Ukraine faces a moment of “true peril” in the weeks ahead as Russian military commanders plan to encircle its best troops, analysts have said.
Up to 45,000 soldiers — a third of Ukraine’s professional army along with some of its recently acquired equipment — are in Donbas, on the front line with separatists and Russian forces in the east.
If the siege of Mariupol ends quickly, many Russia troops will be freed for a pincer movement from the north and south to entrap Ukrainian forces in the area referred to as the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) — the troops sent to the eastern line of contact that bounded the separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The war could then turn, with Russia’s larger forces and amount of equipment overwhelming Ukraine’s superior fighting skills.
This scenario increases the importance of Mariupol, as the longer it holds out, the more losses Russia will suffer, weakening its southern pincer.
Mariupol’s tenacity will also buy time for the JFO to either strengthen defences or leave before being cut off.
“We are entering the period of true peril for Ukraine where [the prospect of] encirclement and destruction for its forces starts to become more realistic,” said Sam Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank.
“I think we're going to begin seeing the situation really start to shift in Russia's favour.”
Defence strategist Brigadier Ben Barry agreed with Mr Cranny-Evans's assessment that a moment of alarm had arrived for Ukraine's military.
“The Ukrainians must be concerned, or they ought to be concerned about this,” said Mr Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.
“Because if Mariupol falls, then that releases Russian forces to do different things, one of which could be to continue to push north up along the lines of the Dnieper Valley in an effort to threaten the forces in eastern Ukraine in Donbas.”
What can Ukraine do?
Central to Ukraine's efforts to counter Russia artillery will be the ability to locate and destroy it, analysts said. Ukraine has — and is reported to be acquiring more — US-made radar that can precisely locate or trace artillery and rocket fire.
If the Ukrainians have preserved their self-propelled howitzers and missiles, this might allow them to counter the Russian artillery threat.
However, it is a question of resources and of whether sufficient stocks are getting into Ukrainian hands from the West.
So far, the supply of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles has allowed Ukraine to keep Russia at bay.
More radar, drones and long-range precision missiles could make a significant difference to Ukrainian operations.
Ukrainian forces have also chosen to fight in small units that can mount swift attacks on armoured columns.
Once Russia co-ordinates its electronic warfare systems with its artillery and its drones, it will be able to locate and attack Ukrainian troops.
Moscow’s generals will also be seeking to force the Ukrainians to “mass in a place that suits Russia”, where it can “decisively engage them when they emerge”, Mr Cranny-Evans said.
“If the Russians are able to start surrounding these major town and the Ukrainians can't get through to their forces, then time begins to shift in favour of Russia because Russia can continue those bombardments indefinitely.
“That really changes the tempo of the operation.”
Battle at Kramatorsk
If Mariupol falls and the Russian forces to the south of Kharkiv push on, Ukraine’s best troops could find themselves besieged at Kramatorsk.
Faced by a pincer movement and entrapment, they would have to decide on fight or flight.
If a force remains, there will be heavy fighting and Russia’s greater numbers could overwhelm Ukraine’s best troops, especially the combat-hardened JFO.
“They will start losing casualties because the JFO have either got to stay or escape,” said Tim Ripley, an analyst with Janes Defence Weekly.
“If they try to escape, they'll be vulnerable to being spotted and attacked. That's the point where Russia’s advantages in artillery and air power come into play.
“That's why the Ukrainians are fighting like tigers in Mariupol, trying to tie down as many troops as possible so the Russians cannot use them to attack the JFO.”
If the encirclement of the JFO stops any supplies getting in, then the end could come “quite quickly”, Mr Cranny-Evans said.
“You will end up with a very one-sided fight and we'd probably know about the result before it was over.”
The JFO encirclement is something western defence sources also fear but believe Kyiv’s generals will be alert to the danger.
“It’s the area of the battlefield where we've got the greatest concern,” a defence source told The National. “There's a vulnerability for those forces to encirclement.”
But a sudden Ukraine withdrawal could also end in “road of death territory” if the Russians started co-ordinating their hardware, said Mr Ripley, author of Little Green Men: Putin’s Wars since 2014.
The unknowns
The extent of losses on both sides is unclear. Ukraine's military dead could be as high as 4,000 and Russia’s 10,000, some estimates show.
Much of the imagery shown on platforms such as Telegram or TikTok are managed by both sides and, without proper intelligence, it is like “looking through a drinking straw”, Brig Barry said.
Both sides are managing information to “match their messaging”, with Ukraine showing the world that it is the victim but that it could hold out with western help.
The Russian “punishment strategy of bombardment” was possibly to improve their position before negotiations.
“Or it may be marshalling its supplies to recommence operations with a large offensive somewhere — or several large offensives,” Brig Barry said.
“We also shouldn't forget also the political significance of Kyiv and we can't rule out a renewed effort to encircle the capital.”
Spring offensive
Spring weather will mean the snowmelt “rasputitsa” mud that has forced Russian tanks on to roads will recede, allowing greater force mobility across Ukraine.
Russia will be able to restock its supply lines, but that also applies to Ukraine’s armour and lorries, particularly the brigades in the JFO.
