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Russia is ready to unleash its paratroopers on eastern Ukraine, despite low morale after they were “chewed up” in the battle for Kyiv, western security sources have said.
Losses among elite VDV airborne troops have been so high that regiments formerly composed of three battalions have been shrunk to two battalions and in some cases one, after bloody battles north of the Ukraine capital.
Following Russia's withdrawal from around Kyiv, Russia's President Vladimir Putin has now appointed a commander who led Russian troops in Syria in 2015 to command the key Donbas region offensive in the east.
Gen Alexandr Dvornikov, 60, who was decorated by Moscow for his Syrian campaign, will be under pressure to deliver results for Mr Putin before Russia’s Second World War celebration of Victory Day on May 9.
But the desire to achieve quick results is leading Moscow’s commanders to commit the same mistakes while failing to change tactics, leaving their armoured vehicles vulnerable to attack by Ukrainians armed with anti-tank weapons, say experts.
Before the invasion, the VDV paratroopers — known as the “blue berets” — were feared as a well-honed force, equivalent to western counterparts such as Britain’s Parachute Regiment and US airborne forces.
But paratroopers were sent into the fight underprepared and without the necessary armour to tackle the onslaught of the Ukraine military, a senior western official said.
“The airborne forces were really badly cut up, driven by Putin's belief that they were going to be welcomed as liberators,” the official said. “Those relatively lightly armoured airborne forces got really quite badly chewed up so they've had to internally reconstitute the force, which means its overall mass is reduced.”
The high casualty rate had had a significant “psychological impact” on the men, the official said.
“These are meant to be elite Russian fighting troops, who have been defeated … and are now being put back into the fight. There has to be a question mark over their morale and confidence in their leadership.”
After more than 40 days of near-constant combat around Kyiv, the VDV troops are being put back into battle but this time under the command of the Syrian veteran.
Gen Dvornikov will inherit a Russian army that has shrunk from 125 battalion tactical groups to 100, with significant amounts of brand-new equipment left behind as they withdrew from Kyiv — including tanks, artillery and armoured infantry vehicles.
“There’s a lot of Russian equipment which has been abandoned in that hasty withdrawal and that's only going to exacerbate the challenge they have in terms of the refurbishment and reconstitution of their forces,” the western official said.
Fighting in Donbas region, where about 30,000 of Ukraine's best troops are deployed, will bring more casualties and have a greater “psychological effect”, said the official.
Gen Dvornikov also cannot afford to wait to build up strength and morale to try to take Donbas, because of the “political imperative” of May 9 and because Ukrainian reinforcements are be moving from Kyiv.
“Unless Russia is able to change its tactics and be far more effective at using all the tools to its advantage, then it's very difficult to see how they succeed in even these limited objectives,” the western official said.
“There is a risk as far as the Russians are concerned that Ukrainian forces will redeploy and start to have an impact on Russian freedom of manoeuvre to execute operations around the Donbas.”
However, in early operations in Donbas in recent days “we've not seen significant adjustments from the tactics which they've used previously”, he added.
