, at a pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Wrexham, Wales, in November 2020. Getty -
Mr Johnson demonstrating the two-metre distancing rule during his visit to St Joseph's Catholic Primary School in Upminster, East London, in August 2020. PA -
In this photo, published alongside the Sue Gray report into the Partygate affair, Mr Johnson is seen at a gathering in the Cabinet Room in 10 Downing Street on his birthday in June, 2020. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and former chancellor Rishi Sunak use hand sanitiser during a visit to the Pizza Pilgrims restaurant in June 2020, in east London, to see how they are getting their business ready to reopen as coronavirus lockdown restrictions were lifted in England. PA -
Mr Johnson and his fiancee Carrie Symonds applaud key workers outside 10 Downing Street in May 2020, during the coronavirus pandemic. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson in the Cabinet Room observing a minute's silence in April 2020 in a tribute to the health staff and key workers who died during the coronavirus outbreak. PA -
Boris Johnson appears on monitors for a meeting in March 2020. The prime minister chaired morning meetings on the coronavirus remotely from Number 11 Downing Street, while self-isolating after testing positive for the virus. Reuters -
Members of a family listen as BMr ris Johnson makes a televised address to the nation from 10 Downing Street in March 2020, where he outlined the latest instructions to stay at home to help contain the Covid-19 outbreak. AFP -
Mr Johnson speaks to British troops stationed in Estonia during a one-day visit to the Baltic country in December 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and Carrie Symonds enter Downing Street as the Conservatives celebrate a sweeping election victory in December 2019. Getty -
Boris Johnson is greeted by staff at 10 Downing Street after meeting Queen Elizabeth II and accepting her invitation to form a new government in December 2012. PA -
Former US president Donald Trump and Mr Johnson arrive for a bilateral meeting during the G7 summit in August 2019 in Biarritz, France. Getty -
The queen welcomes Mr Johnson as the newly elected leader of the Conservative Party, during an audience in July 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson, then Britain's foreign secretary, stands in front of St Basil's Cathedral during a visit to Moscow's Red Square in December 2017. Getty -
Mr Johnson collides with a child during a Street Rugby tournament in Tokyo in 2015, held to mark Japan hosting the 2019 Rugby World Cup -
As mayor of London Mr Johnson competes in a tug-of-war in October 2015. Getty Images -
The Olympic Flag is passed from Mr Johnson to IOC President Jacques Rogge during the closing ceremony of the London 2012 Olympic Games. Getty Images -
Mayor of London Boris Johnson with Prime Minister David Cameron during the lighting of the Paralympic Cauldron in Trafalgar Square, in August 2012. PA -
Boris Johnson gets stuck on a zip-line during a BT London Live event in Victoria Park in August 2012. Getty -
Mr Johnson and Lord Sebastian Coe cheer as a giant set of Olympic rings is displayed from Tower Bridge in June 2012, Getty Images -
Mr Johnson gestures attends a Harry Potter studio tour of Diagon Alley, at the Warner Brother Studios, London, in December 2011. AP Photo -
Mr Johnson at the launch of London's first cycle hire scheme in July 2010. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson with artists' impressions of the design for London's new Routemaster bus in May 2010. Getty Images -
The candidates to be mayor of London; Labour's Ken Livingstone, Conservative Boris Johnson and Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick, being questioned on BBC's 'Newsnight' programme in April 2008. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson on the North Pier in Blackpool during the Conservative Party conference there in October 2005. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson at his desk in 2000 while he was a journalist for 'The Telegraph'. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson when he was president of the Oxford Union society speaking to the Greek minister for culture Melina Mercouri when she addressed the union. Reuters -
Boris Johnson in September 1979, at Eton School. Shutterstock