Although there have been Russian atrocities, the war has also so far remained “limited”, in that neither side has escalated to the level of mass direct attacks on civilians such as the bombing of refugee trains or Ukraine launching missile against Russian cities.
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A firefighter works at a residential district that was damaged by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A woman removes pieces of broken glass from a shop window after a bombing in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
Residents clean the street outside apartments damaged by shelling, in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
A man walks at a residential district that was damaged by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Rescuers work at the site of buildings damaged by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Mykolaiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Launch of missiles by the coastal missile system 'Bastion' on infrastructure facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from an undisclosed position in Crimea. As a result of a strike with long-range precision weapons, an arsenal with weapons and military equipment of Ukrainian troops in the village of Orzhev, 14 kilometres north-west of the city of Rivne, two Tochka-U launchers near Kiev, and eight anti-aircraft missile systems were destroyed. EPA -
Pictures lie amidst the rubble of former teacher Natalia's house which was was hit in a military strike, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A Ukrainian serviceman rests at his position in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP -
A hug for a child at the railway station in Przemysl, near the Polish-Ukrainian border, as Ukrainian refugees make their way out of the war zone. AFP -
Displaced Ukrainians on a Poland-bound train bid farewell at Lviv, western Ukraine. AP -
Ukrainian servicemen rest in Kharkiv. AP -
A car wrecked and burnt by shelling in a street in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP -
A member of pro-Russian unit in uniform without insignia handles a mortar round at a weapons depot near Marinka, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. Reuters -
The aftermath of shelling in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. EPA -
Nurses in tears after Russian shelling of a psychiatric hospital in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine. AFP -
Candles and lights form a giant peace sign during the Avaaz vigil in front of the European Council and Commission buildings in Brussels, Belgium. AP -
A wrecked car in a ruined street in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP -
Rescue workers at an industrial building damaged by an air strike in Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
The monument to the Duke of Richelieu, one of the founders of the city of Odesa, is covered by sand bags. Near by, a placard shows the building before the Russian invasion. EPA -
People clean up a room in an apartment building in Kyiv destroyed in an air raid, as Russia presses on with its invasion of Ukraine. Reuters -
An instructor shows citizens how to fire the weapon during a shooting training session in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian troops hurl stun grenades at demonstrators protesting against the invasion, in Kherson, Ukraine. Reuters -
Ukrainian servicemen stand guard at a military checkpoint in Kyiv. AFP -
Ukrainian refugees Sasha Alexandra and Olena embrace shortly before being allowed to cross into the United States to seek asylum in Tijuana, Mexico. They fled their city of Dnipro this month and travelled to Germany before flying to Mexico. AFP -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a broadcast speech in Kyiv, calling on citizens to 'drive the occupiers out'. EPA -
An unexploded rocket in a cemetery in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine. AFP -
A portrait of a young woman who died during a Russian attack, next to her fresh grave in the Mykolaiv cemetery. AFP -
Tents set up for Ukrainian refugees inside a train station in Bucharest, Romania. AFP -
Workers cover a sculpture outside the home of Lviv National Opera to protect it from damage amid fighting in Ukraine. Reuters -
Olena, the mother of Denys Snihur, a 25-year-old soldier killed by Russian shelling in the northern town of Ovruch, mourns him at his funeral in Lviv. Reuters -
All that is left of a shopping centre after shelling in Kyiv. AP -
Civilian volunteers attend a Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces training camp in Brovary, north-east of Kyiv. AP -
Refugees at a temporary accommodation centre in a school gymnasium in Taganrog, Russia. EPA -
Oil storage tanks burn in Chernihiv, Ukraine, in a satellite image from Maxar Technologies. EPA -
President Joe Biden discusses the US response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the Business Roundtable CEO Quarterly Meeting. EPA -
The wreck of a Russian military vehicle near Kharkiv. EPA -
Firefighters work at the site of a shopping centre bombing in Kyiv. Reuters -
Seven-year-old Amellia Anisovych, a refugee from Ukraine, sings the Ukraine national anthem at the start of a fund-raising concert in Lodz, Poland. Amellia became known for singing a song from the film 'Frozen' in a bomb shelter in Kyiv. AP -
People queue at the National Stadium in Warsaw to apply for ID numbers that will entitle them to work and receive free health care and education in Poland. AP -
Checkout tills are damaged at a supermarket in a shopping centre that was damaged in a bombing in Kyiv. Reuters -
Cars are damaged at the site of a bombing at a shopping center in Kyiv. Reuters -
A woman comforts a boy while refugees wait for Ukrainian police to check their papers and belongings in Brovary, Ukraine. AP -
A refugee family sit in front of a tent at a temporary shelter offered by the Free Christian Church in Uszka, Hungary. Getty Images -
Firefighters carry a ladder across the debris following Russian shellings that destroyed the Retroville shopping mall in Kyiv. AFP -
A rescuer inside a shopping mall damaged by an airstrike in Kyiv. Reuters
A major escalation could present Nato with hard choices.
But should Ukraine's JFO brigades be destroyed, Russia may declare that the country has been “demilitarised”. Moscow would also have control of much of the east of Ukraine.
“If you can militarily defeat some of the best Ukraine troops in the army, that would stand grounds to say that they've demilitarised Ukraine,” Brig Barry said.