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Women, wrapped in a Ukrainian flag, embrace during a flash mob protesting sexual abuse by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, at Washington Square Park in New York. AFP -
The train station, seen from a train car, after a rocket attack in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. A rocket attack on the station in the eastern Ukrainian city killed 52 people as civilians raced to flee the Donbas region bracing for a feared Russian offensive. AFP -
Antonina Kaletnyk waits for the body of her son in front of a collapsed building in the town of Borodianka, north-west of Kyiv. AFP -
A vehicle drives past a hole on a damaged bridge, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AFP -
A segment of a large rocket with the words "for our children" in Russian is pictured next to the main building of the train station in Kramatorsk. EPA -
Antonina Kaletnyk waits for the body of her son in front of a collapsed building in the town of Borodianka, northwest of Kyiv. AFP -
A woman waves goodbye to her husband as she leaves on a bus, a day after the rocket attack at a train station in Kramatorsk. AFP -
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and EU foreign affairs envoy Josep Borrell during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine. EPA -
European Commission President Ursula and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attend a news conference in Kyiv. Reuters -
Ms von der Leyen shakes hands with President Zelenskyy as Mr Borrell looks on during their meeting in Kyiv. EPA -
Ms von der Leyen and Mr Borrell before their meeting with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv. EPA -
Ms von der Leyen, Mr Borrell and Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal visit the town of Bucha, outside of Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Smoke rises after Russian shelling at the railway station in Kramatorsk, in the Donbas region of Ukraine. AP -
Burnt vehicles are seen in the aftermath of a rocket attack on the railway station in Kramatorsk. AFP -
Policemen at the scene in Kramatorsk. AFP -
The remnants of a rocket after the deadly strike in Kramatorsk. AFP -
Survivors of the attack sit on a bench outside the station. AFP -
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen departs for Kyiv in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters -
A man wheels his bicycle past a destroyed tank in Chernihiv. AP -
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Barcelona Mayoress Ada Colau visit the refugee centre set up at Fira de Barcelona for the care, temporary reception and referral of Ukrainian citizens fleeing the war. EPA -
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin follows the address of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy via video link at the Finnish Parliament in Helsinki. AFP -
A young refugee from Ukraine and a dog wait in the ticket hall of the railwlay station in Przemysl, eastern Poland, which has become a hub for refugees from Ukraine fleeing their country due to Russia's aggression. AFP -
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanks MPs after his virtual address to the Greek Parliament in Athens. AFP -
Firefighters take a rest after working at the site of buildings that were destroyed by shelling, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Borodyanka, in the Kyiv region, Ukraine. Reuters -
Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, poses for a picture during an interview with The Associated Press during an interview in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
Ukrainian soldiers Anastasia and Vyacheslav embrace prior to their wedding ceremony in a city park in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
Yurii, 41, who serves in the Ukrainian military, grabs a wedding photograph from his apartment in Hostomel, Ukraine. Getty Images -
A damaged car is seen next to a heavily damaged apartment building in Hostomel, Ukraine. Getty Images -
Burnt cars are seen next to a field in Hostomel, Ukraine. Getty Images -
Svitlana, 62, shows a heavily damaged house in the residential area, in Hostomel, Ukraine. Getty Images -
Ukrainians, who fled to Mexico amid the Russian invasion of their homeland, enjoy the performance of a mariachi band at the Benito Juarez sports complex, set up as a shelter by the local government, after arriving in Tijuana to enter the U. S. , in Tijuana, Mexico. Reuters -
A Bushmaster protected mobility vehicle bound for Ukraine waits to be loaded onto a C-17A Globemaster III aircraft at RAAF Base Amberley, Australia. AP -
Residents and volunteers cross the destroyed bridge to the city with supplies in Irpin, Ukraine. Getty Images -
A Ukrainian serviceman attends a training session in Kharkiv outskirts, Ukraine. AP -
A Ukrainian serviceman walks on a destroyed Russian fighting vehicle in Bucha, Ukraine. AP -
Screens show results from voting by the UN General Assembly in New York as member countries pass a resolution to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. EPA -
The shell of a theatre destroyed in the southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. Reuters -
A woman lights candles during a demonstration to support Ukraine in downtown Sofia. AFP -
Territorial Defence fighters are trained near Kharkiv. EPA -
Rescuers work among remains of residential building destroyed by Russian shelling in Borodyanka, Kyiv region. Reuters -
Smoke rises over the town of Rubizhne, in the Donbas region. AFP -
Ukrainian soldiers sit on an armoured military vehicle in the city of Severodonetsk, Donbass region. AFP -
Painted pictures showing Ukrainian cities hang on a wall at "Cafe Ukraine" in Berlin, Germany. Getty -
A Ukrainian refugee's dog arrives on a train from Odesa at Przemysl Glowny train station in Poland. Reuters
